NHL Playoff's 2019 Outrights

Adam Boothe

Sunday, April 7, 2019 5:52 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 7, 2019 5:52 PM UTC

The waiting is over, we finally get to put our knowledge and eye to the test for hockey's greatest prize!

<p>Last week we discussed a general overview a few of the teams that had already secured playoff spots. The season is now finished, final seeding is complete and all the match-ups are known – and we've got some real great ones! At the time of writing this, no series lines have been released so understand that finding value at one book on an outright and later on taking an alternate team can happen based on pricing fluctuation. Do not limit to yourself to this team is 'my team' and our original projections must be correct. Additionally, the outright numbers are based upon a multitude of scenarios playing out so it is a poor strategy to bet the same teams in every aspect all post-season [feel free to ask me about this if my point is unclear]. Since this is a betting article I would like to focus on the reasons why wagers were made rather than all the intricacies of teams which every NHL journalist, fantasy expert and beat writer will be scrambling to put out over the next couple days. You will be able to find many articles breaking down the teams and if you decide to play these markets, I highly recommend investing a bit of time looking at the numbers on your own!</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;16 teams. 7 weeks. One &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/StanleyCup?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#StanleyCup&lt;/a&gt; champion. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Make your picks for the 2019 &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NHLBracket?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NHLBracket&lt;/a&gt; Challenge presented by &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/JagermeisterUSA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@JagermeisterUSA&lt;/a&gt; today at &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/ANERgXeSNC\"&gt;https://t.co/ANERgXeSNC&lt;/a&gt;! &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/AeoTrtUXZ3\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/AeoTrtUXZ3&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— NHL (@NHL) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/NHL/status/1114929652722733057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;7 de abril de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2>Eastern Conference Winner</h2><p>I made two plays on the EC champ this morning. The first was the obvious choice, the Tampa Bay Lightning. One of my concerns was that they would play the Montreal Canadiens in the opening round which, in my opinion, would have diminished their value oddly enough. I expect their road to the Conference finals to be similarly smooth to last year; replace the Devils with the Jackets, add a beat up Bruins or Leafs team, and then probably the toughest series yet against whichever team in the Metropolitan Division caught fire! I don't mean to belittle the rest of the Conference, but given the balance of the team and now seeing the projections, I have found value with them. The Bolts hold a 93% probability to beat the Jackets, and approximately 54% chance to take the following two series. It varies slightly, depending on who they face, however in all the scenarios ran that was where the figure sat. Given that Tampa is slightly above even money I'm happy to take the favourite on this market.</p><p><strong>Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning @ 2.10 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a> - 2u</strong></p><p> </p><p>So this is where we can get a bit weird. The Metro side of things is really up for grabs this year. You have the defending Stanley Cup champs, Washington Capitals, who are going to be moderately heavy favourites to beat the Carolina Hurricanes. Unfortunately for the Canes they probably don't match-up in any area of the ice particularly well against the Caps. Interestingly we then have several pieces of the two-time Stanley Cup champions, Pittsburgh Penguins, facing the overachieving New York Islanders. Based on the futures prices here it seems as though the Pens/Isles series will open up very close to each other. While it is never easy to go against a team with some of the most potent weapons in the game, the Isles are still being undervalued here. They still have a very weak, if not anemic, offence at times. So that would be one significant asterisk to taking them. If Tampa doesn't win the Conference then the form-to-price ratio value is greatest on New York. Washington and Boston are simply too low, even they have a very slightly improved chance to edge out of the Conference than the Isles.</p><p><strong>Bet: New York Islanders @ 11.00 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join Betway Today!">Betway</a> - 0.35u</strong></p><p> </p><h2>Western Conference Winner</h2><p>There are two teams that I like for very different reasons, but for a similar price. The first is the San Jose Sharks. I mentioned last week that if they were heavy favourites against the Golden Knights I would have no choice but to look Vegas' way. However only being a point differential across the board speaks volumes about how close the series price will be. These two Pacific rivals basically limped into the playoffs. Over the final 10 games of the season they had a combined record of 6-11-3...pretty pathetic! It has left both dropping in popularity at the books to Calgary and Nashville. Every series has its win conditions. For the Sharks it will be containing the Vegas speed, and making sure Fleury is much more busy than Martin Jones (if he continues his regular season form). As I said prior, even though I don't think the Knights are a worse roster this year, a huge part of their success last season was with a backs against the wall, Vegas-Strong support, us vs the world mentality. While they probably still have those things to a certain extent in their own camp, the opposition will not be caught off guard by what Vegas brings every night. The Flames pose a serious threat to taking anyone else in the Pacific but unlike the Bolt's, even for a slightly better price, I don't see the value taking them to clear the Western Conference.</p><p><strong>Bet: San Jose Sharks @ 7.00 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a></strong></p><p> </p><p>The other team I took a shot with for the West title was the St Louis Blues. This team was well and truly off the radar when 2018 finished, and they turned their season around clinching a division spot well over a week ago. Coming into the playoffs they have one of the strongest defensive cores. These guys don't just contribute in their own zone,</p><p>they also have over 40 goals from their D (most in the league). This means on the powerplay or an odd man rush you need to respect the shooting ability of more players. Out of the Central division I expect the Jets to be the biggest test. Winnipeg is a big team, but they're young and that showed in the Vegas series last year. The Jets handled St Louis relatively easily this season, however all their games were in the first couple months; before the Blues raised their level. I do expect a 6/7 game series here, but if the Blues can take down Winnipeg I find Nashville wholly overvalued heading into this post-season.</p><p><strong>Bet: St Louis Blues @ 8.00 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a></strong></p><p> </p><h2>Stanley Cup Champions</h2><p>Sadly I am chickening out of this market at this time. Almost every reputable book re-opens the <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/outrights/hockey/us/national-hockey-league/?mtid=311" target="_blank" title="Check NHL Outright Betting Odds">NHL outrights</a> the morning after each game concludes. There will be MANY opportunities to take the teams above or others throughout the opening weeks. Perhaps the Bolts will go down 0-2 to the Jackets and we can grab them to win the Cup at that time! My only point here is I don't believe you lose a tremendous amount of value on the team to lift the trophy by waiting for a couple games or a series. Will be starting to work through each individual series in the next day or so – if you don't want to wait that long contact me on Twitter [@lockeqwerty]. Enjoy the best hockey tournament in the world!</p>
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