Can England win their first World Cup final?
<div><h2>England vs New Zealand</h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/cricket/int/world-cup/new-zealand-vs-england-3838977/?mtid=6" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><strong>Sunday 14 July 2019 at Lord’s</strong></a></p><p>England have made their first World Cup final since 1992 after winning their first knockout game since 1996. New Zea-land are in their second consecutive final. Something’s got to give at Lord’s on Sunday for the showpiece.</p><p>Unfortunately for the Kiwis it is going to be another dose of heartbreak. They are vastly inferior to this England unit, who have looked awesome ever since they were asked to play do-or-die from the last two games of the group stages.</p><p>It’s a shame because we love nothing more than competitive betting heats but World Cup finals rarely are – they have been a procession for the favourites in each of the last five editions.</p><p>The hyperbole is always the same. Can the underdog down the champions-elect? What if they can get the ball to seam and swing? What if their one or two stellar performers produce something extraordinary? What if pressure gets to the favourites? It doesn’t happen.</p><p>Alas it seems even less likely to happen at HQ. If New Zealand were to win it would be a Black Swan event for the Black Caps. Black Swan events, as we know, are ultra rare occurrences. Well, the Black Caps pulled one out of the bag with their extraordinary semi-final win over India (recommended in these pages by the way). So two in row? Two in a week? Nope. Didn’t think so.</p><p>Of course, the odds entirely reflect England’s likely dominance. They are no better than 1.33 (1/3) with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Betfair</a>, <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=acd6b93a-905e-45af-90ef-7eb1df661829&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Coral</a>, <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ladbrokes</a> and William Hill. <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/cricket/int/world-cup/new-zealand-vs-england-3838977/?mtid=6" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">New Zealand is 3.75 (11/4) with Bet365</a>. On the head-to-head, England have four wins in the last five against the Kiwis.</p><p>So where is our bet? It’s on the top New Zealand bowler mar-ket where we have an opportunity to get with the excellent Lockie Ferguson. Ferguson is rated at 4.5 (7/2) by Bet365 and William Hill. On our two-year data survey we know he has a better chance than that. He actually wins at a rate of 4.33 (10/3).</p><p>It’s not a huge edge in our favour but bear in mind that the two bowlers ahead of him in the betting – Trent Boult and Matt Henry – are far too short for how often they win. Fergu-son is the only man who is priced up incorrectly in the mar-ket. Value.</p><h2><strong>Best Bet</strong></h2><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><strong>Back Lockie Ferguson top NZ bowler 4.5 Bet365</strong></a></p></div>