March Madness by the Numbers: Sunday 24th March Best Bets

Jason Paglia

Saturday, March 23, 2019 2:15 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 23, 2019 2:15 PM UTC

The 1st round of the NCAA Tournament went off without a hitch. For the most part, almost all the teams that were supposed to win, won. There were however a few upsets along the way by teams the betting public probably isn’t familiar with, but that’s why they call it March Madness. Next up… Round 2.

<h2>TEXAS TECH (27-6) vs BUFFALO (32-3)</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Texas Tech vs Buffalo">Sunday March 24th, BOK Center</a><br /><br />This will be one of the best matchups all tournament. The Buffalo Bulls absolutely ran through the Mid American Conference this year in devastating fashion. The offensive juggernaut finished the regular season 32-3 on their way to a MAC Championship and automatic birth. If offense is the name of the game for Buffalo, enter Texas Tech with the best defense in the nation. The Red Raiders were dominant in the Big 12 Conference this year and though they didn’t win the Big 12 Conference Championship, they still finished the regular season at 27-6 which was the best overall record in the conference. On the surface this game looks like a toss-up but let’s dive deeper into the numbers.</p><p><img alt src="" style="width:603px;height:357px" /></p><p><img alt src=" " style="width:600px" /><img alt src="" style="width:600px;height:300px" /></p><p>To me this game comes down to two factors. The first one being, level of competition. As good as Buffalo has been this season, they cut their teeth in the MAC Conference against teams like Kent State, Central Michigan and Ball State all year. That pales in comparison to the teams that Texas Tech ran through this season, such as Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State. To put it plainly, the Big 12 is on another level. The second factor in this game is Jarret Culver. Aside from Ja Murant, Culver had the best performance of the first round going for 29 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists. As gifted as Buffalo has been offensively they haven’t seen a defense anywhere near this good. I expect Texas Tech to slow down that potent offense and lean on Jarret Culver down the stretch to get them over the hump and in into the Sweet 16. Lay it.<br /><br /><strong>THE PICK</strong> – <a href="" target="_blank" title="Texas Tech -3">Texas Tech -3 at 10/11 (1.90)</a><br /><br /> </p><h2><strong>VIRGINIA (30-3) vs OKLAHOMA (20-13)</strong></h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Virginia vs Oklahoma">Sunday March 24th, Colonial Life Arena</a><br /><br />This season three out of the four best teams in the nation reside in the ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference). Of those three, it was Virginia that posted the best regular season and conference record at 30-3 and 16-2 (in conference) respectively. In addition to those gaudy numbers, Virginia was tied for the forth best ATS number in all of D1. The Oklahoma Sooners however struggled at times this year. They posted a respectable but not great 20-13 record in the regular season but finished their conference schedule with a subpar 7-11 effort. While Oklahoma could have won more games this year, against the number they got the job done finishing in the top 12 teams in the country ATS.</p><p><img alt src="" style="width:615px;height:324px" /></p><p><img alt src="" style="width:600px;height:338px" /><br /><br />On the surface you might think this total of 128.5 and is low, so you might look to bet the over here, BUT is it really low? Virginia has the number one scoring defense, the number one 3pt. FG % defense and the number four 2pt FG% defense in the country. They are only allowing opponents to score an average of 55 PPG which is ridiculous and they don’t give up points up off turnovers because again, they are the number one team in the nation at fewest turnovers allowed. When you add all that up and throw in the fact that this year against non-conference opponents Virginia games are going under at a rate of 61.5%, so it seems like the play here is under 128.5.<br /><br /><strong>THE PICK:</strong> <a href=";mtid=402" target="_blank" title="Virgina/Oklahoma u128.5">Virginia / Oklahoma u128.5 at 10/11 (1.90) </a></p>
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