Astralis vs Vitality ESL One Cologne Match Tips

Adam Boothe

Friday, July 5, 2019 9:32 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 5, 2019 9:32 PM UTC

What a heater semifinal we are setup for on Saturday in a French v Danish match-up!
<div><p>For the first time in what seems like three months Astralis have looked their major-winning selves. After dropping out of ECS and EPL without so much as a playoff win, they have entered Cologne full force; only allowing their opponents to get double digits on a single occasion. It is true that they have not face a Liquid or Navi level opponent, but a few weeks ago their results thus far would not have been so one-sided. One thing that was mentioned is that the individual level of their players had fallen off – likely as a result of only attending some Blast Pro Series, where the intensity was not so high. However that was then, and the Lanxess Arena is now.</p><p>Astralis have never faced this new powerhouse French squad, 'led' by the prodigy Zywoo. I am not even sure you can call him a prodigy at his point as he has already cemented himself in 2019's top 5 players. However I have made a pretty penny from fading 'the public' in such spaces who love to pile on for big name players; Niko, Simple, Coldzera, Olofmeister, Guardian, Forest, and there will be many more to come. As we've seen at this tournament, these players are capable of breaking a game wide open for their teams and, if the opposition is not disciplined or not on point, can wreck entire halves. However we've also seen them punished. Last year both Astralis and Liquid were very open about their confidence in facing the likes of Navi or Faze; teams that are much looser and reliant on their stars to make individual plays.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;That's all for the first day of playoffs here at &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/ESLOne?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#ESLOne&lt;/a&gt; Cologne.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Tune in at 14:25 CEST tomorrow to catch our semi-finals!&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/astralisgg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@astralisgg&lt;/a&gt; vs. &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TeamVitality?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@TeamVitality&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Followed by:&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TeamLiquid?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@TeamLiquid&lt;/a&gt; vs. &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/natusvincere?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@natusvincere&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;See you then! πŸ‘‹ &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/nGHnEubsW1\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/nGHnEubsW1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;β€” ESL Counter-Strike (@ESLCS) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/ESLCS/status/1147241238036459525?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;July 5, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2>The Matchup</h2><p>The value of Zywoo to Vitality can not be overstated. They need him to the be player that has been at the top of the scoreboard all week long...that's a given. If his teammates cannot make space for him, then dropping a respectable, but average for his calibre, 20 kills in a map won't be enough. Vitality has become better and better as this tournament has rolled on. Remember, they dropped their opening performance of Dust2 against the Ninjas without getting a single terrorist round. How did they respond today? They picked it into an NRG who had positive results on it, and put up an impressive 10 rounds on the t-half. Seeing as the first two bans are likely to go Train [Vitality], Mirage [Astralis], I can definitely see a world in which that map comes up. One thing to note with the veto; Astralis have been deferring the first ban/pick to their opponents all week long. This means that Vitality's map choice will be up first and Astralis will get the decision of which of the final two maps gets played. It's my strong estimation that the French will choose either Dust2 or Overpass as those two have cause Glave and co the most problems in 2019.</p><p>A few stats that have played a role in my play on this match. Astralis have three of the six highest rated players at the tournament [Vitality has only Zywoo in the top thirty], the highest round win percentage [70 to Vitality's 55], a perfect 1.0 multi-kill rate [first time I've ever seen this at a lan], and have won 45% of the rounds they loss the opening kill. There is only one category that the French are rated higher – they hold a marginal lead in trades, of less than 2%.</p><p>With all that said, I cannot in good conscience lay chalk with Vitality to take a map. Could they? Absolutely. However on a tournament by tournament basis, Astralis hold the value here in Cologne. The reason I mentioned the note on veto order is given what I amount to a 35% for Vitality to take their own map [which should be map1] there is no value on them short of a 3.0 price tag [currently 2.6 at Pinnacle]. However as there's always a chance, I am prepared to take the Danes to win-out the series if they do, in fact, drop the opener!</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><strong>Best Bet: Astralis (-1.5) @ 2.1 [Pinnacle]</strong></a></p></div>
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