UFC on ESPN 7 | Squared Up: Overeem vs Rozenstruik Fight Analysis & Predictions

Jason Paglia

Thursday, December 5, 2019 11:16 AM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 5, 2019 11:16 AM UTC

Find out the best tips for this Saturday's UFC action at the Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
<p>The UFC may have only been on a two-week hiatus, but it felt like two years for this fight fan. Next week UFC 245 might have the best fight card of the year, but we have a UFC event between now and then. It all goes down this Saturday night in the United States capital at the Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.</p><p>It was originally scheduled to be a heavyweight bout between two top 10 heavyweights in Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris but unfortunately for terrible circumstances, Walt Harris had to pull out of this weekend’s fight. Harris’ stepdaughter was abducted and murdered so Harris left to focus on taking care of his family and mourning his loss. Fortunately for the big machine that is the UFC, The show must go on, and a new opponent was schedule for this weekend’s fight. There will still be a clash of two top 15 heavyweights when Alistair Overeem squares up against Jairzinho Rozenstruik under the lights in the main event of the evening. Alright, you know the drill… Lets gets after it.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=160&amp;a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://imstore.bet365affiliates.com/AffiliateCreativeBanners/Sports/General/Bet%20Builder/en-GB/UK/STD/728x90_2.jpeg" style="width:100%;height:12px" /></a></p><div><h2 style="text-align:center">Alistair Overeem (45-17) Vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-0)</h2><h2><strong>Alistair Overeem</strong></h2><p>There are only two fighters in the conversation for greatest Heavyweight striker of all-time, Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem. What Overeem has done in his career has been truly special. He is a former Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion, DREAM Heavyweight Champion, K-1 World Grand Prix Champion and one of only two fighters in history to hold both an MMA &amp; K-1 Kickboxing titles at the same time. What gets lost in Overeem’s brilliant striking is a very underrated grappling game. He has excellent takedown defense and while Overeem does not come from a wrestling background he has a very solid base and top control game. He was once labeled the best heavyweight grappler in Europe before Josh Barnett and Fabricio Werdum took over the mantle. Overeem is now in the twilight of his career but his grappling is still serviceable. Overeem is the most accurate striker in the history of the UFC at just under 74%. This weekend stands another challenge Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Can he stop the up and coming talent? Below is a look at Alistair Overeem, by the numbers.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/002/735/045/hi-res-52371af2c09a7ae71572bd23ab12d5b5_crop_north.?h=533&amp;w=800&amp;q=70&amp;crop_x=center&amp;crop_y=top" style="width:650px;height:433px" /></p><h2>Stats</h2><p><strong>Method of Victory</strong></p><ul> <li>23 wins by TKO</li> <li>5 wins by Decision</li> <li>17 win by Submission</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong>Significant Strikes (per/min)</strong></p><ul> <li>3.79 Landed</li> <li>4.91 Absorbed</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong>Takedowns</strong></p><ul> <li>28.57% Accuracy</li> <li>73.08% Defended</li></ul><p> </p><h2>Pros</h2><ul> <li>Striking (Alistair Overeem is one of the greatest Heavyweight strikers in MMA history, period.)</li> <li>Clinch (Overeem’s clinch skills began in his kickboxing background and transitioned seamlessly to mixed martial arts. His left knee to the body has ended many fights, although in his latter years he has relied more heavily on his left kick to the body. Regardless, he is still deadly striking in the clinch.)</li> <li>Athleticism (Although Overeem is now getting up in age and is the oldest fighter on Saturday’s fight card, he has always been a phenomenal athlete and steps into he cage prepared and in shape every single fight.)</li></ul><p> </p><h2>Cons</h2><ul> <li>Chin (Alistair Overeem has had chin problems throughout every phase of his fighting career, but recently it has eroded substantially. It is the biggest con any Heavyweight fighter can have. Can you still win fights when a strong wind knocks you out? Yes. You become what Overeem has become, incredibly cautious. His chin was never great but, since his fight against Werdum at UFC 213 it’s been an ACME bolder rolling down hill.)</li> <li>Age (One of Overeem’s greatest strengths his entire career has now been eroded by father time. He has always been a physical freak. His speed, power and athleticism has taken him as high as you can go in the fight game. The problem is that age eventually kicks you right in the d**k and slowly starts to take that all away. He may still look the part but he is 60% of what he once was. 60% is still enough to win fights though.)