UFC 240 Squared Up: Edgar vs. Holloway Betting Predictions

Jason Paglia

Wednesday, July 24, 2019 5:11 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 24, 2019 5:11 PM UTC

Can Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar break through one more time on Saturday night?
<div><p>Another phenomenal weekend for the Odds Market MMA team. Last weekend Dave Bets crushed it with his weekly articles and I was able to sustain our momentum on the ‘Squared Up’ series. With a 77% win rate over our last 13 events, UFC 240 presents a great opportunity to bank more units.</p><p>Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada is the site for UFC 240. While Saturday nights fight card does not meet the standard of your normal UFC PPV, the headliner will NOT disappoint. The Main Event between the 145 lbs. King, Max Holloway and future Hall of Famer Frankie Edgar has been on the MMA worlds wish list for years. Now that it’s finally a reality and will come to fruition this Saturday night, it’s time to grind the angles to find the edge. Let’s get after it!</p><p> </p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>FRANKIE EDGAR (23-6-1) vs MAX HOLLOWAY (20-4) </strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/frankie-edgar-vs-max-holloway-3838253/?mtid=126" target="_blank" title="Frankie Edgar vs Max Holloway Odds Board"><strong>04:55 - Sunday 28<sup>th</sup>, Jul 2019</strong></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ePdcei0osleqahwSCw_q2kYxDaY=/0x0:2596x3654/1200x800/filters:focal(1070x594:1484x1008)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58273219/682793130.jpg.0.jpg" style="width:100%" /></p><h2><strong>Frankie Edgar:</strong></h2><p>Frankie ‘The Answer’ Edgar holds a special place in my heart. He grew up in Toms River, New Jersey about an hour away from where I live. He is a hero in our state. He grew up as a phenomenal high school wrestler that qualified for multiple national tournaments. He continued his wrestling career in college before pursuing a career in mixed martial arts.</p><p>He amassed a 5-0 record before getting the opportunity of a lifetime at UFC: 67. That night he won a unanimous decision against Tyson Griffin. He would go on to win his next two fights in the UFC at event 73 and 78, but it would be his fourth fight in the UFC that started his massive rise in popularity. At UFC Fight Night 13 Edgar would fight Gray Maynard for the first of three times. The trilogy would catapult Edgar into the hearts and minds of the MMA community. He would go 1-1-1 against Maynard in those three fights. With a decade of hard work under Edgar’s belt, he was finally given the opportunity to fight for the UFC lightweight championship against BJ Penn at UFC 112. He won the belt that night and again the first fight in another epic trilogy where he would beat Penn all three times cementing his legacy in the sport. He walks into the cage Saturday night as the #4 ranked featherweight in the world and on the door step of immortality once again. Can he break through one more time? That is the question…</p><p><strong>STATS</strong>:</p><p><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d38958db25c0761f5c6f923/original-frankie-edgar-stats" style="width:100%" /></p><p> <strong>PROS</strong>:</p><p>• <strong>Wrestling</strong> (Frankie’s wrestling is legendary for the 145/155 divisions. He was the benchmark for the double leg and high crotch takedowns, and absolutely absurd top control for his size. He is getting up in age, especially for an MMA fighter, but strength is one of the last things to go.)</p><p>• <strong>Striking</strong> <strong>Accuracy</strong> (He was never known for the heaviest hands in the division but his accuracy in the pocket is fantastic.)</p><p>• <strong>Fight</strong> <strong>IQ</strong> (We are talking about a guy that made his UFC debut in 2007. Yea, let that sink in for a minute, I’ll wait...)</p><p>• <strong>Stamina</strong> (The kid is a robot. 30 professional MMA fights and I have never seen him gas out. That’s through multiple 5 round main event and championship fights and 2 grueling trilogies.)</p><p> </p><p><strong>CONS</strong>:</p><p>• <strong>Chin</strong> (It pains me to say this, but it needs be said. For 12 years Frankie Edgar had a mythical chin. It would not crack, it was made of iron. After 11 years in the Octagon it changed in one night. That 37 year old chin that had been through so many wars, finally cracked in his last fight against Brian Ortega. Historically, that is a VERY BAD SIGN. When it finally happens, it means it WILL happen again at some point.)</p><p>• <strong>Size</strong> (A younger Frankie Edgar was so proficient in what he practiced, and because of this he overcame the size differential in almost every fight in his career. Here is the problem… Now he is two years shy of 40 and Saturday night he steps into the cage with the best to ever put the gloves on at 145 lbs., and has 5 inches in height and a reach advantage on him. That is a real problem for Frank on Saturday night.)</p><p> </p><p><img alt src="https://nesncom.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/max-holloway2.jpg?w=640" style="width:100%" /></p><h2><strong>Max Holloway:</strong></h2><p>Max Holloway began his career at the age of 19 years old. After a 4-0 pro record, one of the most popular MMA websites in the states ranked top MMA prospects. They would rank Holloway as the #7 featherweight prospect in the world in 2012. Later that year, the UFC decided to offer Holloway a contract making him the youngest MMA fighter on the UFC roster at the time.