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Champions League Betting: Can Bayern’s formidable offense break down the Old Lady’s defence?

Bayern Munich Roving Curse?
Last term, Bayern Munich struggled on their trips around Europe, thwarted by Shakhtar Donetsk in a stalemate in Ukraine and defeated by Porto and Barcelona on the Iberian Peninsula in successive quarterfinal and semi-final first leg encounters. While they more than made up for it with a whopping 7-0 win at the Allianz Arena over the Ukrainians in the second leg of the R16, and turned a 3-1 lead by Porto on its head with a 6-1 evisceration at Allianz Arena in the second leg of the quarterfinal, they weren’t so lucky against Barcelona in the second leg of the semi-final, despite a valiant effort before their ardent fans. Barcelona arrived with a 3-0 lead to the Bavarian capital and netted two away goals in a 3-2 loss at the Allianz Arena to take the tie 5-3 on aggregate and advance into the final.

On the strength of their knockout campaign in the 2014-2015 Champions League, one thing is glaringly obvious – Bayern Munich are tough to beat at home. The other is they can be vulnerable on the road, which lends itself kindly to those avid Champions League enthusiasts looking for contrarian value on their wager slips. What’s more, recent road trips in domestic action have left something to be desired a draw to Bayer Leverkusen and a loss to Borussia M’gladbach, not to mention a 2-0 loss to Arsenal in the Champions League group stage.

In fact, there’s a perceptible lean towards the Old Lady amongst punters. Ever so slight though. Undoubtedly, Pep Guardiola has enviable soccer baubles at his disposal and, by and large, Bayern Munich are considered amongst the best teams in the world, if not the best – a notion underscored by not only their favourable price to win the first leg at 2.65 at bet365 but also their 4.00 price in Champions League outrights. Yet, Juventus on the interloper’s price of 3.10 at bet365 strikes an attractive pose.

Didn’t Juve traipse to the final last term against all the odds?
Don’t be fooled by the nickname. The Old Lady is a great European team that is widely respected for its vaulted defence. Their offense is often overlooked and underrated though, which, in turn, causes them to be repeatedly underrated in the broad spectrum of the competition by the markets and, even, overlooked by many punters.

Having home advantage for the first leg is a vital consideration here. Inasmuch as Bayern Munich are on par with Barcelona where an enviable bench of talent is concerned, home advantage can often supersede it, particularly when the side enjoying home advantage is of Juventus’ ilk.

The four-time defending Serie A champions are riding an 11-game home unbeaten streak which includes a stellar six straight clean sheets all while shipping 13 goals. What’s more, Juventus didn’t lose a single home fixture in the knockout stages of last year’s Champions League dream run, with wins over Borussia Dortmund, Monaco and Real Madrid.

If that’s not a ringing endorsement for the home win, what is?

Do you really feel so brave?
Betting against Bayern Munich is going to take a spot of bravery, many of which won’t be feeling we’d wager. It’s almost impossible to go against Bayern Munich, isn’t it? Although the improbable home win may not be as improbable as the odds would have it, it’s impossible to overlook Bayern’s undeniable pedigree and quality. If there were a side that could break down the Old Lady, it must be Bayern Munich. And that’s a wager many will rue if they pass on it without nary a tickle at the tempting 2.65 price at bet365.

About Joao Mourato

With a background that includes: - several years in the Sports Betting Industry; - a Physical Education Degree; - a Finance Degree; - previous work as Tennis Journalist, João Mourato presents not only a deep knowledge about tennis, but also on financial markets and the best ways to extract value from them.

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