UFC Fight Night 161 Jedrzejczyk vs Waterson: Betting Tips & Predictions 'The Dogs and Their Odds'

DaveBets

Wednesday, October 9, 2019 7:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2019 7:00 AM UTC

The female Strawweight division will be the highlight of UFC Fight Night 161 in Tampa Bay, Florida. Let’s hunt out some underdogs worth a punt at the bookmakers, shall we?

<div><h2 align="center"><strong><em>The Dogs Odds</em></strong></h2><h2 align="center"><strong>Cub Swanson vs Kron Gracie </strong></h2><p align="center"><strong>Featherweight Bout </strong></p><p align="center"><strong>UFC Fight Night 161 takes place on Saturday 12<sup>th</sup> October live from the Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay, Florida<br /><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="UFC Betting Odds">UFC Betting Prediction: Cub Swanson to win @ 2.53 for 1u with Bet365 </a></strong></p><h2><strong><u>Cub Swanson </u></strong></h2><p><strong>Age: </strong>35<br /><strong>Record: </strong>25-11-0<br /><strong>Height: </strong>5ft 8”<br /><strong>Reach: </strong>70”<br /><strong>Current Streak: </strong>4 losses<br /><strong>Gym: </strong>UFC Gym Costa Mesa<br /><strong>Notable Gym Members: </strong>Aaron Pico</p><h2><strong><u>Significant Strikes</u> </strong></h2><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>4.38<br /><strong>Accuracy: </strong>49%<br /><strong>Defence: </strong>61%</p><h2><strong><u>Grappling</u></strong></h2><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>1.12<br /><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>50%<br /><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>60%</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/pGCYnEK-VUw\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) takes the crew back home this weekend. Tampa Bay, Florida will host an impressive line-up of fights including Cub Swanson versus Kron Gracie.</p><p>Cub has been a staple amongst the UFC roster for over 8 years, countless wars and headliners have entertained the fans on countless occasions. Unfortunately, Cub has dropped his previous four fights and none of them was pretty. Two submission defeats and two decision losses now leave Cub in a position where his job could be on the line, will the Gracie name make an impact on the UFC veteran?</p><p>For me, it’s doubtful. The Gracie name holds a lot of hype and so it should. Royce Gracie wowed fans with his Jiu-Jitsu in the hay-day of the Ultimate Fighting Championship whilst cementing a legacy for his family’s name.</p><p>Cub doesn’t seem fazed, in a recent interview he notably mentioned that whilst training for this fight camp multiple Jiu-Jitsu gyms refused to train Cub because of his opponent. A sour taste left in Cub’s mouth; doubting Cub in this position isn’t wise.</p><h2><strong><u>Kron Gracie </u></strong></h2><p><strong>Age: </strong>31<br /><strong>Record: </strong>14-7-0<br /><strong>Height: </strong>5ft 9”<br /><strong>Reach: </strong>70”<br /><strong>Current Streak: </strong>5 wins<br /><strong>Gym: </strong>Nick Diaz Academy<br /><strong>Notable Gym Members:</strong> Nick Diaz, Nate Diaz, Gilbert Melendez.</p><h2><strong><u>Significant Strikes (UFC)</u> </strong></h2><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>0.95<br /><strong>Accuracy: </strong>20%<br /><strong>Defence: </strong>71%</p><h2><strong><u>Grappling (UFC)</u></strong></h2><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>7.14<br /><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>50%<br /><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>0%</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/EDnQT6Ckca0\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>Kron Gracie makes his second walk to a UFC octagon this weekend with hopes to follow in his uncle Royce’s footsteps. UFC gold is on the mind of the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt (1<sup>st</sup> degree) and with an impressive 5-0 martial arts record, the hype train that follows the name is riding strong.</p><p>Kron has 5 professional fights with a 100% submission rate with no discrimination towards which move ends it all. An armbar, triangle and three rear-naked chokes submissions now places Kron against a different level of fighter in Cub Swanson.</p><p>The cool, calm and collected ‘Kron Gracie’ will be planning on showcasing another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu masterclass. Willing to pull guard at any point of the fight, Cub’s reactions and speed will need to be on point against one of the most dangerous offensive submission specialists on the entire UFC roster.</p><h2><strong><u>At the end of the day </u></strong></h2><p>When I first glanced at the odds for this matchup, something just didn’t feel right. The experience level of Cub is miles apart when comparing him up against Kron. An opening line of 2.60 is quite absurd.</p><p>I guess it’s understandable to put doubt in Cub when looking at his recent form. Losing four fights back to back has shown a slight decline, to some degree. Two of those happen to be by submission but, by no means can we handicap this fight whilst comparing Kron up against Brian Ortega or a Renato Carneiro.</p><p>Kron has no offensive striking, minimal offensive wrestling and would lose a striking battle with Cub 10 times out of 10. I have more trust in Cubs takedown defence, clinch control and fight IQ than I do in Kron’s attempt to submit Cub.</p><p>Of course, Kron could run out, pull guard and submit Cub within 60 seconds because this is the fight game. We’re merely trying to put our money in good positions and if you believe Kron Gracie holds value because he’s submitted 5 fighters on the decline, you’re in the wrong business.</p><p>The first betting prediction for UFC Fight Night underdogs will be on Cub Swanson. I’m that disgusted with the odds I’ll be breaking tradition and betting a full 1 unit.