UFC Fight Night: 161 | Squared Up: Swanson vs Gracie Predictions & Analysis

Jason Paglia

Thursday, October 10, 2019 6:25 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019 6:25 PM UTC

The UFC heads back to Tampa, Florida for UFC Fight Night: 161 this Saturday night. Amalie Arena is the site for what should be an entertaining night of fights. The co-main is sure to be a clash of styles when Cub Swanson squares off against the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu phenom Kron Gracie. We managed to cash last weekends co-main event, and we will try and make it two in a row on Saturday. Enough small talk, let’s get after it.
<div style="text-align:center"><strong>Co-Main Event Breakdown</strong></div><div style="text-align:center"> </div><div><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>CUB SWANSON (25-11) vs KRON GRACIE (5-0)</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/kron-gracie-vs-cub-swanson-3933095/?mtid=126" target="_blank" title="Fight Odds"><strong>Sunday 13<sup>th</sup>, Oct 2019</strong></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://www.bjpenn.com/wp-content/uploads/081_Cub_Swanson_vs_Dooho_Choi.0.0-Cropped-696x399.jpg" style="width:90%" /></p><h2> </h2><h2>Cub Swanson</h2><p>In 2004, years after being invited to train in mixed martial arts from former UFC fighter Joe Stevenson, Cub Swanson became a professional mixed martial artist full time. On July of 2004 he made his debut for a regional promotion across the boarder into Mexico. In his debut he fought Shannon Gugerty who would end up submitting him via choke in under 30 seconds. Swanson didn’t let that deter him. He won his next 9 fights when WEC, one of the biggest regional promotions in the USA signed him to a multi-fight contract. In 9 fights for the promotion Swanson won 6 of them. At that point he finally got the call from the promotion he had been striving for, the Ultimate Fighting Championship. In late 2011 he made his UFC debut against Ricardo Lamas and lost that fight. Including Lamas, Swanson has fought 17 time in the UFC with a total record of 10-7. On the surface that does not sound great but for the majority of Swanson’s career, he has fought the best of the best. This Saturday, Swanson will be desperate for a win. He has lost 4 in a row and can’t afford to lose another fight. Below is a look at Cub Swanson, by the numbers.</p><p><u><strong>― STATS ―</strong></u></p><p><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d9f860361125b98975e6fb6/original-cub-swanson-stats" style="width:100%" /></p><p><u><strong>― PROS ―</strong></u></p><p>• <strong>Volume Striking </strong>(Cub Swanson is not what he was, he has slowed down quite a bit, but his biggest strength is the amount of volume he throws at his opponents. There is always a leg or kick coming at you from some angle.</p><p>• <strong>Movement</strong> (When Cub is in his flow, his movement is fantastic. His footwork is great, no matter what he is doing. Whether it’s range striking, or cutting angles to hit opponents from different angles it’s all really solid.)</p><p><strong><u>― CONS ―</u></strong></p><p>•<strong> Damage </strong>(Cub has taken a ton of it over the years and he is shop warn. He is not as fast as he once was, and he tires more easily.)</p><p>• <strong>Consistency</strong> (A combination of Swanson getting older and the level of competition that he has faced the last 4 fights is the reason he has been on this losing streak. If he was younger and had more tread on the tires would he 0-4 in his last 4 fights? That is the question…. My gut says no he wouldn’t be)</p><p> </p><h2 style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://i0.wp.com/metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/gettyimages-1125534617.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;zoom=1&amp;resize=644%2C428&amp;ssl=1" style="width:90%" /></h2><h2> </h2><h2>Kron Gracie</h2><p>Kron Gracie is mixed martial arts royalty. His father is the greatest Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner to ever live. Not only that, but his father was so incredibly respected that he formulated the skeleton of rules and regulations that they use in the sport today, nearly 25 years later. So how does a son possibly live up to the example that was set by a legend? Apparently pretty f*****g well. He has won multiple world grappling titles from the Pan Am games to the ADCC Submission Wrestling Championships. Recently he turned to mixed martial arts and turned professional. With a 4-0 record he made his UFC debut in his last fight against Alex Caceres and won via submission. In addition to the hyper, there are a ton of questions about this young buck. Against a solid striker like Cub Swanson, some of those questions will get answered Saturday night. Below is a look at Kron Gracie, by the numbers.</p><p><u><strong>― STATS ―</strong></u></p><p><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d9f867a61125b98975e6fb7/original-kron-gracie-stats" style="width:100%" /></p><p><u><strong>― PROS ―</strong></u></p><p>• <strong>Submission Grappling Game </strong>(Kron Gracie is literally world class, that word gets over used often, but in this case it is accurate.)</p><p>• <strong>Cardio</strong> ( He is a Gracie, they are freaks of nature. His cardio is phenomenal.)</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>― CONS ―</strong></u></p><p>• <strong>Striking</strong> (This is a man that has only focused on rolling around a mat his entire life. He decided recently to pursue a career in MMA, but he is at a huge disadvantage. He basically does not have a clue how to strike. He is a Gracie and their work ethic is legendary, so he will improve every fight. Right now, he is still REALLY green. The only thing he has in the cage right now is incredible cardio and world class BJJ.)</p><p>• <strong>The Unknown</strong> (Unknowns in the cage are usually a bad thing. We have no idea if Kron’s chin will hold up if someone hits the button, and we have no idea how he will fight through real adversity in the cage. These are things you should know to make you feel better about where a fighter is going into a fight.)</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5cf03e868744ba9e8d3ce427/original-ufc-153-veredict" style="width:90%" /></p><h2>THE VERDICT</h2><p>So, who wins this fight? It is a really tough call. Cub Swanson has a monumental edge on the feet. He is a really solid volume striker that is going to present an incredibly tough challenge for Kron Gracie. However, this fight is not guaranteed.</p><p>Kron Gracie is going to try his best to walk through the striking of Cub Swanson, grab him, take him to the ground and submit him. Can he do this? He absolutely can. Aside from the fact that Gracie is an incredible grappler, Cub Swanson’s takedown defense is not inspired. He has had problems in his career against really strong grapplers. That is a real concern.</p><p>Another concern for Cub Swanson is the 0-4 skid he has been on. Has he fought some of the best in that span? Yes, he has. I don’t look as much into the 4- losing streak as some might assume. The <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/" target="_blank" title="UFC Live Betting Odds">betting market </a>has decided they are off the Cub Swanson train. His odds currently sit with him at (2.40). Considering every fight starts on the feet, I have to take a shot here with Cub Swanson at the underdog rate they are giving him. I haven’t seen enough from Kron Gracie to warrant this price. We’re re taking a shot with the puppy Saturday night boys!</p><p><strong>THE UFC PICK:</strong></p><ul> <li>Cub Swanson to win at 7/5 (2.40)</li></ul><div> </div><div style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=168&amp;a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d582dcf927b95968483da5f/original-10-bet-new-customer-welcome-bonus" style="width:100%" /></a></div></div>
comment here