Dota2 The International 9 Outrights

Adam Boothe

Saturday, August 3, 2019 4:41 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 3, 2019 4:41 PM UTC

The biggest esports tournament of the year, already over $31 million prize purse, is quickly approaching - not too early to take a glance at some of the futures markets!

<div><p>The International marks the 10 day period every summer when the Dota2 community shows up in full-force for the game they love. The ninth iteration of this tournament will kick off in about two weeks and, for the first time since 2011, take place not on the North American west coast but Shanghai! China boasts one of the largest esports scenes both in investment and fan support, with their Dota community being no exception. If you are a superstitious person and enjoy tales of a mystical nature, let us briefly rewind the clock. The first seven TI winners enjoyed a very observable pattern; Western and Eastern teams alternating victories until we hit TI8. Last year I posted PSG.LGD as my outright winner. After three games in the best-of-five grandfinal, everything looked on track. LGD was up 2-1 and had a commanding advantage in game four...and then this happened:</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZeXEk3WQEOY\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>The alternating east/west pattern was broken last year, and what a time to do so on the backs of a TI9 Shanghai announcement. The stage is set for China to get their revenge in front of a home crowd of passionate Dota2 fanatics. It is commonly stated in our game that a team can win with any five heroes- what matters most is execution. Last year OG exemplified this philosophy. Coming into the tournament they had been decimated by roster changes and had their long-standing coach, 'Ceb', and recent pug star and an unknown entity, Topson, joining them in the wake of the Fly/s4 departure. Liquipedia did a tournament preview and actually predicted OG to finish in last place, eighteenth, not even making it out of groups. For those unaware, 16/18 teams make it out of the group stage. Here is what they had to say; 'For a team with a history of under-performing at TI, expectations for OG are at an all-time low.' While I didn't expect them to come in last, I certainly did not see them qualifying for the upper-bracket, let alone being the sole team to clear the UB, lift the Aegis, and bring home $11 million. So why am I bothering to talk about a tournament long gone? Context and a concise image of what betting on TI is like.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/-J3rnb-DlfE\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><p>Three of the eight winners have come from the lower-bracket, however, all eight winners started in the upper-bracket. For those who have followed my work for a while, you will know that I am not a 'trend' bettor. However, I do believe that trends are good for context. What does this mean? It is possible, that there is a correlation between strong group stage performances and winning TI. Why do I say 'possible'? Because there is likely an even stronger correlation between having to play twice as many matches in the lower-bracket being the cause of elimination. Only one team has been knocked down from the upper-bracket in the opening round and won TI, Team Liquid in 2017. Six of eight TI's featured a rematch of an upper-bracket series, with three of the grand finals being a rematch of the two upper-bracket finalists. Only IG [TI2] and EG [TI5] have won that rematch. Five grand finals have concluded in four games, two have seen an ace map and only Liquid</p><p>[TI7] has swept. Probably the biggest trend that is talked about within the community is how no team has yet lifted the Aegis twice. More incredibly, not a single player has done so either. Only one organization has even been to the finals on more than one occasion, Natus Vincere 2011-2013.</p><p>Here are the teams I believe have all the pieces to do it this year:</p><p><em>-Team Secret</em></p><p><em>-Vici Gaming</em></p><p><em>-Virtus Pro</em></p><p><em>-PSG.LGD</em></p><p><em>-Team Liquid</em></p><p><em>-Evil Geniuses</em></p><p> </p><p>Surprise, surprise eh! What do these all have in common? Experience, world-class talent, and are the top six favs at the books. My only issue with a few is the price. As the DPC 18/19 only featured five Majors there were stark overreactions after each one concluded, for the most part because there was long gaps between LANs. At the most recent one in Moscow, we found a surprising result from Secret and EG being knocked out by OG with two 'coaches' in the lineup. Liquid went to the final and lost to a strong Vici performance. Off of that they are down to the outright favourites at Pinnacle...which is absurd, to be frank. While I was certainly impressed in their rapid chemistry with new addition, w33, they should at the very least be priced around Vici. My dark horses are TNC and RNG. These two have had to fight tooth and nail to get here, like many of the lowlier teams, and in the back half of the season showed significant improvement.</p><p>At this time I haven't moved on any of the outrights for two reasons. First, 7.22F was just released a few days ago and data still needs to come in on it. Second, we can wait for the groups to be released. While the top six ought to be split between the two groups, I would like to see where the rest of the field fall. With 90% of teams making it out of groups, but only 8 moving to the upper-bracket, I would like to make my TI9 outrights with more information. If you want to get action down now my two recommendations would be either:</p><p>Team Secret @ 3.85 [<a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Pinnacle</a>]</p><p>Winning Region – China @ 3.25 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>]</p><p> </p><h2>Here are some props that I have taken this week:</h2><p> </p><h2>Team to win the longest game:</h2><p>-Liquid @ 7.0 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" target="_blank">Betway</a>] 0.5u</p><p>-Virtus Pro @ 7.0 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Betway</a>] 0.5u</p><p> </p><h2>Team to win the shortest game:</h2><p>-OG @ 8.0 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Unibet</a>]</p><p> </p><h2>Team with fewest deaths in a game:</h2><p>-EG @ 8.0 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Unibet</a>]</p><p> </p><h2>Team with highest game length average:</h2><p>-TNC @ 7.0 [Bet365] 0.5u</p><p>-Alliance @ 8.0 [Unibet] 0.5u</p><p> </p><h2>Team with highest kill average:</h2><p>-Secret @ 5.74 [Pinnacle]</p><p> </p><h2>Team with most assists deaths in a game:</h2><p>-EG @ 9.0 [Bet365] 0.5u</p><p>-OG @ 26.0 [Betway] 0.5u</p><p>The longest shots always have the lowest limits at some of the books, so if you're running into trouble with this it may suit you to split a wager at two or three places. I have had to do this frequently for map props in CSGO. One other wager I am currently looking at when the groups get released is:</p><p>Top CIS Team – Navi @ 11.0 [Bet365]</p><p>I was shocked to see it so high as Natus Vincere has taken 9/16 games against VP this year. In fact, Pinnacle has this one priced more correctly at around 5.0'ish. Obviously there is no certainty that they play one another here in Shanghai, however it would only take a slightly more favorable bracket for Navi to go further than the CIS top dogs. There is a lot of information to take in here, however next week will be a look at hero composition and props. As always, do your own preparation but I am free to chat about markets anytime [@lockeqwerty]!</p></div>
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