Football Predictions - Bundesliga Week 6 Value Bets

Gabe Morency

Thursday, September 29, 2016 12:31 AM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 29, 2016 12:31 AM UTC

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/embed/FmFT4Kr6T1g[/embed] From a betting perspective this weekend’s round of Bundesliga fixtures looks to be one of the most challenging in recent memory. Leaders Bayern Munich are exceptionally low priced to win a game that could prove.
<p>[embed]https://www.youtube.com/embed/FmFT4Kr6T1g[/embed]</p><p>From a betting perspective, this weekend’s round of Bundesliga fixtures looks to be one of the most challenging in recent memory. Leaders Bayern Munich are exceptionally low priced to win a game that could prove a potential banana skin against high flying Cologne, while the other teams that made up last seasons top five are all playing against each other in what should prove to be tight games. But if you dig a little deeper there is plenty of value to be had, and there are some trends that might help sway your decisions.</p><p>Bayern have won their last six games against Cologne, also known as Koln, but last time they played it was only by a slender margin when they ran out 1-0 victors. This season Koln have acquitted themselves very well indeed and are currently third, just four points behind Bayern and still unbeaten. You would fancy Bayern to win it, but not by a huge margin. They are just 1/6 to emerge victorious with William Hill and Sportingbet (Bet365 will only go to 1/9 and many are offering 1/7), which hardly seems worth it. To get more value you might consider giving Bayern a handicap, but that is risky considering Cologne’s form: they have scored nine and conceded just two in six games. Another way to play it would be to give Cologne an advantage. If you give them +2 in the Asian handicap you get 10/9 with Bet Victor, so your bet wins if Cologne either win, draw or lose by a single goal, and your stake is refunded if they lose by two goals.</p><p>Last season’s second and third teams face each other when Borussia Dortmund travel to Bayer Leverkusen. Leverkusen have home advantage and played well last season, so it looks a tough game to call on paper. But this season Dortmund have certainly been the better team. They have won four of their five games and are already five points ahead of Leverkusen, and they will be full of confidence after battling to a very creditable 2-2 draw with Real Madrid in the Champions League midweek. Bayer have failed to hit the same heights this season and have been unlucky with injuries as they have won two, lost two and drawn one of their five matches. Borussia Dortmund beat them home and away last season without conceding a goal – 4-0 on aggregate – and can triumph again here (<a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4810&amp;book=Bet365">23/20 with Bet365</a>, Ladbrokes and various others).</p><p>Another heavyweight clash sees rivals Borussia Monchengladbach visit struggling Schalke 04. Schalke finished fifth last season, just a point behind Monchengladbach, but their collapse this campaign has been spectacular. They have lost all five of their league matches and sit bottom of the Bundesliga, with a goal difference of -8. A midweek Champions League victory over Nice might lift spirits, but they are in woeful form domestically and they will not find Monchengladbach in a charitable mood as they seek to maintain their place in the top four, having already opened up a 10-point lead over Schalke. Recent head to heads between the two have been pretty even, but the momentum is with the away side here. Schalke’s losing run will have to come to an end sooner or later but Monchengladbach might just prolong the misery for another week (2/1 with Betfred). It is crazy to think that Monchengladbach are outsiders here, despite their form being far better, so you could even go Monchegladbach draw no bet (<a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4834&amp;book=Paddypower">11/10 with Paddy Power</a>) or double chance Monchengladbach-draw (<a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4824&amp;book=Ladbrokes">4/7 with Ladbrokes</a>).</p><p>RB Leipzig maintained their unbeaten start to the season with a hard fought draw away at Cologne last time out and can keep up the pressure on the top four when Augsburg visit (13/17 with Marathon). Bookmakers are starting to come around to the idea that this newly promoted side, bankrolled by the Red Bull empire, can be a serious contender for the top four this season, but they are still typically well priced to win games and it is worth following their progress closely.</p>
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