UFC Fight Night 154 Squared Up: Lineker vs Font Fight Prediction

Jason Paglia

Wednesday, June 19, 2019 8:13 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 19, 2019 8:13 PM UTC

We kept the momentum going at UFC 238 with another successful fight prediction. That is now 7 of our last 8 fights, with some major plus money along the way. It’s a new week and a new fight card so let’s do it.

<p>UFC Fight Night 154 is this Saturday night in Greenville, South Carolina at the Ben Secours Wellness Arena. Although this card is nowhere near as stacked as UFC 238 was, there is always an angle or two that can be picked from the pile for some profit. In the Co-main event, it’s a battle of two top fifteen Bantamweights when John Lineker squares off against Rob Font. This will be the second time that these two have fought each other, the first being at UFC 198. John Lineker won by decision that night, but three years can change a lot in the sport of mixed martial arts. Can he do it again? Let’s break it down.</p><p style="text-align:center"> </p><div><h2 style="text-align:center">JOHN LINEKER (31-9) vs ROB FONT (16-4)</h2><div style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EhmpUNHR-Eamj5q7nYAAVsAK8IU=/0x151:4676x3268/1200x800/filters:focal(0x151:4676x3268)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/45600758/usa-today-7998677.0.jpg" style="width:800px;height:533px" /></div><h2>John Lineker:</h2><p>Even though he stands all of 5 ft 3 in, John Lineker can pretty much be summed up in two words, pure aggression. He comes into Saturday nights co-main event as the #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter in the world. He came up in the regional scene in his native Brazil, but it wasn’t until he found his current weight class where his career took off. He would win 13 consecutive fights and finally in December, 2011 he signed with the UFC. Through 16 fights with the UFC, John Lineker has amassed an impressive (12-4) record with notable wins over John Dodson, Marlon Vera, Ian McCall and Saturday night opponent Rob Font. Below is a look at Lineker by the numbers.</p><p> </p><h2>― STATS ―</h2><p>•Method of Victory •Significant Strikes (per/min) •Takedowns</p><p>▪14 wins by TKO ▪ 5.36 Landed ▪ 58.33% Accuracy</p><p>▪12 wins by Decision ▪ 4.27 Absorbed ▪ 67.8% Defended</p><p>▪4 wins by Submission</p><p> </p><h2>― PROS ―</h2><p>• Power (Normally this would be striking. John Lineker’s striking is serious, but its his power that is absolutely scary. A tiny man that hits like a giant.)</p><p>• Chin (It can’t possibly be made out of bone….. It has to be iron.)</p><p>• Hand speed (Does he have the fastest hand speed in the division? NO. It’s better than average in a fast division though, and that’s all that really matters.)</p><p>• Volume (The man lands 5.5 strikes per minute, every minute. That is ridiculous.)</p><p>• Pace/Cardio (Lineker might not have the best movement in the division, but the pace he sets is relentless. He never stops walking towards you and he never stops throwing punches at your face and liver.)</p><p>• Body Work (Those liver shots though…….)</p><p> </p><h2>― CONS ―</h2><p>• Technique (The only fighters that Lineker had a real problem with were TJ and John Dodson and that’s because whenever he fights anyone that has real foot work, he has a problem. If a fighter is content to stay on the outside and pick John apart through countering his counters, it spells real trouble for Lineker. He fares much better against fighters that walk into the Octagon, meet in the middle and brawl for three rounds.)</p><p>• Footwork/Movement (For a Bantamweight his footwork really isn’t impressive at all. He might be small and fast, but it doesn’t bare out when he moves around the cage. He doesn’t cut the angles well. He fights much more like a heavier fighter. He is a middleweight / light-heavyweight in a bantamweights body.)</p><p>•Takedown Defense (The stats might say that Lineker defends takedowns at a 67% clip, but it sure doesn’t feel that way when you watch his fights. It could be because he hasn’t faced many</p><p>wrestlers and strikers aren’t the best at taking their opponents down. All I know is anytime we see him in the Octagon against a decent wrestler, he is severely outclassed.)