UFC on ESPN 7 | Squared Up: Rodriguez vs Calvillo Fight Analysis & Predictions

Jason Paglia

Thursday, December 5, 2019 4:17 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 5, 2019 4:17 PM UTC

Find out the best bets for this Saturday's UFC fight between Marina Rodriguez and Cynthia Calvillo
<p>Fresh off a two-week break, the UFC heads to the United States capital in Washington D.C. for UFC on ESPN 7. It all goes down this Saturday night at the Capital One Arena in what should be a nice warmup for next week’s epic fight card at UFC: 245. As much as I would love to wax poetic about the sick card we will experience in the last event of the year, we have a fight card this week. Is it the greatest fight card ever? No, not at all. However, considering we haven’t seen fists fly the last two weeks, any night of fights is good enough for the avid fan in me.</p><p>The co-main event features a pair of top 10 women’s strawweights. If I am being candid, this fight has absolutely no business being put in the copilot seat of an UFC event. It is no co-main event material, but unfortunately it’s a catch 22. If we want events almost every weekend, we are going to occasionally get stuck with subpar co-main events. That is the case this weekend when Marina Rodriguez squares up against Cynthia Calvillo in the co-main event of UFC on ESPN 7. With that being said, you know the drill… Let’s get after it.</p><p> </p><div><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Marina Rodriguez (12-0-1) vs Cynthia Calvillo (8-1)</strong></h2><div><h2>Marina Rodriguez</h2><p>There isn’t a lot of information that I was able to find on Marina Rodriguez. All we know is that is she was born in 1987, she grew up playing soccer, handball and basketball (which nobody could care less about), and she began training to become a professional mixed martial artist at the age of 26.</p><p>In 2015 Rodriguez began her mixed martial arts career on the regional scene in her native country of Brazil. She would go on to amass a (9-0) record before catching the eye of UFC President Dana White. Shortly after she fought in the first season of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil where she won via knockout against Maria de Oliveira Neta. In her first fight on an actual UFC card, Rodriguez fought Ronda Markos in September of 2018. The fight ended in one of the only women’s strawweight draws in UFC history. Since that fight, Marina Rodriguez has a (3-0-1) UFC record and is currently ranked the #9 women’s strawweight fighter in the world. Can she continue her unbeaten streak against Cynthia Calvillo? Below is a look at Marina Rodriguez, by the numbers.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://usatmmajunkie.files.wordpress.com/2019/08/marina-rodriguez-tecia-torres-ufc-uruguay-28.jpg?w=1000&amp;h=600&amp;crop=1" style="width:650px;height:390px" /></p><h2><b>Stats</b></h2><p><strong>Method of Victory:</strong></p><ul> <li>5 wins by TKO</li> <li>6 wins by Decision</li> <li>1 win by Submission</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Significant Strikes (per/min)</strong></p><ul> <li>5.82 Landed</li> <li>3.27 Absorbed</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Takedowns</strong></p><ul> <li>20.00% Accuracy</li> <li>84.62% Defended</li></ul><p> </p><h2><strong>Pros</strong></h2><ul> <li><strong>Striking</strong> (I REALLY like Marina Rodriguez’s striking. I still consider her a prospect in the sport even though she is ranked in the top 10. For a prospect her striking is crisp. She throws a ton of volume, she lands almost 6 significant strikes per minute which is phenomenal and she has great hand speed.)</li> <li><strong>Movement</strong> (Rodriguez has very solid footwork. Her movement at range is very good, but where her movement in the cage really excels is in exchanges. She cuts angles through combinations like she has been boxing for 20 years. She rolls in and out of the pocket, avoiding damage while landing her strikes. This sets her up for a great counterpunching game which she has.)</li> <li><strong>Takedown Defense </strong>(By the numbers her takedown defense is great. Currently, UFC ranks her takedown defense at just under 85%. That is about as good as it gets in the cage. She looked great in her last fight against a veteran wrestler like Tecia Torres, and if she could have success against Torres she should be able to stop Calvillo.</li></ul><p> </p><h2><b>Cons</b></h2><ul> <li><strong>Grappling</strong> (The little that I have seen of Marina Rodriguez on the ground has not been impressive, like at all. I did not see her spend a ton of time on her back, but the little I saw, she looks lost and out of place. She wants this fight on the feet and Calvillo wants it on the ground because Calvillo will not touch her on the feet. She has that 85% takedown defense but if she gets stuck in that 15% on Saturday she could be in for a long day because she looks like a fish out of water whenever her back meets the matt</li></ul><p> </p><h2>Cynthia Calvillo</h2><div><p>Cynthia Calvillo started fighting as an amateur mixed martial artist in 2012. Over a 4 year span she accumulated a 5-1 amateur record. In 2016 Cynthia Calvillo made her professional mixed martial arts debut and in a five month span she won three consecutive fights. After those victories the UFC took notice and offered Calvillo a ten day contract to fight Amanda Cooper on short notice at UFC 209. She would take full advantage of her situation and beat Cooper via submission in the 1st round.