Dota 2 TI9 Playoffs Preview and Betting Predictions

Adam Boothe

Monday, August 19, 2019 11:23 AM UTC

Monday, Aug. 19, 2019 11:23 AM UTC

The groups are concluded, playoff bracket set – let's break it down!

<div><p>What a riot the TI9 group stage was this year. I can’t remember the last time I witnessed so many mega creep comebacks in such a short span. Interestingly, the two teams eliminated were both from the 'strongest region in Dota'. I don't say this mockingly as I do believe this to be true, however TI is THE tournament and based on what we saw from both Chaos and Nip, they were deservedly knocked out [PPD's words, not mine]. Neither registered a single 2-0, which is undoubtedly a death warrant at such a competitive tournament. For those unaware, the tournament now progresses to a two-tier playoff bracket. Teams in the upper-bracket are given two 'lives'. Once in the lower-bracket if a team loses one match they are eliminated. All matches from here on out are best-of-three, with two exceptions; the opening round of the lower-bracket is a cutthroat best-of-one, and the grandfinal is a best-of-five. Looking over the way the bracket has been split, the only pre-tournament team that I am surprised to see in the lower-bracket is Team Liquid. At the time of writing my outrights article I mentioned that they were down to the favourite at Pinnacle, which was too short given our limited knowledge of their experience and exposure as a roster. While I still believe that, I certainly did not think they would have less success than both TNC and one other org, in this case Newbee. That said, they belong where they are; they went 0-2 against all four upper-bracket teams in their group and only one of those 4 games was even remotely close.</p><p>On that note, we should also mention Newbee's meteoric rise. Now you might be thinking; 'wait Newbee has been terrible since being swept by Liquid in the grandfinals of TI7.' This is a 'new-look' North American Newbee. After qualifying for TI9 the esports organization Forward Gaming collapsed upon itself and the traditionally Chinese-centred Dota org came to the rescue of this talented NA group. If you look back through their past six months the signs were there that they could have some potentially better results. However this was also met with skepticism as 'oh that's just NA'. Well, that's true but this Newbee group has solid pieces that is not a completely unknown group at TI. You might remember VGJ Thunder who topped their group at TI8 before being knocked out of the upper-bracket by tournament winners OG, and then eliminated in the lower-bracket by Team Secret. Also it should be noted that one point of contention last year was their penalty from Valve for breaking a coaching rule in group stage. This followed with no coaches being allowed in their booth during their match against OG. Could this be the rematch that they've been planning 365 days for? This year they have added Pieliedie and CcnC, both veterans of top calibre Dota. There is an argument to be made for this team making a run here and they are certainly peaking at the right time.</p><p><strong>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Here's a look at the first matches of The International 2019 Dota 2 Championships Main Event. Be sure to tune in on Tuesday, August 20th to see who will add their name to the Aegis of Champions. &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#TI9&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— The International (@dota2ti) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;August 18, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</strong></p><h2>Matches:</h2><p>Interestingly the opening round of the TI9 upper-bracket playoffs features almost three identical rematches to the TI8 opening round matches; OG vs Newbee, LGD v VP, and EG v Secret, though the lines look very different. In esports I frequently hear 'x team is saving their strategies for this tournament, or playoffs' etc. Without completely dismissing those theories, I will say it's mostly crap. While teams certainly go through different levels of motivation depending on the match, tournament, stage, there is a far greater correlation between poor play and letdown spots resulting in further poor play and eliminations. So I strongly advise anyone thinking that teams which looked unorganised and discombobulated will simply 'try harder' now. Is it within a good team's capability to rebound and fix their mistakes? Absolutely! However it is key to isolate the factors leading to wins and losses. Without further delay, let's look at a few matches.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p><b>PSG.LGD vs Virtus Pro</b></p><p>Yesterday I tweeted out that I found some of the opening lines to be laughable, this match included. VP/LGD has been one of the hottest match-ups in professional Dota for the past two years. How could it not be; the top CIS org versus the top Chinese one. It has largely alternated winners, but always in close games even if it was 2-0. Last year when they met at this stage LGD was at 2.0. While I never expected LGD to be a dog this time around, I thought we would we something around the 1.66-1.7 mark. Value on VP right? Well...maybe, but 'Maybe' point writing about esports if you can't throw in a pun. Anyway after going through the numbers, VP might actually be overvalued here, at least on the +1.5. My model gives LGD a 52% of the 2-0 in this spot. That on the face of it is enough to take them -1.5 given the current lines out there, however let's break it down further. One thing the analysts have talked at length about lately is how important the position 4 is in the Dota meta. Well fy would be the perfect illustration of this. His farm and KDA have been truly impressive in the group stage including a 3-1-25 Mirana performance against Team Secret. Contrast fy's level with Rodjer and you have very contrasting level of results. He has had solid results on Lina in most matches. However the one contest they showed her against an upper-bracket team, OG, Rodjer got smoked dealing less damage than both pos 3 Tidehunter and pos 5 Shadow Demon- not something you want to see on Lina. While you should never write-off a team like Virtus Pro given their talent, chemistry, hero pool and experience on stage, I can't pay this much chalk for them to take a game given what they have shown and their numbers suggest.</p><p><a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Dota 2 Betting Odds"><strong><em>Bet: PSG.LGD (-1.5) @ 2.45 [Pinnacle]</em></strong></a></p><p>Additionally I am on LGD (-6.5) kill spread on all three maps. If you do like Virtus Pro the best number on their spread is at Betway +1.5 @ 1.60. However my recommendation is not to pay that. If you are in the Bear's corner, then take them on the moneyline.</p><p>While digging through the numbers I found a really bizarre statistic. Virtus Pro's win rate from Dire side over the last twelve and six months is barely above 50%, contrasted with 70% and 65% from Radian over the same two time periods. Now it is not uncommon for professional org's to have a marginally better win rate from the 'green' side [5-8%], however this is significantly more than that with a sample size over 250. Does this mean bet against VP when on Dire? No, as they still win more than half their matches there. However I might pause when considering laying them live to comeback on the less favoured end of the map. Of course this could be completely irrelevant as this week they have taken 6/8 games as Dire. However, given that one of VP's strongest abilities as a team is fighting around Roshan, and the slightly greater ease that Radian teams have in rotating there, it probably shouldn't be ignored either.</p><p><b>Other Bets:</b></p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Dota 2 Betting Odds"><em><strong>-TNC (+1.5) @ 1.72 [Bet365]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Dota2 Betting Odds"><em><strong>-Alliance (ml) @ 1.69 [Pinnacle]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Dota 2 Betting Odds"><em><strong>-Fnatic (ml) @ 2.35 [Pinnacle]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Dota 2 Betting Odds"><em><strong>-Keen (ml) @ 1.94 [Pinnacle]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Dota 2 Betting Odds"><em><strong>-Mineski (ml) @ 2.05 [Betway]</strong></em></a></p><p>For the sake of word count, I cannot go into detail on all the wagers. However if you'd like to pick my brain, or share some of your thoughts on any of the plays you've decided to make, get in touch [@lockeqwerty].</p></div>
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