CSGO Dreamhack Open Rotterdam Betting Preview

Adam Boothe

Thursday, October 17, 2019 5:41 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019 5:41 PM UTC

An interesting mix of teams heads to the Netherlands this weekend!
<div><p>The circuit of international counter-strike returns this weekend, this time to Rotterdam. It features a small field of eight teams competing. Headlining are the recent Berlin Major finalists, Avangar. Also of note will be a top female team, Besiktas. It is rare that female teams are invited, or qualify, to compete at the bigger international lans, so this is a unique showing. Unfortunately for Besiktas they will be fielding a stand-in for this one which will make this even harder for this underdog team to find success.</p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Going to be watching &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/DHOpen?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#DHOpen&lt;/a&gt; Rotterdam? We have packaged up all the information in an article you all! 😏&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;👉 &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/9SxooopD7z\"&gt;https://t.co/9SxooopD7z&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/1M1J2glUPS\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/1M1J2glUPS&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— DreamHack Counter-Strike (@DreamHackCSGO) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/DreamHackCSGO/status/1184484313259270144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 16, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2>SOCIAL:</h2><p>Other than the bottom two relatively unknown teams of Besiktas and Asterion, the tournament is up for grabs. Avangar are deservedly the favorites, but everyone else from Forze through to Havu stands a shot in Rotterdam. Many of these teams are used to playing each other in online leagues, qualifiers, and pugs so it is far from a given that Avangar take this title.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Match Bets:</strong><br /> </h2><p>- Besiktas (+11.5) vs Avangar @ 2.00 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker">Bet365</a>]</p><p>- Asterion (+9.5) vs Forze @ 1.90 [<a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Bookmaker">Pinnacle</a>]</p><p>- Heroic (-3.5) vs Hard Legion @ 1.90 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker">Bet365</a>]</p><p>- Havu (ml) vs Crazy @ 2.05 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Unibet">Unibet</a>]</p><p><br />I imagine I will get some questions like 'why you taking Besiktas, grills lul...they are tier50' or some variation, as I normally do, so I will elaborate. CSGO, like tennis, features a fixed score – no matter how dominant a team is, the maximum they can win is 16-0. Your task in betting is not to say, can Avangar win 16-4, which they can of course, but to say how often do they win 16-4, 16-3, 16-2, 16-1, or 16-0. In all of the possible outcomes of this match, there are only five outcomes that allow you to win a bet of -11.5 rounds. Even if you estimate that 0.0001% possibility that Besiktas can reach 16 rounds, or 1 in 10 000, that still only eliminates half of the outcomes (assuming no overtime). Avangar (all iterations) have played 691 maps as an organization and won 441. Here are the total times they have covered a spread of -11.5:</p><p>16-0 x1</p><p>16-1 x9</p><p>16-2 x10</p><p>16-3 x10</p><p>16-4 x22</p><p>Even if you assume that the average spread in games Avangar is favored sits at -3.5, meaning the competition is infinitely better, which it is, this is a low percentage of outcomes covering -11.5 rounds. Now this approach is only one way to go about measuring a spread. Additionally you could run the probability that Avangar wins both pistols, Besiktas wins both pistols, or they split them. Again this is not to say Avangar won't cover 12 rounds. However the implied probability of the market suggests they need to do it greater than 57% of the time. This is what you need to determine.</p><p>Now ideally we would have a sample that included Besiktas played some teams of Avangar's quality, or comparable to it. However if that was the case they would actually be a good team and we likely would never have an 11.5 on the board to begin with...catch-22.</p><p>The opening day features only best-of-ones, followed by best-of-threes for the remainder of the tournament. If you have another play in mind that you would like me to take a look at, contact me anytime throughout the weekend [lockeqwerty].</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=162&amp;a=ec641d03-1e6d-4096-9f5f-d2a6939022d0&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0005/1349915/Biggest-Ever-Bet-Boost-1280x480-English-UK.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p></div>
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