</p><p>After the success of a victory on short notice, the UFC signed her to a short multi fight contract to join the main roster and was immediately asked to come back and fight at UFC 210 against Pearl Gonzalez. With the momentum at her back Calvillo stepped into the cage with purpose and went on to beat Pearl Gonzalez via 3rd round submission.</p><p>In the end, Cynthia Calvillo has amassed a record of 5-1 while fighting in the UFC. Calvillo is currently ranked the #10 strawweight fighter in the world and can really use a win against a top 10 opponent. Will she extend her win streak to 6 of her last 7 fights? Below is a look at Cynthia Calvillo, by the numbers.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://cdn.uat.ms.sbrfeeds.com/redirect-proxy/redirect/?url=http://dmxg5wxfqgb4u.cloudfront.net/2019-02/GettyImages-1125536341.jpg?RMjUiclpNinYPOtsNqDEnrVjh6lpnhKc" style="width:650px;height:434px" /></p><h2><strong>Stats</strong></h2><p><strong>Method of Victory:</strong></p><ul> <li>2 wins by TKO</li> <li>3 wins by Decision</li> <li>3 win by Submission</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Significant Strikes (per/min)</strong></p><ul> <li>3.85 Landed</li> <li>3.50 Absorbed</li></ul><p><br /><strong>Takedowns</strong></p><ul> <li>36.84% Accuracy</li> <li>69.23% Defended</li></ul><p> </p><h2><strong>Pros</strong></h2><ul> <li><strong>Wrestling</strong> (If Cynthia Calvillo is known for anything, it’s the fact that she is a better wrestler/ grappler then anything else she does offensively. I am not a huge fan of the skills that she has, so to me that isn’t saying much.)</li> <li><strong>Submissions</strong> (Again, I ordinarily give this as a PRO for someone that had 3 submission wins in their career arsenal, but I feel like despite her record, it’s slim pick ins for Calvillo. She does attempt 2 submissions per 15 minutes which I assume is better than the average fighter in the division.)</li></ul><p> </p><h2><strong>Cons</strong></h2><ul> <li><strong>Striking</strong> (She might have been able to strike it out for 3 rounds with Courtney Casey and win because she wasn’t able to rely on the best part of her game getting her through the fight, but let’s be real. Courtney Casey does not have the stand up game that even comes close to comparing what I saw in Marina Rodriguez’s last couple fights. Calvillo’s striking is slow, the hand speed is nonexistent, he punches come in to wide so she loses whatever power she has when they come in and her combinations are weak.</li> <li><strong>Fight</strong> <strong>IQ</strong> (She may only have 5 fewer fights than her opponent, but 5 fights could be a worlds worth of things you haven’t seen in the cage. She has had 9 pro fights. She is still a baby in the game, and every fight is a learning experience at this point. She has not seen the speed in exchanges that she will see Saturday. How will she react to that? Who knows, she has 9 pro fights…. Get my point?)</li></ul><p style="text-align:center"> </p><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>I know my partner think that this is a coin flip, and because of that the value is on Cavillo but I just don’t see it that way. I think Marina Rodriguez looks like a much better fighter than Cynthia Calvillo right now. If Calvillo can’t get Rodriguez to the ground she better pack a lunch because it should be a long day for CC.</p><p>Tecia Torres, who is worlds apart in wrestling skill from Calvillo, had a very hard time trying to get Rodriguez to the ground. She lost the fight because she couldn’t deal with the standup game once Torres couldn’t get her to the ground and because of this she lost. That is exactly how I see this fight playing out. Marina Rodriguez has an excellent striking game and an 85% takedown defense. That equals a really bad day for someone that specializes in wrestling. I just don’t see how Calvillo will be able to handle the hand speed, the angles that Rodriguez cuts in her counterstriking exchanges and the ridiculous volume that Marina throws. 6 SIGNIFICANT STRIKES LANDED PER MINUTE / 85% TAKEDOWN DEFENSE. This is not a coin flip. Rodriguez deserves to be the favorite here, and at this price I have no problem backing her. Book It!</p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>UFC Betting Tips: Marina Rodriguez to win at 10/13 (1.77) with <a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Pinnacle</a></strong></p></div></div></div>
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