UFC 244 Diaz vs Masvidal: Betting Tips & Predictions 'The Dogs and Their Odds'

DaveBets

Wednesday, October 30, 2019 3:37 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2019 3:37 PM UTC

The dogs stayed in their kennels last week but now we head to UFC 244 which could possibly be the most talent-stacked card of the year. Plus money predictions anyone?
<div><h2 align="center"><strong><em>The Dogs Odds</em></strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><b>UFC 244 takes place on Saturday 2</b><b><sup>nd</sup></b><b> November live from Madison Square Garden, NY</b></p><div style="text-align:center"> </div><p style="text-align:center"> </p><h2 style="text-align:center"><b>Julio Arce vs Hakeem Dawodu</b></h2><div><p style="text-align:center"><b>Featherweight Bout </b><br /><b>UFC Betting Prediction:<a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/hakeem-dawodu-vs-julio-arce-3961261/?mtid=126" target="_blank" title="Fighting Odds"> Julio Arce to win </a>@ 2.20 [+120] <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">with Unibet</a></b></p></div><p> </p><h2><strong><u>Julio Arce</u></strong></h2><div> </div><p><strong>Age: </strong>30</p><p><strong>Record: </strong>16-3-0</p><p><strong>Height: </strong>5ft 7”</p><p><strong>Reach: </strong>70”</p><p><strong>Current Streak: </strong>1 win</p><p><strong>Gym: </strong>Tiger Schulmann’s MMA</p><p><strong>Notable Gym Members: </strong>Jimmie Rivera, Shane Burgos &amp; Lyman Good</p><p> </p><p><strong><u>Significant Strikes</u> (UFC) </strong></p><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>4.76</p><p><strong>Accuracy: </strong>38%<strong> </strong></p><p><strong>Defence: </strong>69%</p><p> </p><p><strong><u>Grappling (UFC)</u></strong></p><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>0.48</p><p><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>28%</p><p><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>93%</p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/t1r_TH70Xyo\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>Julio Arce makes his fourth appearance under the UFC banner this weekend as the opening fight for the incredibly stacked UFC 244 PPV. 3-1 inside the UFC, Julio has all the tools. We can sometimes neglect the well-rounded fighters when certain UFC athletes have exceptional advantages in one certain area e.g. Jiu-Jitsu, Wrestling, and Striking. No problem for Julio, he’s a second-degree Black-Belt in mixed martial arts and was a former golden glove boxing champion.</p><p>Madison Square Garden will be the wrecking ground where Julio will aim to avenge his first UFC loss against Sheymon Moraes at ‘UFC 230 Cormier vs Lewis’. Respectable victories against the likes of Dan Ige, Daniel Teymur &amp; Julian Erosa put Julio in the toughest striking battle he’s faced in the UFC when he steps in the octagon with Dawodu.</p><p> </p><h2><strong><u>Hakeem Dawodu</u></strong></h2><div> </div><p><strong>Age: </strong>28</p><p><strong>Record: </strong>10-1-1</p><p><strong>Height: </strong>5ft 8”</p><p><strong>Reach: </strong>73.5”</p><p><strong>Current Streak: </strong>1 loss</p><p><strong>Gym: </strong>Champions Creed MMA</p><p><strong>Notable Gym Members:</strong> N/A</p><p> </p><p><strong><u>Significant Strikes (UFC)</u> </strong></p><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>5.83</p><p><strong>Accuracy: </strong>48%</p><p><strong>Defence: </strong>59%</p><p> </p><p><strong><u>Grappling (UFC)</u></strong></p><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>0</p><p><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>0%</p><p><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>88%</p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/SczGBhTNn-w\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>Hakeem Dawodu has made light-work of his previous three opponents. A debut for the UFC in 2018 would see Dawodu come up short against Danny Henry since then, Dawodu has sliced through the opposition; riding a 3-fight win streak.</p><p>The first fight of the night at UFC 244 will put Dawodu back in the octagon with an obviously well-matched opponent in Julio Arce. Dawodu has been training in Muay Thai boxing since the age of 16, effective punches are one thing but, implementing legs, knees and elbows can lead to some serious damage, real quick.</p><p> </p><h2><strong><u>At the end of the day </u></strong></h2><p>It’s an amazing striker vs striker matchup to open up the UFC 244 preliminary fights. The betting line is slightly favouring the Dawodu. Julio is coming in at +120 in a matchup that’s 50/50. If I were forced to lean, I’d go 55/45 in favour of Julio.</p><p>So, we have Boxer vs Muay Thai striker, not the easiest fight to make a prediction on but the entire card looks pretty much the same. I have to lean Julio with the technical striking and Dawodu with the leg strikes. The better-rounded martial artist should be Julio if the fight were to hit the mat; I wouldn’t expect Dawodu to fare too well.</p><p>I like near-enough every fighter on this event, It’s a beautiful PPV live from Madison Square Garden and I think Julio avenges his first loss in New York with technical striking and some potential success grappling.