</li> <li>Chin (Did I mention that my 10 year old daughter might be able to knock him out? NO? Ok well….. I think you get the point.)</li></ul><p> </p><h2>Jair Rozenstruik</h2><p>There is not a whole lot that I was able to find on the background of an MMA fighter that has 9 professional fights. At 17 Rozenstruik began training at Rens Project. He took lessons in kickboxing until he was discovered by what would become his eventual coach, Mike Babb. Soon after Rozenstruik became a professional kickboxer and he started destroying the competition. With multiple titles won on the other side of the planet he ended his kick boxing career with the ridiculous record of (76-8).</p><p>In May 2012 Jairzinho Rozenstruik started his professional MMA career. Early in his career Rozenstruik fought for various promotions like DRAKA MMA and Rizin Fighting Federation. With a record of 6-0 the UFC saw the potential in Rozenstruik and signed him to a multi fight contract. He made his debut at a UFC Fight Night 144 against Junior Albini and won via knockout in the 2nd round. Since that fight, Rozenstruik has fought twice winning both fights via 1st round TKO’S. One of which was the 2nd fastest knockout in UFC Heavyweight history. Can Jairzinho Rozenstruik continue his momentum and get a win versus a future UFC Hall of Famer? Below is a look at Rozenstruik, by the numbers.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://cdn.uat.ms.sbrfeeds.com/redirect-proxy/redirect/?url=http://dmxg5wxfqgb4u.cloudfront.net/styles/background_image_xl/s3/2019-06/RozenstruikHero_0.jpg?BONWvHNRzMS6JgHmkKk01kr4KCHCtFW6&amp;itok=R0riwfJY" style="width:650px;height:433px" /></p><p> </p><h2>Stats</h2><p><strong>Method of Victory</strong></p><ul> <li>8 wins by TKO</li> <li>1 wins by Decision</li> <li>1 win by Submission</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong>Significant Strikes (per/min)</strong></p><ul> <li>4.29 Landed</li> <li>3.37 Absorbed</li></ul><p> </p><p><strong>Takedowns</strong></p><ul> <li>0.00% Accuracy</li> <li>66.67% Defended</li></ul><p> </p><h2>Pros</h2><ul> <li>Power (Jairzinho Rozenstruik has mind altering power. He has dinosaur power. The type of power that instantly gives his opponents CTE.)</li> <li>Striking (Rozenstruik is a talented striker for a heavyweight fighter. As a kick boxer he has a wealth of experience. He is rock solid in the pocket, he sits on his punches to get his monumental power behind every punch, and has great handspeed for such a big guy.)</li> <li>CounterStriking (Normally this would be under the striking PRO, but I felt like it needed to be highlighted. He has an excellent counterstriking game that is going to cause major problems for Alistair Overeem.)</li></ul><p> </p><h2>Cons</h2><ul> <li>Grappling (Rozenstruik has been a fighter for a long time. In all of those fights, they started on their feet, and when you think of the fact that he has 84 kick boxing fights in which every fight was on the feet, it’s no wonder why his grappling skills are nonexistent. It’s not even that he is a bad grappler, he has never needed to grapple so I’m not sure if he even knows how. His MMA career consists of 9 fights, so whatever ground skills he has learned has happened in the span of his 9 fight MMA career. He has never attempted to take a fighter down in his entire UFC career. This is the one glaring weakness that I see from Jairzinho Rozenstruik has in this fight.</li></ul><p> </p><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>This is a clear cut breakdown in my mind. I said a month ago when Chris Weidman fought his last fight, he had the most fadeable body part in the UFC. His chin was gone, and it was easy to knock him out. The same could be said to a lesser extent for Alistair Overeem.</p><p>Alistair Overeem has had some success in the last couple years, but I feel like it’s only because his opponents weren’t able to hit the button flush on his chin. He has taken so much damage over the years that if someone with power catches that jaw the fight is over. Jairzinho Rozenstruik will touch that chin, HARD. Rozenstruik has 93 fights worth of striking experience and he is a phenomenal striker that has earth shattering power. Unless a fluke happens and Overeem catches Rozenstruik in this fight, he loses.</p><p>Rozenstruik has a great counterpunching game and in the end that will be the down fall of Alistair Overeem. The second Overeem engages and starts striking with Rozenstruik, he will get caught with a punch he didn’t expect because Rozenstruik doesn’t mind absorbing one to give two. Add the fact that Rozenstruik can knock anyone on the planet out, even if he is moving backwards, he is still lethal off his back foot. This is a 5 round fight. Rozenstruik puts Overeem to sleep inside 5 rounds.</p><p><strong>Best Tip: Jairzinho Rozenstruik Inside the Distance at 5/4 (2.25) with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a></strong></p></div>
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