La Liga Weekend Match Value

Gabe Morency

Wednesday, April 25, 2018 2:57 AM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 25, 2018 2:57 AM UTC

This is a tough weekend for me when it comes to making selections in La Liga. I’ve run this weekend’s games through my system and nothing -- nothing at all -- has popped out. This.
<p>This is a tough weekend for me when it comes to making selections in La Liga. I’ve run this weekend’s games through my system and nothing -- nothing at all -- has popped out. This is the first time in two years I have not been able to automatically identify at least two match odds selections with my spreadsheets. So, what do I do when this happens? I get out the stats and look for some value bets away from the match odds markets where I normally do my work.</p><p>https://youtu.be/FmBmFz8Aavw </p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Levante vs. Sevilla</strong></p> My first bet is on the first game of the weekend. One of my favourite areas for football bets away from the match odds market is the "both teams to score" market, and Friday's game popped out at me right away. I’ve found that looking at defensive records doesn’t tend to help too much, and that’s just as well for this Sevilla side that have struggled in defence all season and conceded on average 1.88 goals per game away from home. Instead I look at a team's inability to score, and Levante have that in spades. They are not prolific scorers and have failed to find the net in nearly one-third of their home games this season. Sevilla are worse, failing to score in more than 40% of their away games. So, to find "both teams to score (no)" at 2.38 with BetVictor, that’s a bit of a gift from me. I’m taking that one and making it my first bet of the weekend. <p style="text-align:center"><strong>Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao</strong></p> For Saturday’s action I turn my attention to this match. I agree that there is no value in the match odds market but you don’t have to go too far into the area of Asian handicaps to find something of interest. These two are close to each other in the table, with just 3 points separating the two clubs. Real Sociedad have the better form going into this season and are also strong scorers at home, scoring an average of 2.41 goals per game at the Anoeta. Bilbao have an acceptable, mid-table record away from home but they’re not big goal scorers on the road, scoring just 20 on their travels in the league all season. Three of those came against Villarreal and another three against Malaga, so you can see that belief in their goalscoring prowess can be eroded quickly. I’m on Real Sociedad-1 for this one and at odds of 2.71 with Pinnacle, I’m happy to take the risk. I think we either win or get our money back on this one.<p></p><p>So, those are my number-crunched, hand-picked value bets for the La Liga this week. Let’s see how they do.</p>
comment here