Five Must Bet NFL Regular Season Win Totals for the AFC

Jason Paglia

Monday, May 13, 2019 9:18 PM UTC

Monday, May. 13, 2019 9:18 PM UTC

Find out the five bets that you must take on the win totals market for the upcoming NFL season on the American Football Conference.

<div><h2><strong>Denver Broncos</strong></h2><p>The Denver Broncos will hope for a mile worth of improvement off a disappointing (6-10) 2018 regular season. One thing was certain for John Elway coming into the offseason, the quarterback was the biggest problem. Last seasons QB signing lasted one year. Whatever hope that Elway had for Case Keenum had a 16 game expiration date. Looking to make another QB move ahead of this coming season, Elway grabbed Joe Flacco from the Baltimore Ravens. Learning from last season, he made sure he had a backup plan for the 2019 season drafting Missouri Tiger Drew Lock in the 2nd round. This season, like most seasons for most teams will depend entirely on Elway’s QB pickups. With a new head coach in Vic Fangio and a new starter to run the offense on the field, there are to many balls in the air coming into a new season. While I do give the Denver Broncos a B+ Draft Grade for drafting a solid freshman class, they will not make a substantial impact on the field this season with the exception of TE Noah Fant. The free agent signings have not impressed me at all. It looks like another (6-10) season for the team a mile High.</p><p style="text-align:center;"><img alt src="https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/65b548d/2147483647/strip/true/crop/3262x1835+0+0/resize/1280x720!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fewscripps.brightspotcdn.com%2F04%2Fce%2F0f0b5efd41a5bce684a3dfdb4d88%2Fflacco-eway-fangio.jpeg" style="width:700px;height:394px;" /></p><ul> <li><strong>Denver Broncos – UNDER 7 Wins at 10/11 (1.90)</strong></li></ul><p><br /><u>DRAFT CLASS- B+:</u></p><ul> <li>Noah Fant</li> <li>Dalton Risner</li> <li>Drew Lock</li> <li>Dre’Mont Jones</li> <li>Justin Hollins</li> <li>Juwann Winfree</li></ul><p><br /><u>FREE AGENTS- C+</u></p><ul> <li>Ja’Wuan James</li> <li>Bryce Callahan</li> <li>Kareem Jackson</li> <li>Joe Flacco(via trade)</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Strength of Schedule- 2nd </strong></p><p><strong>2018 Season Record- (6-10)</strong><br /><br /><strong><img alt src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6r7Jxr8BGTmMiJusN_JM01jkoAg=/0x0:2724x1896/1200x800/filters:focal(1328x306:1762x740)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62385105/1063323660.jpg.0.jpg" style="width:700px;height:467px;" /></strong></p><p><strong>Indianapolis Colts</strong></p><p>There might be no team I am higher on coming into the 2019 NFL Regular Season than the Indianapolis Colts. Quite honestly, what’s not to like? I can give you the answer, not much. For years they have had the hardest piece of the puzzle solved. Andrew Luck is a legitimate top five, franchise quarterback full stop. If at any point you are talking to your friends about the best quarterbacks in the league and his name is not on their list, find smarter friends. For the last decade a solid defense and offensive line has held them back. That has changed. They have the best young offensive line in football. I would still give the Cowboys O-line the edge overall but the Colts with Castonzo, Nelson, Kelly, Glowinski and Smith are right behind them. Last year ‘Football Outsiders’ (THE source for NFL analytics) ranked the Colts the 2nd best passing offensive line and the 4th best offensive line in football period. The Defensive side of the ball has also been a big problem for the Colts historically. Even when the Colts had Peyton Manning the defense was horrible. That is no longer the case. The Colts drafted a monster a year ago in Darius Leonard who went on to lead the league in tackles in his rookie year. With the addition of Leonard last season the Colts went from 27th in defensive efficiency to 10th in the league a year ago. That will only improve with a new draft class and crop of free agent signings. I am really looking forward to watching this team this year and already have a future on them to win the chip at 16-1. The sky is the limit.</p><ul> <li><strong>Indianapolis Colts – OVER 9.5 Wins at 5/6 (1.83)</strong></li></ul><p><br /><u>DRAFT CLASS- B</u></p><ul> <li>Rock Ya-Sin</li> <li>Ben Banogu</li> <li>Parris Campbell</li> <li>Bobby Okereke</li> <li>Khari Willis</li> <li>Marvell Tell</li> <li>E.J. Speed</li> <li>Gerri Green</li></ul><p><br /><u>FREE AGENTS- B</u></p><ul> <li>Devin Funchess</li> <li>Justin Houston</li> <li>Spencer Ware</li> <li>Pierre Desir (back)</li> <li>Clayton Geathers (back)</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Strength of Schedule- 7th</strong></p><p><strong>2018 Season Record- (9-7)</strong><br /><br /><strong><img alt src="https://usattitanswire.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/usatsi_11414752.jpg?w=1000&amp;h=600&amp;crop=1" style="width:700px;height:420px;" /></strong></p><p><strong>Tennessee Titans</strong></p><p>At a quick glance it might not look like it, but the Titans are a team that I expect to regress in 2019. I have heard numerous analysts say that the Titans are primed for a big season in 2019 and well…. they are wrong. The argument is, they have what is perceived as a very good defense and an excellent running game. Now historically, a very good defense and a excellent running game has meant that a team should win more games then they lose but, I don’t believe they have either. If you really dive into the analytics, the defense is closer to a 20th ranked defense in the league. The total yards say that the Titans had the 8th ranked defense in the NFL. That is misleading, the real stat that should be used to judge a defense is DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value Over Average). The Titans DVOA puts their defense at 19th. That is way closer to what my eyes saw on the field in 2018. The second misleading stat for the Titan’s 2018 season is being ranked the 7th best rush team in the league. If you dive deeper into why they rushed for so many yards in 2018 it’s simple. They have NO passing game…. Like, at all. