Dota2 The International 9 Final Betting Looks

Adam Boothe

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 3:30 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2019 3:30 PM UTC

Last week we took a general glance at the tournament, this week we get down to the nitty gritty!

<div><p>This article will act as a miscellaneous look at some things that I wanted to say in the other two, markets that I put on pause, as well as commentary on the groups. There's a lot to cover, and not enough time to go into detail. I appreciate those of you on Twitter, Discord and Telegram that have got in touch with feedback and further insight.</p><p>Let's begin with one additional market I hit yesterday, top South-east Asian team. As much as Fnatic and their regional rival, TNC, have been heading into different directions as the DPC went on, FNC undervalued heading into TI. They have made one significant roster move that could play well into the current hero meta of strong off-lane cores. With Fnactic it always depends which version of them we see, but I hear another team had success at TI with their coach as a replacement.....</p><p> </p><p><strong>Top SEA Team</strong></p><p>-Fnatic @ 3.50 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>]</p><p>Another market I like the look of is winning group = A @ 1.72 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>]. Would say it is the slightly more 'top heavy' group, though I think there is more upset potential presented from the dark-horse teams in Group B. And you can never really write-off a Virtus Pro, or 2019 Vici Gaming.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The International 2019 Groups. &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/TI9?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#TI9&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/kXFf1MPlTn\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/kXFf1MPlTn&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Wykrhm Reddy (@wykrhm) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/wykrhm/status/1161448505585487872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;August 14, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Highest Last-Hit Average</strong></p><p>-Anti-mage @ 3.50 [Bet365]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Highest Win Rate</strong></p><p>-Clinkz @ 9.85 [<a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Pinnacle</a>]</p><p>-Broodmother @ 22.95 [<a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Pinnacle</a>]</p><p>-Meepo @ 31.00 [Bet365]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Highest XPM Avg</strong></p><p>-Meepo @ 5.00 [Bet365]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Team to Pick Fewest Different Heroes</strong></p><p>-Infamous @ 5.5 [Bet365]</p><p>-Keen @ 13.0 [Bet365]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Team to Pick Most Different Heroes</strong></p><p>-Secret @ 7.0 [Bet365]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Longest Game of the Tournament</strong></p><p>-over 84:00 @ 1.85 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Betway</a>] 2u</p><p> </p><p><strong>Shortest Game of the Tournament</strong></p><p>-over 16:30 @ 1.85 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Betway</a>]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Most Assists</strong></p><p>-over 35.5 @ 1.85 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Betway</a>]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Most Deaths</strong></p><p>-over 18.5 @ 2.0 [Bet365]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Most Kills</strong></p><p>-under 25.5 @ 1.85 [Betway]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Total Combined Kills</strong></p><p>-under 103.5 @ 2.90 [Pinnacle]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Highest GPM</strong></p><p>-over 1090 @ 1.85 [Betway]</p><p>If you think a game goes under the posted total, then I recommend avoiding this market and choosing the exact range, 10:00-15:00, for significantly greater value. There have been a couple games at TI7 in that 15 min range, but since then have been significant changes to the game that would make it even more difficult given the talent and stakes. Just on the face of it, 7.22 brought buffs to tower strength at Tier1, 2, and 3 which should keep even a larger percentage of the lopsided games over the total.</p><p>This will be the first TI with 117 heroes in the pool, we will see big fan favorites Mars and Grimstroke added to the pantheon this year. More heroes get picked than banned, so if you're looking at predicting the exact range...don't! I mean you can bet over 101.5 @ 1.22 with reasonable certainty if you wish...</p><p>I have completely avoided the player props. It is more of a crap-shoot because it both depends on duration in the tournament but also level of team play. One look might be Ana as most kills in a game and Meracle highest kills average. Keep in mind, a lot of these props are difficult to hit. Your unit sizing should reflect it. There is a reason the top analysts in the world have not agreed on one hero for a particular market to a higher degree than 50%. Even if myself or someone else has the correct read on the meta at the moment, it does not mean it will be evidenced during TI. My recommendation would be to split a unit over a few heros on each market. So perhaps you're exposing 3-5 units tops on hero props. The outrights are different as you can bet based on current data as the tournament progresses.</p><p>I will have a few more plays to tweet out today, including the opening round of match wagers. Best of luck Dota2 fans and global sports bettors!</p></div>
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