</p><h2 align="center"><strong><u>Some statistics below you may find interesting</u></strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><em><strong>All of Kron’s wins have come by Submission</strong></em><br /><em><strong>Cub is on a four-fight losing streak</strong></em><br /><em><strong>Cub has 11 TKO/KO wins</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center"><em><strong><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=168&amp;a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d582dcf927b95968483da5f/original-10-bet-new-customer-welcome-bonus" style="width:100%" /></a></strong></em></p><h2 align="center"><strong>Andrew Sanchez vs Martin Vettori </strong></h2><p align="center"><strong>Middleweight Bout </strong></p><p align="center"><strong>UFC Fight Night 161 takes place on Saturday 12<sup>th</sup> October live from the Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay, Florida<br /><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="UFC Betting Odds">UFC Betting Prediction: Andrew Sanchez to win @ 3.52 for 0.5u with William Hill </a></strong></p><h2><strong><u>Andrew Sanchez </u></strong></h2><p><strong>Age: </strong>31<br /><strong>Record: </strong>11-4-0<br /><strong>Height: </strong>6ft 1”<br /><strong>Reach: </strong>74”<br /><strong>Current Streak: </strong>2 wins<br /><strong>Gym: </strong>Tristar<br /><strong>Notable Gym Members: </strong>George Saint Pierre, Rory MacDonald and Arnold Allen</p><h2><strong><u>Significant Strikes (UFC)</u> </strong></h2><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>4.82<br /><strong>Accuracy: </strong>48%<br /><strong>Defence: </strong>48%<strong> </strong></p><h2><strong><u>Grappling (UFC)</u></strong></h2><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>2.65<br /><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>34%<br /><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>100%</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/HIj2YMj1-YA\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>Here we are again, another huge piece of value to feast on in our UFC Fight Night 161 predictions. Andrew Sanchez is giving up an astonishing price of 2.52 and with hours of consideration, I find no reason to undervalue Sanchez with this amount of disrespect.</p><p>Sanchez hasn’t had the prettiest brawls in his UFC venture but, the Ultimate Fighter contest winner knows how to get the job done with 15 minutes on the clock and walks through punches with a solid chin game (sometimes).</p><p>6 fights with 4 wins are nothing to be ashamed of, and with back to back wins, could find himself within the grasp of a top #15 ranked opponent if he can get through Vettori.</p><h2><strong><u>Marvin Vettori </u></strong></h2><p><strong>Age: </strong>25<br /><strong>Record: </strong>14-4-0<br /><strong>Height: </strong>6ft”<br /><strong>Reach: </strong>74”<br /><strong>Current Streak: </strong>1 win<br /><strong>Gym: </strong>Kings MMA<br /><strong>Notable Gym Members:</strong> Fabricio Werdum, Brian Ortega and Kelvin Gastelum</p><h2><strong><u>Significant Strikes</u> </strong></h2><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>3.75<br /><strong>Accuracy: </strong>42%<br /><strong>Defence: 63% </strong></p><h2><strong><u>Grappling</u></strong></h2><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>1.70<br /><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>45%<br /><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>79%</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/R14siN4C4Nk\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>Marvin ‘The Italian Dream’ Vettori has impressed UFC fans on multiple occasions across his aggressive style of fighting.</p><p>The fight scheduled with Andrew Sanchez was cancelled earlier this year when Sanchez became sick during fight week. Vettori took to social media with some expressed emotions he needed to let off his chest. The bad-blood has escalated with the re-scheduled bout set to take place this weekend.</p><p>Vettori went the distance with current UFC middleweight champion ‘Israel Adesanya’ and at the young age of 25, is an accomplishment in itself. He’s tough with no remorse but hasn’t managed to make the power behind his hands generate a KO/TKO win. Point fighting shouldn’t be viewed as a weakness, the youngster is evolving with every minute inside the octagon.</p><h2><strong><u>At the end of the day </u></strong></h2><p>It’s hard to justify the odds available on Martin Vettori. Although, I do see hope for the up and coming middleweight; I need to see more.</p><p>Andrew Sanchez is holding great value in this fight. The overhand right we see so frequently should make Vettori think twice about throwing caution to the wind. Sanchez has found a reasonable amount of success in his gruelling, grappling style which should be implemented as per usual.</p><p>I feel the risk involved is a considerable amount compared to our first underdog, 0.5u on a 3.52 underdog is enough to return over 1 unit of profit; whilst avoiding a heavy loss against your bankroll.</p><h2 align="center"><strong><u>Some statistics below you may find interesting</u></strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><em><strong>Sanchez last four wins came by decision </strong></em><br /><em><strong>Vettori has gone to decision in his previous five fights </strong></em><br /><em><strong>Vettori has never been finished</strong></em><br /><em><strong>Sanchez has never been knocked out against a fighter shorter than himself</strong></em></p><h2 align="center"><strong><u>Dogs and Their Odds: Extra Betting Predictions</u></strong></h2><p align="center"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="UFC Betting Odds"><em><strong>0.5u on Gerald Meerschaert to win @ 2.40 with Bet365</strong></em></a></p><p align="center"><em>UFC Fight Night 161 takes place on Saturday 12<sup>th</sup> October live from The Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay, Florida. </em></p><p align="center"><em>If you would like to check up on any underdogs or odds not mentioned in this article then click </em><a href="http://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting"><em>HERE</em></a></p></div>
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