Ashes 2019 Cricket Betting: Complete Guide to the Third Test

Ed Hawkins

Wednesday, August 21, 2019 8:19 AM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2019 8:19 AM UTC

Can England take advantage of Steve Smith absence?

<div><h2>England vs Australia</h2><p><a href="" rel="nofollow"><strong>22 August 2019 at Headingley</strong></a></p><p>Australia, who lead 1-0, have been dealt a significant blow with the loss of Steve Smith for game three. Smith, felled by a bouncer from England pacer Jofra Archer, has concussion and must not risk more serious damage in Leeds.</p><p>It gives England a great chance of equalising in the series. Smith has been the difference between the sides so far. And the bookies have reacted. The hosts are no better than 1.67 (4/6) with Bet Victor. Although we recognise Smith’s importance, that’s a chronically bad price about a Test team which is choc-full of batters not up to standard. Australia are 3.2 (11/5) with Bet365. The draw is 8.0 (7/1) across the board and that tells you all you need to know about the prospect of rain.</p><p>Pre-toss, the Aussies are value. Smith’s absence merely levels the playing field and any notion that England are now superior is fanciful. With Jason Roy and Joe Denly awful – and Jor Root out of form – the batting units are dead level. But Australia are still a superior bowling outfit.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Other wagers that catch the eye are the 6.5 (11/2) that Betfred offer about Travis Head top scoring for the Aussies. Head knows the wicket well having played for Yorkshire and with no Smith, he is the team’s most durable batter. We’re also prone to take on Archer for under 2.5 wickets in the first innings. At 1.83 (5/6) with Betfair we think it’s high. Archer is a supreme talent and has pace to burn but often that can unsettle batsmen for other bowlers to take the wickets.</p><p>Betfair have made a sizeable rick on their player performance market it would seem. They have over-estimated Josh Hazlewood’s effectiveness (1 point per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket). We can go under at 1.83 (5/6) at 100.5. He has a career make-up average of 86 per game. That’s quite an edge in our favour for this market. On two-year form it’s ten points further down at 76.</p><p>Hazlewood was excellent at Lord’s and we don’t suggest he is a poor player. But what has happened here is an overreaction with the layers pushing up the quote knowing that most bettors are going to go over.</p><h2>Best Bet</h2><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Cricket Betting Odds"><em><strong>Back Josh Hazlewood under 100.5 performance points 1.83 Betfair</strong></em></a></p></div>
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