UFC São Paulo: Fight Night 164 Betting Picks & Predictions 'The Dogs and Their Odds'

DaveBets

Wednesday, November 13, 2019 12:14 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2019 12:14 PM UTC

From a clean sweep of underdogs on last weeks UFC Russia card, we now head into Sao Paulo full of confidence. Are you ready for some UFC predictions?
<div><h2 style="text-align:center">The Dogs Odds</h2><div><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Saturday, 16th November live from Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo, Brazil</strong></p></div><div> </div><h2 style="text-align:center">Ariane Lipski vs Veronica Macedo</h2><div style="text-align:center"> </div><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Flyweight Bout</strong><br /><strong>UFC Sao Paulo Betting Prediction: <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/veronica-macedo-vs-ariane-lipski-3985513/?mtid=126" target="_blank" title="Fight Odds">Macedo to win by decision @ 2.40 [+140] </a>with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">William Hill</a></strong></p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Ariane Lipski</strong></u></p><p><strong>Age:</strong> 25</p><p><strong>Record: </strong>11-5-0</p><p><strong>Height: </strong>5ft 3”</p><p><strong>Reach: </strong>67”</p><p><strong>Current Streak: </strong>2 losses</p><p><strong>Gym: </strong>Rasthai</p><p><strong>Notable Gym Members: </strong>Wilson Reis</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Significant Strikes (UFC)</strong></u></p><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>4.03</p><p><strong>Accuracy: </strong>28%</p><p><strong>Defence: </strong>49%</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Grappling (UFC)</strong></u></p><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>0.50</p><p><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>100%</p><p><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>40%</p><p style="text-align:center">&lt;iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/360JU_oSdqY" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;</p><p>It’s been a rough journey in the UFC for Brazilian Flyweight Ariane Lipski. A some-what promising 9-fight win streak is what originally caught the UFC’s attention so when making her UFC debut all the hype followed her. Unfortunately for Lipski, the UFC talent was a wakeup call to the reality of high-level fights, Joanne Calderwood and Molly McCann handed Lipski back to back losses. She will be fighting back home in Brazil this weekend, with the risk of losing the final fight on her contract.</p><p>Nicknamed, ‘The Violence Queen’… Lipski hasn’t lived up to the said name. In fact, it’s quite embarrassing that “the violence queen” has been totally outclassed inside a UFC octagon. With all her chips on the table, the pressure will be on this weekend In Sao Paulo for Lipski’s third test under the UFC banner.</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Veronica Macedo</strong></u></p><p><strong>Age: </strong>24</p><p><strong>Record: </strong>6-3-1</p><p><strong>Height: </strong>5ft 4”</p><p><strong>Reach: </strong>64”</p><p><strong>Current Streak: </strong>1 win</p><p><strong>Gym: </strong>MMA Factory Paris</p><p><strong>Notable Gym Members: </strong>Francis Ngannou, Ciryl Gane and Taylor Lapilus</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Significant Strikes (UFC)</strong></u></p><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>1.90</p><p><strong>Accuracy: </strong>45%</p><p><strong>Defence:</strong> 38%</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Grappling (UFC)</strong></u></p><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>0.80</p><p><strong>Takedown Accuracy:</strong> 100%</p><p><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>100%</p><p style="text-align:center">&lt;iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CKpnLoILfEY" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;</p><p>Veronica Macedo turned her bad fortunes around after a 3 fight losing skid to start her UFC contract. That said, the size difference in her debut UFC bout against Ashlee Evans Smith was unlucky, it legitimately came across as two girls fighting at different weight classes. Her second outing wasn’t an easier task, in-fact; it was a step up in competition in my opinion when she came up short against Andrea Lee. Then her third loss against Gillian Robertson was another rough gig considering she was riding a 2-fight losing streak. Gillian is a rough and ready type of girl; she doesn’t quit and could’ve easily given up the fight by decision. Unfortunately for Macedo, she didn’t expect to be outclassed on the ground and get submitted.</p><p>So, we finally have a matchup that makes sense for our girl Macedo. She was victorious against Polyana Viana and now she’ll step in short notice against another beatable opponent in Ariane Lipski.</p><p> </p><h2>At the end of the day</h2><p>You’re probably wondering, where’s Dave heading with this one? He seems to be leaning Macedo but she’s not the underdog? Well… in a similar fashion to last week, we’ll be taking said fighter to take this fight on the judge's scorecard.</p><p>Lipski has failed to impress in the UFC but the girl knows how to avoid a finish, I don’t think she’ll have issues with the punching power from Macedo but I do think she’ll have to scramble multiple submission attempts by the BJJ Black-Belt. I do think she has enough submission defence with her BJJ Blue-Belt but, I doubt she’ll pop back to her feet without a struggle.</p><p>Lipski throws a large volume of strikes but her accuracy has a lot to be desired. Almost a hit or quit type of fighter, she throws strikes carelessly, which did work in the lower leagues but not so much in the UFC. Lipski has easily been taken down so, even if Macedo can’t find success on the feet, I think she’ll have the advantage in grappling and will be able to control enough of the fight to get the judge’s approval. If we compare the girls MMA skills, Macedo is clearly the better-rounded fighter and that should play out in the cage this weekend.