We’ve come across a week in the La Liga schedule where real value is difficult to find. Of all the matches taking place I’ve only found value in two games and neither of those are an easy call for different reasons.
Like in previous weeks I’m working down the bottom end of the market and staying away form any “glamour” matches. That means there is nothing in the Sevilla v Villarreal match or the Barcelona v Valencia game. Instead I’m looking at the Las Palmas v Real Sociedad game and also Athletic Bilbbao v Deportivo La Coruna. Neither are glamorous but there is money to be made here.
The first of these games is Las Palmas v Real Sociedad and there is a shock selection here for me. The tip is to go for Las Palmas who have been abysmal this season. Despite that, and Real Sociedad’s ok-ish form (2 wins in their last 5 games), this selection holds good.
With bets like this it’s important to shop around and get the best odds you can get. Right now that’s 3.96 with Pinnacle but I would not go below 3.9 if the odds move against us. I think that’s unlikely though (unless the bookies follow these articles) as the odds are likely to shorten on Real Sociedad instead, giving us even more value on this selection.
My second bet of the weekend is on what may well be the least inviting match of the weekend. Athletic Bilbao are lower down the table than I would have expected at the start of the season but they are 13 points ahead of this weekend’s visitors Deportivo La Coruna. Bilbao actually have a very good record against Depor and my secondary system actually has the home side down for a win in this one which causes me a bit of a problem as my main system has picked out an away win.
The odds are excellent at 5.69 with Pinnacle but that fairly accurately depicts what this bet is. A long shot.
Enough of these kind of bets do come off over the course of season for me to put my trust into this selection. I won’t be watching though as a) I don’t want to watch this one and b) you should not feel you have to watch a game just because you have a bet on it, just as you shouldn’t feel you have to have a bet just because you’re watching a game.
So, two risky bets for La Liga this weekend but if just one comes off we’ll be showing a nice profit.