Esports Betting: It's a Small World at the Dota2 Disneyland Major!

Adam Boothe

Thursday, May 2, 2019 9:01 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 2, 2019 9:01 PM UTC

The second last major of the DPC begins Saturday with a plethora of familiar faces. There is a cool million dollars and fifteen thousand circuit points up for grabs!

<p><span style="font-size:12px;">Last week we saw the Ninjas in Pyjamas claim the final flight to Paris, but they'll be up against it here with the six top ranked teams in the world all Liquid, and Mineski, and Keen, and OG. So basically the field is as stacked as TI is likely to be. Speaking of which, only four of the teams attending have already secured a TI invite; Virtus Pro, Team Secret, Vici Gaming and Evil Geniuses. Why is this a big deal? 12 teams get direct invites, the rest have to compete for the regional qualifying ticket...of which there is only one per region. In highly talented regions it can be quite ruthless. For instance OG, defending TI winners, are currently sitting with a mere 48 points [about 4000 short]. If they have to go through the qualifier they may be up against a talented Nip, Liquid and Alliance for that spot. This is the time of year when teams really need to buckle up!<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Following &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;@NiPGaming&lt;/a&gt;'s success at the OGA Dota Pit Minor, we have now confirmed all the 16 competing teams at the MDL Disneyland® Paris Major.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;We are therefore glad to announce the groups and schedule for &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#MDLDisney&lt;/a&gt;. Which group do you consider to be the group of death? &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Mars Media (@MarsMedia) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;April 29, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</span></p><p></p><h2><br /><span style="font-size:12px;"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color:inherit;font-weight:700;">Format</span></span></span><br /> </h2><p></p><p><span style="font-size:12px;">The opening round will be a four group GSL-style format. The top two seeds from each will move into the upper-bracket of the playoffs, the bottom two into the lower-bracket. All matches with the exception of the opening round of the lower-bracket will be best-of-three. The grand finals will be a best-of-five. As always, upper-bracket teams have an 'extra life'; meaning if they lose a match they drop to the lower-bracket. Lose in the lower-bracket and you are eliminated. Unlike last week's group stage, which was meaningless as all teams started in the upper-bracket, there is considerable incentive to finish in the top two seeds.</span></p><p><span style="font-size:12px;"><h2>Outrights</h2></span></p><p><span style="font-size:12px;">There are two teams I've got my sights on and have been looking into all week long; PSG.LGD and Team Liquid. Both of these Dota giants have been relatively silent for the entirety of the 2018/2019 circuit. Liquid picked up two tiny victories at the Winter Clash and in Macau (neither offered DPC points), meanwhile LGD had two top six finishes at back to back tournaments in Chongqing and Stockholm. Other than that, these former powerhouse teams have had nothing to show. Why do I think it's worth taking a shot at this tournament? The odds on both of them given the timing and importance of the final two majors. So far this calendar year we have seen three different teams take all three premiers. Given the highly competitive nature of the field, these two are, forgive the betting cliche, due! LGD made a roster move between Chongqing and Stockholm and we saw them start to look like the team that won back-to-back majors in 2018. Liquid looked utterly poor in Stockholm. After their opening sweep of J.Storm they lost five straight games to Secret, Keen and Chaos being eliminated next to last. However this is the biggest price I can recall seeing on them to win a tournament and, even though they haven't performed recently, have found value in this number (if they do come prepared).</span></p><p><span style="font-size:12px;"><h2>To Win Outright</h2></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size:12px;"><strong>PSG.LGD @ 8.0 <a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Betway Odds">[Betway]</a><br />Liquid @ 9.7 <a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Pinnacle Odds">[Pinnacle]</a></strong><br /><br />Every major book should reopen the outrights between rounds. Therefore if you would rather wait to see the form of some teams that it also wise. A few things to note; Virtus Pro has finished first or second at all three majors so far, the most talented undervalued region is always SEA (Mineski and Fnatic could upset any of the top five), and a North American team hasn't won a major since 2015. Usually the way the playoffs breakdown are the final 6 are comprised of four of the top five teams in the world and then two middle of the pack teams. For instance Kuala Lumpur saw Nip and TNC in the final six, Chongqing had Ehome and Fnatic, and Stockholm featured Keen and Fnatic. All three had VP, Secret and LGD in the top six finalists. These are not trends to bet on, but rather factoids to keep in mind when assessing value as the tournament progresses. EG are kings of the lower-bracket; often dropping down early and grinding out wins. If VP or Secret lose one match in the UB we can find a much better price on them than we currently see. Don't be afraid to play multiple teams given great odds you get in the lower-bracket!</span></p><p><span style="font-size:12px;">I had another page worth of info and markets I have taken so far but it can't all fit here. Will be an action packed week ahead and we'll have a plethora of opportunities to have another winning major!</span></p>
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