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has not been impressive at any point in his young NFL career and it only continued to get worse last year. The Tennessee Titans were ranked 29TH in passing last year and I expect it won’t get any better this year. Now that teams realize what they rely heavily on, they will stack up in the box to stop the run and if that is the case they are in trouble. If they can’t run the ball successfully they might win 5 games this year. In a division where the Colts and Texans may be playoff teams and a Jacksonville team that got a huge upgrade at QB this one should be an easy one.</p><ul> <li><strong>Tennessee Titans – UNDER 8.5 Wins at 2/3 (1.66)</strong></li></ul><p><br /><u>DRAFT CLASS- B-</u></p><ul> <li>Jeffrey Simmons</li> <li>AJ Brown</li> <li>Nate Davis</li> <li>Amani Hooker</li> <li>D’Andre Walker</li> <li>David Long Jr</li></ul><p><br /><u>FREE AGENTS- C+</u></p><ul> <li>Adam Humphries</li> <li>Roger Saffold</li> <li>Cameron Wake</li> <li>Ryan Tannehill (trade)</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Strength of Schedule- 9th</strong></p><p><strong>2018 Season Record- (10-6)</strong><br /><br /><img alt src="https://imagesvc.timeincapp.com/v3/fan/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdawgpounddaily.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2017%2F07%2F1074687572.jpeg&amp;c=sc&amp;w=850&amp;h=560" style="width:700px;height:460px;" /></p><p><strong>Cleveland Browns</strong></p><p>OK, can we pump the breaks on the Cleveland Browns please? Just a little bit…. Maybe? There are only 4 teams currently in the league with shorter odds to win the Super Bowl then the Browns. I feel like I am in an episode of the Twilight Zone. We are talking about a team that is one year removed from a winless season. Think about that for a minute, they went 0-16 in 2017. Things have definitely changed since then, I completely agree. They have a legitimate franchise QB in Baker Mayfield. I thought the Browns were crazy last season to pass on Sam Darnold and draft Mayfield with the first pick in the draft. It appears I was wrong. I had a front row seat as a diehard Jets fan and right now Mayfield is better than Darnold period. With the right QB, all that was left for the Browns front office to do was build a formidable team around him. They have done that in spades. The job that John Dorsey has done in only a couple years has been nothing short of magnificent. All that said, you have to learn how to walk before you can learn how to run. They just learned how to crawl with a (7-8-1) season. This season I expect them to walk. What has gone unsaid by all the analysts picking them to make the playoffs this year is how many things have to go perfect for the Browns to win 10 games. They have brought in so many new pieces that any little rift by a few of these players with big personalities can blow up the locker room in a hurry. Then there is the potential for injuries. They have no wiggle room at all, they need every key acquisition they picked up in the offseason to not only play but play well. Any combination of one or two injuries to key players for an extended period of time and this team is not winning 10 games. If absolutely everything goes perfectly are they capable of winning 10 games? Yes they are, but when has a season gone completely right for the team you root for? Let me answer for you, never.</p><p>Last season they were ranked 12th and 17th respectively in defense and offense OVA. That and a franchise quarterback is the foundation for them to finally have an 8-8 or 9-7 year but Mayfield made a ton of mistakes last season. All of those mistakes will not go away in his Sophomore campaign. This team is still a year away in my opinion but watch out for them in 2020.</p><ul> <li><strong>Cleveland Browns – UNDER 9.5 Wins at 5/6 (1.83)</strong></li></ul><p><br /><u>DRAFT CLASS- A-</u></p><ul> <li>Greedy Williams</li> <li>Sione Takitaki</li> <li>Sheldrick Redwine</li> <li>Mack Wilson</li> <li>Austin Seibert</li> <li>Drew Forbes</li> <li>Donnie Lewis Jr.</li></ul><p><br /><u>FREE AGENTS- A+</u></p><ul> <li>Odell Beckham Jr.</li> <li>Kareem Hunt</li> <li>Olivier Vernon</li> <li>Sheldon Richardson</li> <li>Morgan Burnett</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Strength of Schedule- 23rd</strong></p><p><strong>2018 Season Record- (7-8-1)</strong><br /><br /><img alt src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyhsiM_XcAEXQwK.jpg" style="width:700px;height:467px;" /></p><h2><strong>New England Patriots</strong></h2><p>This one is going to be short and sweet. I am done forecasting the demise of the New England Patriots until it actually happens. Do they still have the Superb football mind on this planet in Bill Belichick? CHECK. Do they still have the ageless enigma that is Tom Brady? CHECK. Ohh and they have the 4th easiest schedule in the league this year to boot? YUP. Welp, OK then.</p><ul> <li><strong>New England Patriots – OVER 11 Win at 4/5 (1.80)</strong></li></ul><p><br /><u>DRAFT CLASS- A</u></p><ul> <li>N’Keal Harry</li> <li>Joejuan Williams</li> <li>Chase Winovich</li> <li>Damien Harris</li> <li>Yodney Cajuste</li> <li>Hijalte Froholdt</li> <li>Jarrett Stidham</li> <li>Byron Cowart</li> <li>Jake Bailey</li> <li>Ken Webster</li></ul><p><br /><u>FREE AGENTS- A+</u></p><ul> <li>Michael Bennett</li> <li>Demaryius Thomas</li> <li>Austin Seferian-Jenkins</li> <li>Cedric Lang</li> <li>Matt LaCosse</li> <li>Mike Pennel</li> <li>Maurice Harris</li> <li>Terrence Brooks</li> <li>Bruce Ellington</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Strength of Schedule- 27th</strong></p><p><strong>2018 Season Record- (11-5)</strong></p></div>
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