UFC Fight Night 146: IQ Rules the Day in Saturday Night's Main Event

Jason Paglia

Friday, March 8, 2019 1:24 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 8, 2019 1:24 PM UTC

UFC Fight Night 146 can be a dangerous night for bettors. Let's have a look at the main event and break down the best lines to get you some profit.

<p>Let's be honest, match-maker Sean Shelby did not put the greatest of cards together for UFC Fight Night 146. Any event that has Ben Rothwell fighting off a 3 year layoff and a 38 year old washed up Tim Boetsch on the same slate is well....lacking. It could however, be a dangerous night from a betting perspective.</p><p>Almost every matchup in Wichita has the potential to go either way. My suggestion is LIMIT RISK! If you are flat bettor that normally bets 1 unit across the board, consider 1/2 units for Saturday night.</p><p>Styles make fights. There is one fight on the card Saturday night where I think the betting market has the most substantial edge, the headliner. So let's break this main event down to a fine powder.</p><p> </p><h2>The Main Event:</h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/junior-dos-santos-vs-derrick-lewis-3733544/" target="_blank" title="Junior dos Santos vs Derrick Lewis Odds Board"><strong>JUNIOR DOS SANTOS (20-5) vs DERRICK LEWIS (21-6)</strong></a></p><p>Where do I begin with Derrick Lewis? The "Black Beast" might literally be the worst MMA Heavyweight to be ranked top three in the world EVER. He has no skill set. If he beats you he knocks you unconscious yet he has no striking skills. His MMA record is 21-6 yet he should have never won a fight in his entire MMA career. He is sloppy, slow and has zero stamina. Lewis has one thing, freakish power in his right hand.</p><p>On the surface it looks like 2018 was a monster year for Derrick Lewis but a deeper look suggests something very different . <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tips/" target="_blank" title="More Sports Betting Tips">In a span of eight months Lewis won three fights</a>, two of which were top five contenders in the heavyweight division. This landed the "Black Beast" the money fight against the Heavyweight Champion and pound for pound #1 fighter in the world; Daniel Cormier. To the surprise of no one, it took eight minutes for Lewis to lose his chance at immortality. Now, that was to be expected considering the only person to ever beat Cormier was Jon Jones the greatest MMA fighter of all time, but I digress. That loss isn't and indictment on Derrick Lewis but every other fight he fought in 2018 was.</p><p>The Heavyweight division is far from the strongest division in the UFC. There are maybe five fighters in the division that are solid and the rest are just there. At UFC Fight Night: 126 Lewis stepped into the Octagon to face Marcin Tybura. Tybura does nothing well. His defense is non existent and even though Lewis is god awful it was expected that at some point in that fight his freakish right hand would connect with Tybura's chin. It took twenty five seconds for Marcin Tybura to drop. Now... a fighter with a skill set would have finished a stunned opponent on the ground right? Wrong. Tybura actually survived and ended up on top of Lewis. That would happen twice in the first round and when the bell rang to end the round Tybura was in a dominant position with full top control. Marcin Tybura was dominant and on his way to a unanimous decision when Lewis dropped him again late in the third round and got the TKO win (this will become a pattern).</p><p>At UFC 226 the single most embarrassing MMA Heavyweight fight in history took place. Derrick Lewis fought Francis Ngannou. Both fighters were so afraid of getting there brains knocked into next week that nobody hit each other...like at all. It has to hold the record for fewest punches thrown in a fight that went the distance. I actually cashed a ticket in this fight. Lewis was 2-1 and Ngannou was unproven so I thought the bet was warranted. They danced like ballerinas for 3 rounds and Lewis got the nod. Why? I have absolutely no idea because he did nothing to deserve it (Can you see the pattern growing yet?).</p><p>UFC 229 was the icing on the cake. This fight solidified how lucky Derrick Lewis was to fight three fighters in a row that had the fight IQ of a squirrel. In October of 2018 the "Black Beast" fought Alexander Volkov. Volkov was a legitimate contender. He had all the skills in the world except one. For fourteen minutes and forty seconds Alexander Volkov took Derrick Lewis to school. Seriously, class was in session. He beat Derrick Lewis up and down the octagon, in every crevice and every corner there was. He had complete control of the fight in every way, and with twenty seconds left in the fight his chin met Lewis' right hand. All Volkov had to do was keep his distance for less then a minute and he was on his way to a title fight. Unfortunately Lewis was matched up with another fighter with no fight IQ and TKO'd Volkov with eleven seconds left in the fight (a pattern realized).</p><p>This lucky streak ends Saturday. Enter Junior Dos Santos. A man that has beaten some of the best heavyweight fighters to step in the octagon. Whether it was Cain Velasquez, Stipe Miocic or Ben Rothwell and Frank Mir in there prime, he has been able to get the job done time and time again. JDS is in the discussion for greatest heavyweight striker in MMA history. He is 35 years old now but his boxing is still razor sharp, he has stamina for days and still has a decent chin considering he has done this for a decade. Most importantly, JDS' fight IQ is superb and that should carry the day Saturday night. JDS will do what he does best, beat his opponent by death from a thousand cuts. His jab is remarkable. It is probably the best jab any heavyweight fighter has ever had. He uses it not only as a tool to soften his opponents up before throwing combinations but more importantly, it is how he is always able to stay at range. That is where the fight IQ comes in. If I know what JDS has to do to beat Lewis, his team knows what he has to do to beat Lewis. They know the only thing Lewis has is that right hand. Lewis has no speed or stamina so he isn't physically able to chase someone around the octagon. He may be able to do it in the first round but that is it. The only way for Lewis to knock him out after the first round is if he comes to him and get within his reach. JDS WILL NOT DO THIS. Mark Hunt drew the blueprint on how to beat Derrick Lewis. Hunt is six inches smaller then Junior Dos Santos, has a shorter reach and is nine years younger. Dos Santos will pop that jab out to keep his distance the entire fight and pick Derrick Lewis apart with combinations like a turkey at Thanksgiving. Why? Because on Saturday night Derrick Lewis will finally fight someone that has a phenomenal fight IQ.</p><p><strong>THE PICK </strong>- Junior Dos Santos to win at 10/19 (1.52) <a href="http://affiliate.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Bookmaker">at Pinnacle</a></p>
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