Ed Hawkins (@cricketbetting) says runs are in the offing in Taunton and the Kiwi is first in line.
<div><h2>England v Bangladesh</h2><h2><strong>Saturday 10.30</strong></h2><p>If Bangladesh upset England here it will throw the tournament into chaos. Of course, as punters who love to see a too-short jolly downed we’re keeping our fingers crossed.</p><p>And there’s nothing wrong with taking big prices about the Banglas here. <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&f=1" target="_blank">Bet365</a> and <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=acd6b93a-905e-45af-90ef-7eb1df661829&f=1" target="_blank">Coral</a> go 5/1 (6.0). Just be aware that it’s very much pitch dependant. If the wicket in Cardiff is tacky and sticky, allowing Bangladesh spinners to cause consternation for England’s batsmen, you’re in the game. But if it’s flat, or there is seam and swing, it could be a loser.</p><h2> </h2><h2>Afghanistan v New Zealand</h2><p><strong>Saturday 13.30</strong></p><p>The World Cup goes out to the shires for the first time and there will be plenty of punters who will be lining this one up for a monstrous runs bet. The contest takes place at Taunton, hone of Somerset, a ground which is regarded as the best batting surface in the country.</p><p>The wicket is hard and flat and helped to school Jos Buttler, who grew up playing extravagant shots there. The boundaries are not exactly monstrous, either, and this will be one of the smallest venues to host a World Cup match for some time.</p><p>Of course, the problem with expecting big runs and betting on them are two different things. The toss is crucial here because the last thing we want to do is load up only for Afghanistan to bat first. They’re going to struggle to do the damage that New Zealand could do.</p><p>But if the Kiwis bat first, 400 could very much be on the cards, particularly with the weather forecast good – no rain is expected at the moment.</p><p>The first price that gets us thinking is <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&f=1">Betfair’s</a> 11/4 (3.75) that over 16.5 sixes are hit. But, again, what if the Afghans bat first? More likely, then, is the 6/4 (2.5) that both teams bust 249. On a tight ground, on a good wicket 250 for Afghanistan could be like 210 on a normal international venue.</p><p>As far as our pure value bets go, it’s Martin Guptill v Ross Taylor for top Kiw bat with 21% and 36% hit rates respectively on two-year form. Guptill could bridge the gap because, as an opener, he will get a chance to flay a weak Afghan attack.</p><p>It could be smarter to bet on one man rather than several if you will. Guptill is 5/4 (2.25) with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&f=1" target="_blank">Betfair</a> to score a fifty. Against sides outside the top seven, he averages 54 runs per innings (not outs included as a completed innings) and he has passed the mark 12 times out of 25. Value.</p><h2>Best Tips for the Match</h2><p><strong>Martin Guptill to score a fifty 5/4 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&f=1" target="_blank">Betfair</a></strong></p></div>