March Madness by the Numbers: NCAA Championship Game Best Bet

Jason Paglia

Sunday, April 7, 2019 8:36 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 7, 2019 8:36 PM UTC

The NCAA College Basketball National Championship Tournament started with 68 teams and we are down to 2.

<p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://www.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/public/images/2018-09-22/2019-Final-Four-logo.png" style="width:300px;height:214px" /></p><p>The two best defenses in the nation this season long have run the table in this tournament and now meet in Minnesota for the National Championship. AP Coach of the Chris Beard who has done a magnificent job for Texas Tech this season was coaching in Division III 6 short years ago. On the flip side, Coach Tony Bennet and his Virginia Cavaliers seem almost destined to win a National Championship. The last second shot that forced overtime against Purdue in the Elite Eight was pure insanity, and what happened last night in the Final Four left me speechless. People overuse the word unbelievable in sports often, but last night was truly amazing. Kyle Guy hits a clutch three to cut it too one and then gets fouled with a half second left in the game and hits another clutch three free throws to send Virginia to the title game. Regardless of what happens in tomorrows game, both these teams should be proud of the season they have had. Texas Tech has been picked out of Power 5 obscurity and it was only a year ago that Virginia was the first one seed to lose to a sixteen seed in the opening round of the tournament.</p><p> </p><h2>TEXAS TECH (31-6) vs VIRGINIA (34-3) </h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/basketball/us/ncaa-basketball/virginia-vs-texas-tech-3769402/" target="_blank" title="Texas Tech vs Virginia Odds Board"><strong>Tuesday 9<sup>th</sup>, Apr 2019</strong></a></p><p>Virginia came into the tournament with national championship expectations as the ACC regular season champions. Although they lost three times this year, they have only been bested by two teams this season (Duke twice). Even though Texas Tech didn’t fly under the radar to me personally this year (I bet a 33-1 future for them to win the national championship before the year started), they were relatively forgotten this season. They have been an underdog the last four rounds of the tournament, including the national championship game where they opened up 1 point underdog. This game should be a masterclass in defense as these teams come into the game with the number one and number three scoring defense in the country. The field has been reduced down to two teams, let’s break this national title game down by the numbers.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5caa600ea5f69800c2ea4f85/original-VIRGINIA-vs-TEXAS-TECH" style="width:606px;height:325px" /></p><p>I had two main concerns coming into this tournament for Texas Tech. One, would they be able to put six games together when they would play against some offensive juggernauts along the way and two, even though they have been one of the best defensive teams in the nation, would the offensive scoring droughts cost them. I no longer have these concerns. Now it is one game. Virginia was one of the best teams in the country in offensive efficiency this year, but they have seriously struggled offensively in the tournament. Ty Jerome has been the offensive constant in this tournament for Virginia. The Cavaliers were up ten points and looked poised for victory, and then Ty Jerome left the game after his forth foul. After that point Virginia looked lost offensively.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2018/12/24/c83fb2ce-0b23-44ef-bc5d-037d475cd26b/thumbnail/770x433/aef4b0d0a087363f07ba729e4b2461fe/texas-tech.jpg" style="width:670px;height:377px" /></p><p>Despite the late game heroics by Kyle Guy he has not had a good tournament offensively. Jerome left the games , Virginia couldn’t score and Auburn went from being down ten points to up four points with 25 seconds left in the game. It will only get harder for Virginia tomorrow. They have not played a defense even remotely close to the caliber of the Texas Tech defense. If Ty Jerome struggles or gets into foul trouble, Texas Tech should win this game and comfortably. The regular season heroes for Virginia have seriously struggled in this tournament. De’Andre Hunter has been MIA the entire tournament and aside from what Kyle Guy did late in yesterday’s Final Four game he has not been dependable in the tournament at all. On the flip side, Jarrett Culver struggled yesterday for Texas Tech, he has been the offensive lynch pin all season long but Matt Mooney and Moretti stepped up when Texas Tech needed it. Texas Tech has a good enough offense to beat a Virginia team that is struggling offensively. The dogs bark tomorrow night and the Texas Tech Red Raiders , who I have been sky high on all year get the chicken and Chris Beard’s first National Championship.</p><p><strong>THE PICK – Texas Tech +1.5 at 10/11 (1.90) @ <a href="http://affiliate.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker">Pinnacle</a></strong></p>
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