</p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Some statistics below you may find interesting</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>· </strong>Macedo was originally due to fight at UFC Busan</p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>· </strong>Lipski has gone to Decision in her last 3 fights</p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>· </strong>Macedo is 1-3 in the UFC, Lipski is 0-2</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=168&amp;a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d582dcf927b95968483da5f/original-10-bet-new-customer-welcome-bonus" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong style="color:inherit;font-family:inherit;font-size:1.2em">Markus Perez vs Wellington Turman</strong><br /><strong>Middleweight Bout<br />UFC Sao Paulo Betting Prediction: <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/int/ultimate-fighting-championship/wellington-turman-vs-markus-perez-3983414/?mtid=126" target="_blank" title="Fight Odds">Wellington Turman @ 2.10 [+110] </a>with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">William Hill</a></strong></p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Markus Perez</strong></u></p><p><strong>Age: </strong>27</p><p><strong>Record: </strong>12-2-0</p><p><strong>Height:</strong> 6ft 1”</p><p><strong>Reach: </strong>73”</p><p><strong>Current Streak:</strong> 1 win</p><p><strong>Gym: </strong>American Top Team</p><p><strong>Notable Gym Members: </strong>Nunes, Poirier &amp; Covington</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Significant Strikes (UFC)</strong></u></p><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>2.56</p><p><strong>Accuracy: </strong>47%</p><p><strong>Defence: </strong>49%</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Grappling (UFC)</strong></u></p><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>1.48</p><p><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>28%</p><p><strong>Takedown Defended:</strong> 81%</p><p style="text-align:center">&lt;iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9tcYMPSZYrk" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;</p><p>Our next fight between Markus Perez and Wellington Turman has a fight of the night potential in my eyes. Stylistically, matchmakers have done an incredible job because attempting to break this fight down and give a confident pick isn’t a task for the faint-hearted.</p><p>Perez has shown off his impressive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills inside and outside of the UFC. Since his debut a couple of years ago he’s gone 2-2 with both his win’s ending via submission. A dangerous man on the ground and much like his fellow Brazilians will show heart until the very end.</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Wellington Turman</strong></u></p><p><strong>Age: </strong>23</p><p><strong>Record: </strong>15-3-0</p><p><strong>Height:</strong> 6ft”</p><p><strong>Reach: </strong>72”</p><p><strong>Current Streak: </strong>1 loss</p><p><strong>Gym: </strong>Gile Ribeiro Team</p><p><strong>Notable Gym Members: </strong>Augusto Sakai, Rogerio Bontorin &amp; Luan Chagas</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Significant Strikes</strong></u></p><p><strong>Landed Per Min: </strong>1.67</p><p><strong>Accuracy: </strong>49%</p><p><strong>Defence:</strong> 37%</p><p> </p><p><u><strong>Grappling</strong></u></p><p><strong>Takedown Average: </strong>4.00</p><p><strong>Takedown Accuracy: </strong>57%</p><p><strong>Takedown Defended: </strong>0%</p><p style="text-align:center">&lt;iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QbKuQaUm4lQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;</p><p>Wellington doesn’t boast with a belt, nor has he threatened any submission finishes in the UFC but one thing is certain, leave your neck out and Wellington will squeeze. Of course, a fighter who was born and raised in Brazil doesn’t need a belt to be a fierce Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist and Wellington’s submission finish rate amplifies this belief. 7 of his 15 career wins have been ending by submission but he might struggle to find the neck of Black-Belt and fellow countryman Markus Perez.</p><p>He didn’t show any signs of “octagon jitters” in his debut fight for the UFC against Karl Roberson back in July at Fight Night 155 and arguably could’ve taken the decision victory on the night. With his first UFC loss and debut out the way in one night, Wellington should’ve re-focused and gained his composure for his return back home.</p><p> </p><h2>At the end of the day</h2><p>When I first analysed and broke this bout down, the line I predicted wasn’t far off. A straight pick’em is what I expected and certain books have followed suit. William Hill, on the other hand, has Wellington sitting at +110 underdogs which in my opinion holds the only value on this fight. This isn’t a technical breakdown and I don’t believe that Wellington or Perez has an advantage in any one given area, this is strictly a play based on odds and in what should be a pick’em, and we have a plus price available on Wellington for long term bettors.</p><p>I think the younger fighter has a great chance to prevail with his aggressive takedown offence, the final dog of the week… Wellington Turman, book it!</p><p> </p><p style="text-align:center"><u><strong>Some statistics below you may find interesting</strong></u></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>·</strong> Perez is undefeated in Brazil 11-0</p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>·</strong> Turman has gone to Dec in 5 of his last 7 fights</p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>· </strong>Neither fighter has ever been finished</p><p> </p><p style="text-align:center"><em>UFC Fight Night 164 takes place on Saturday 16th of November live from<strong> </strong>Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo, Brazil. If you would like to check up on any underdogs or odds not mentioned in this article then click <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/fighting/" target="_blank" title="Fighting Odds">HERE</a>.</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><em>Disclaimer: Wagers subject to change on my final betting card/record</em></p></div>
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