</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/rob-font-prepares-for-his-bantamweight-fight-against-thomas-almeida-picture-id908118864" style="width:800px;height:534px" /></p><h2>Rob Font:</h2><p>Rob Font steps into the Octagon this Saturday as the #12 ranked Bantamweight fighter in the world. He grew up in Massachusetts where he compiled a 3-1 amateur MMA record and felt that was enough to turn pro. As a professional he won 10 of his first 11 fights, winning the CES MMA Featherweight championship. The biggest MMA promotion in the world took notice. He signed with the UFC in the spring of 2014 and has been with them ever since. While he has been in the UFC, he has amassed a (6-3) record with notable wins over Sergio Pettis and Thomas Almeida. Saturday will be the second time he fights John Lineker, losing by decision in their first outing. Below is a look at Rob Font by the numbers.</p><p> </p><h2>― STATS ―</h2><p>•Method of Victory •Significant Strikes (per/min) •Takedowns</p><p>▪7 wins by TKO ▪ 4.94 Landed ▪ 33% Accuracy</p><p>▪5 wins by Decision ▪3.88 Absorbed ▪ 30% Defended</p><p>▪4 wins by Submission</p><p> </p><h2>― PROS ―</h2><p>• Power (Rob Font is another one of these bantamweight fighters that have outstanding power in a small frame. Does he have ‘Stone Hands’ Lineker power? Probably not but it might be close.)</p><p>• Jab (Normally I would just write striking here, but if you dive into the nuts and bolts of Rob Font’s striking game, its little more than a jab, right hand, front kick and step knee. Not incredibly dynamic but it is serviceable.)</p><p>• Speed (Rob has solid hand speed and more than serviceable muscle twitch reaction in the pocket. Both a plus and better than the bantamweight average.)</p><p>• Technique/Movement ( I think this is where Font has the biggest advantage on Lineker. His technique on the feet is legit. Even though Lineker sets a crazy pace he isn’t fluid in his movement like Font. Lineker also rarely cuts angles like a traditional striker does, but Font does it well.)</p><p> </p><h2>― CONS ―</h2><p>•Pressure (The biggest problem that Font had with Lineker in the first match was the pressure and pace that Lineker set. That is not going to get easier in this fight. Especially since Lineker and his team know what he has to do to be successful against Font. PRESSURE , PRESSURE, PRESSURE.)</p><p>•Adversity (This has been my problem with Rob Font as a fighter from day one and it’s a BIG PROBLEM, especially when John Lineker is across the Octagon. He doesn’t react well to getting hurt in the octagon. There are fighters that wake up and fight better when they are hurt like Tony Ferguson and then there are fighters like Rob Font that crumple like an accordion when they get hurt. That is a big factor for me in every Rob Font fight.)</p><p>•Takedowns/Takedown Defense (This will not be a problem for Font in this fight because John Lineker likes to bloody you standing, until you fall from your brain cells being scrambled. This is a problem however when he fights other opponents. When you takedown opponents at a 30% clip and defend takedowns at the same percentage, it’s a problem anytime you fight someone solid on the mat.)</p><p> </p><h2>THE VERDICT</h2><p>This won’t take long. I have only been somewhat impressed with Rob Font twice in the 5 years he has fought in the UFC. The Almeida and Pettis fights. Even still, I haven’t seen enough growth from Rob Font since the first fight with John Lineker to make me think anything will change on Saturday night. He still has a problem with pressure and he still has a problem with adversity. He should see both of them in spades on Saturday. The only question in this fight is will Lineker be able to catch Font and finish him, or are we in for another three round decision. I watched the first fight five times last night, literally. There were a couple times that Lineker had Font hurt. If it was earlier in the round we might have seen a TKO win last fight and not a decision.</p><p>The odds are currently (4.00) by TKO or (2.35) by decision. If you bet them both you would probably guarantee yourself some profit should Lineker win, because I don’t see him winning this fight by submission. That’s what we are going to do, and we will do it in a way where we make a unit of profit should we win, either way.</p><h2> </h2><h2>THE PICK</h2><p>John Lineker by Decision at 27/20 (2.35) - 1.5u at <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank">Bet365</a></p><p>John Lineker by TKO at 3/1 (4.00) - 1.0u at <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1">Bet365</a></p></div>
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