</p><p>At UFC 143 Holloway was a last minute replacement to fight Dustin Poirier. Holloway would go on to lose his first fight by submission. After his initial loss , he would win 12 of the next 15 fights. In 2016 he was finally given a title opportunity against then featherweight champion Anthony Pettis. He beat Anthony Pettis by TKO to win the featherweight strap. Since then he has defended his title three times and goes into Saturday nights fight as the undisputed king of the featherweight division. Can he defend his belt for a fourth time?</p><p><strong>STATS</strong>:</p><p><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d38961eb25c0761f5c6f924/original-max-holloway-stats" style="width:100%" /></p><p><strong>PROS</strong>:</p><p>•<strong>Chin</strong> (With the exception of the Diamond, who might have had Max wobbled in the 4th and 5th round(even though he still made it to a decision in a heavier weight class) NOBODY has really cracked that chin. He is very much like a younger Frankie Edgar in that regard. Ironic isn’t it?)</p><p>•<strong>Volume</strong> (Max Holloway might be the greatest volume striker / round winner of all time. Yes his striking is excellent but it’s so much more than that. He doesn’t stop punching you in the face… like ever. The kid lands almost 7 strikes per minute. That is incredible. 35 significant strikes at a minimum per round, already puts him in the driver’s seat to win any round before his opponent steps in the cage.)</p><p>•<strong>Striking</strong> (I mentioned how good Max Holloway’s striking is in the volume bracket above, BUT he is way too talented a striker not to give him his do again. He is an assassin. The accuracy of his punches are automatic. It is worth noting that his power is not the best in the division, this is why he doesn’t knock his opponents out early in fights. It’s the accuracy and volume that takes the toll, not the power.</p><p>•<strong>Takedown</strong> <strong>Defense</strong> (How many times have you seen Max Holloway on his back during a fight logging mat time? Not f*****g many right? He defends 8.4 of every 10 takedowns attempted. That is MONUMENTAL going into a fight with a wrestler as established as Frankie. Edgar already knows he lost the stand up battle before he walks in the cage, so what is Frank going to try to do? Exactly…)</p><p> </p><p><strong>CONS</strong>:</p><p>•<strong>Ground Game</strong> (It is really hard to find flaws in people that are the best of all time in their weight class. If I had to judge the unjudgable, I suppose it would be Holloway’s ground game. It is only because we hardly EVER see him on the mat rolling around during a fight. From everything I hear, Max is very serviceable in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu but unfortunately, we can only judge what we see…Other than that, he is a monster.)</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5cf03e868744ba9e8d3ce427/original-ufc-153-veredict" style="width:100%" /></p><h2><strong>THE VERDICT</strong></h2><p>This one is going to be painful for me boys… In the state that I live in, Frankie Edgar is a hero. The kid from Toms River, New Jersey who became the UFC lightweight champion of the world. The problem is this is not the 2010 Frankie Edgar, it’s the 2019 version. He is still going to step in that cage and throw everything he has at Max Holloway, unfortunately it won’t be enough. This is not a contender that is trying to beat Edgar. Max Holloway is the greatest UFC Featherweight EVER. Not maybe, not in the conversation, not it’s debatable…. E-V-E-R.</p><p>I see this fight playing out much like the Aldo/Edgar fight. Frankie lost the striking battle in every exchange, and Aldo was the same size as Frank, but Aldo was too fast. The second element in that fight was Frankie could not take Aldo down. He tried multiple times every round. He would come in for the takedown and get hit 3 times before he was able to grab Aldo’s legs. Now he faces Holloway who beat Aldo twice, is 6 inches taller than Aldo and has the reach advantage. Add in the fact that Max throws more volume than anyone in the division, he is more accurate than anyone in the division, AND he stuffs 8.4 of every 10 takedowns attempted. Where is Edgar’s path to victory in this fight???</p><p>All of that adds up to a really long day for Frankie Edgar. The only question you have to ask yourself when betting this fight is will Holloway get it done before the end of the 5th round? That is not an easy question to answer because Edgar is a scrappy kid from Jersey that has the heart of a lion.</p><p>The X-Factor in this fight is his chin. For a decade his chin was like a folk tale. You could smash it with a hammer and it wouldn’t crack. Welp….. when you get old s**t starts to crack, and crack it did. In Edgar’s last fight Brian Ortega dropped him, and when the seal is finally broken, it’s fair game.</p><p>Max finds a way to get it done inside the distance on Saturday night. Book it!</p><p><strong>LEAN</strong>:</p><ul> <li>Max Holloway Inside the Distance at 2/1 (3.00) 1u</li></ul><div> </div><div style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=162&amp;a=ec641d03-1e6d-4096-9f5f-d2a6939022d0&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0005/1349915/Biggest-Ever-Bet-Boost-1280x480-English-UK.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></div></div>
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