Formula 1 Azerbaijan GP Preview and Betting Tips

Eric Kelly

Thursday, April 25, 2019 8:07 AM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 25, 2019 8:07 AM UTC

Formula 1 Baku: Will the Azerbaijan GP craziness continue for the 4th year in a row?

<p>The first three Baku races in 2016, 2017 and 2018 had three surprise drivers finishing on the podium (Sergio Perez in 2018 and Lance Stroll in 2017 and Perez again in 2016) so will the madness continue this Sunday? Can we find a diamond in the rough that’s going to win at big odds? We have the perfect condition for it.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Hamilton and Vettel Collide in Baku &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The most dramatic on-track moments from 2017&lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#F1&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Seb5&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#AzerbaijanGP&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Eau rouge (@Insidef1) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;April 22, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p></p><h2><strong>Preview</strong></h2><p></p><p>What is wrong with team Ferrari? Towards the end of last year and in pre-season testing this year they were clearly the faster car or was Mercedes secretly holding back? Neither of the Ferrari drivers is even sitting in third position on the overall standings. That spot belongs to Red Bulls Max Verstappen. Sebastian Vettel sits 21 points behind Mercedes leader Lewis Hamilton. It’s just the beginning of the season but he has a mountain to climb after just 3 races.</p><p>Verstappen has been consistently picking up a top four place finishes in his last eight grand Prix’s stretching back to last year. He has been very impressive considering his car is slower than both Mercedes and Ferraris. He will 100% get a win this year.</p><p>The last race in China was the least uneventful race of the season so far. A notable point-finish for Alex Albon was one of the highlights. The status quo remained in place as both Mercedes finished 1<sup>st</sup> and 2<sup>nd</sup>; Daniel Riccardo finished his first race of the season in 7<sup>th</sup> position, scoring his first points for new team Renault, having not finished in the first two races. We predicted Danil Kyvat would not finish the race as he had a history of crashing and did not crash in either of the first two races, we were proved correct in china as he retired of the 41<sup>st</sup> lap.</p><p><strong>We are currently up 34.75 units for our Formula1 season so far</strong>, a brilliant start and hoping to keep that wheel rolling again this weekend.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Whatever it takes.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Join Captain HAMerica, The Incredible Hulk, Rocket Raccoonen and all your other favourite heroes for the fight of their lives ⚔️&lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#AzerbaijanGP&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#AvengersEndgame&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Formula 1 (@F1) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;April 24, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p><strong>Key Stats &amp; facts</strong></p><p>Baku has the longest straight in the whole of the F1 tracks they will race on this year and is the second longest track on the calendar at 3.73 miles. The longest being Spa in Belgium.</p><p>Valtteri Bottas set an unofficial top speed for a F1 car (378Km/H) during qualifying in 2016 when he drove for Williams.</p><p>Starting 8<sup>th</sup> on the grid has the most podium finishes in the city of Baku, Both of Perez’s podium finishes and Strolls podium finish all came from this starting position.</p><p> </p><p></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Betting Odds</strong></h2><p></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>*Lewis Hamilton 15/8</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>*Sebastian Vettel 9/4</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>*Valtteri Bottas 10/3</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>*Charles Leclerc 10/3</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>*Max Verstappen 22/1</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>*Pierre Gasly 100/1</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>*Sergio Perez 250/1</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>*Rest of Field 301.00+</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"> </p><p></p><h2><strong>Verdict</strong></h2><p></p><p>With a track like this, you have to take a few shots in the dark when placing your bets, there is a very good chance none of the favourites might win and a complete outsider can win. I would argue the top five favourites usually stand a 97% chance of winning but with a track like this I would reduce that number to about 85%, it’s still not a big reduction but it gives us 12% to work with.</p><p>I fancy a lot more prop bets than taking 1 or 2 big outsiders to win (like I was suggesting was worth a bet), officially I will not be betting these bets but if you want to take a few outsiders worth a lot of bang for your buck I do like the looks the looks of Perez at 750/1(Ladbrokes), his form around the track is exceptional and I also think Daniel Riccardo represents Value at 750/1(Bet365).</p><p>I know I have been writing him off all year (even bet him to crash in the last race) but I have a strong feeling about Vettel this weekend. He started in pole position last year in Baku. He finished a strong third in the last race and I think the streets of Baku might favour the Ferrari, his teammate Leclerc has amazing driver speed and ability but I think that the track might catch him out and I also have a bet on Leclerc not to finish the race.</p><p>Max Verstappen has not finished the last two races in Baku, in 2017 he had an oil pressure failure and last year he and his teammate crashed into each other taking each other out. I do fancy him to do better this year and I am going to have a small bet on him each way at 22/1(William Hill).</p><p>Lewis Hamilton has finished 49 of his last 50 F1 races; teammate Bottas has finished 47 of his last 50. I am going with either Mercedes not to finish at 7/2 (Betway), considering the tracks reputation I feel there is a small bit of value to be had here. If you still feel this price is to short maybe wait until after qualifying to get a better price if they qualify well (although that does mean there will be less chances of them being involved in early collision within the pack).</p><p>Let’s stick with the good luck of starting 8<sup>th</sup> on the grid. After qualifying on Saturday I will be having a cheeky bet on whoever starts in 8<sup>th</sup>. If you follow me @oblivionsports on twitter I will be posting this play or any further plays or recommendations on the race.</p><p></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Bets</strong></h2><p></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Sebastian Vettel race winner 9/4 William Hill 1U</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Max Verstappen 22/1 William Hill 0.5U each way</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Charles Leclerc not to classify 5/1 Bet365 0.5U</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Sergio Perez top 6 finish 11/4 Bet365 0.5U</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>McLaren first car to retire 8/1 Bet365 0.5U</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Sebastian Vettel fastest lap 4/1 Ladbrokes 0.5U</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Either Mercedes not to finish 7/2 Betway 0.5U</strong></em></a></p>
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