</p><p> </p><p align="center"><strong><u>Some statistics below you may find interesting</u></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">Arce has the advantage in all grappling statistics</p><p style="text-align:center">Only two of Arce’s 19 fights have finished in under 1.5 rounds</p><p style="text-align:center">Dawodu is 10-1</p><p align="center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=168&amp;a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d582dcf927b95968483da5f/original-10-bet-new-customer-welcome-bonus" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2 align="center"><strong>Darren Till vs Kelvin Gastelum </strong></h2><p align="center"><strong>Middleweight Bout </strong></p><p align="center"><strong>UFC Betting Prediction: <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/darren-till-vs-kelvin-gastelum-3958553/?mtid=126" target="_blank" title="Fighting Odds">Darren Till to win</a> @ Darren Till 2.80 [+180] <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker">with Bet365</a></strong></p><p> </p><h2><strong><u>Darren Till</u></strong></h2><div> </div><p><strong>Age: </strong>26</p><p><strong>Record: </strong>17-2-1</p><p><strong>Height: </strong>6ft”</p><p><strong>Reach: </strong>74.5”</p><p><strong>Current Streak: </strong>2 losses</p><p><strong>Gym: </strong>Team Kaobon</p><p><strong>Notable Gym Members: </strong>Mike Grundy</p><p> </p><p><strong><u>Significant Strikes (UFC)</u> </strong></p><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>2.41</p><p><strong>Accuracy: </strong>46%</p><p><strong>Defence: </strong>60%</p><p> </p><p><strong><u>Grappling (UFC)</u></strong></p><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>0.61</p><p><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>40%</p><p><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>83%</p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/9YZUz8xzwtM\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>In the co-main event of the evening, Liverpool, England will see the return of their home town hero Darren Till. After taking all he could from the Welterweight division (A title shot against Tyron Woodley), Till is going to make his middleweight debut against the former number 1 contender, Kelvin Gastelum. An unfortunate loss to Jorge Masvidal after finding success early on, would not only give Till his second loss but also invaluable experience at the elite level.</p><p>Till has looked in great shape whilst making the move up to middleweight, he will hold a considerable size advantage over Kelvin, but size doesn’t always equal profit.</p><p>Since the age of 16, Till has practised Muay Thai at the highest level. Aged 26, Till is continuing to mature against the best fighters in the world with his only losses coming against Woodley &amp; Masvidal. The +180/2.80 betting line available is disrespectful, to say the least.</p><p> </p><h2><strong><u>Kelvin Gastelum</u></strong></h2><div> </div><p><strong>Age: </strong>25</p><p><strong>Record: </strong>15-4-0</p><p><strong>Height: </strong>5ft 9”</p><p><strong>Reach: </strong>71.5”</p><p><strong>Current Streak: </strong>1 loss</p><p><strong>Gym: </strong>Kings MMA</p><p><strong>Notable Gym Members:</strong> Fabricio Werdum, Brian Ortega &amp; Lyoto Machida</p><p> </p><p><strong><u>Significant Strikes</u> </strong></p><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>3.83</p><p><strong>Accuracy: </strong>43%</p><p><strong>Defence: </strong>60<strong>%</strong></p><p> </p><p><strong><u>Grappling</u></strong></p><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>0.79</p><p><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>37%</p><p><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>62%</p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/GNqACMLg_B8\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong><u>At the end of the day </u></strong></h2><p>It’s hard to break this fight down and pick a winner based on skills or ability. This leads us directly to the odds? Darren Till is available at 2.80 +180 which gives him a 35% chance probability. I give Till way more respect than the current odds suggest so, from a betting perspective, there is only one play. At the least, I’d give Till a 40% chance of winning the fight which gives us an endless amount of room for error when betting the undervalued fighter.</p><p>I think either fighter could end this fight inside the distance or win by decision, it’s going to strictly come down to, and who wants it more. Who has the tenacity, the will power to overcome their defeats and come out victorious on the most stacked PPV card of the winter? I have no idea, but as mentioned, 2.80 isn’t a price that can be ignored for Darren Till in this unknown position especially, for a long-term bettor.</p><p> </p><p align="center"><strong><u>Some statistics below you may find interesting</u></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">Till is moving up from the welterweight division</p><p style="text-align:center">Kelvin has lost 3 of his previous 4 fights</p><p style="text-align:center">Till is undefeated at 185lbs (9-0)</p><p> </p><p align="center"><strong><u>Dogs and Their Odds: Extra Betting Predictions</u></strong></p><p align="center">0.5u on Nate Diaz to win @ 2.46 [+146] <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker">with Bet365</a></p><p> </p><p align="center"><em>UFC 244 takes place on Saturday 2<sup>nd</sup> of November live from Madison Square Garden, NY </em></p><p align="center"><em>If you would like to check up on any underdogs or odds not mentioned in this article then click <a href="http://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting">HERE</a>.</em></p></div>
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