Formula1 Italian GP: Round 14 Preview and Best Bets

Eric Kelly

Wednesday, September 4, 2019 8:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 4, 2019 8:48 PM UTC

Can the Silver Arrows Get Back to Winning Ways on Ferrari’s Home Soil?

<div><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Formula1 Italian GP</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, September 8th, Track: Monza</strong></p><h2>Preview</h2><p>Last time out in the Belgium GP saw the first victory of the season by a Ferrari driver. Although they were pre-race favourites, I didn’t fancy betting them coming off the season break. The race was too unpredictable. Charles Leclerc won the race for Ferrari. It was his first victory for the team and his first ever win in the Formula1 championship. He dedicated his race win to his long-time friend Anthoine Hubert who sadly passed away in the Formula2 race the previous day.</p><p>We seem to be on this weird trend train. The trend being that when the race is exciting, we end up in profit and when nothing much happens, we take no profit from the race. This trend continued last time in Spa as we finished up -3 units after a mediocre race at best. Let’s hope for a bit more excitement in Monza.</p><p>We are just past the midway point of the season and Lewis Hamilton virtually has the title wrapped up, another two victories should secure the championship. His closest rival is teammate Valtteri Bottas who is a total of 65 points behind him. That’s two 1st places and a 3rd just to catch him and Hamilton would also have to score zero points in that scenario.</p><h2> </h2><h2>Key Stats &amp; Facts</h2><p>· The Italian GP is the fifth oldest Race in the F1 calendar and has the record for the most F1 races held here over any other track, 88 in total.</p><p>· Both Lewis Hamilton and Michael Schumacher are the only racers to win here five times.</p><p>· There has been an average of 2.3 DNFs over the previous five races at Monza.</p><p>· Only a handful of drivers have finished every race this season, they are. Kimi Raikkonen, Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton, Robert Kubica and George Russel. Team Williams might not have the fastest of cars considering both drivers are last and second last in the overall standings, but it does however prove their car is at the very least reliable and in the hands of two good drivers in Kubica and Russel.</p><p>· There are only eleven corners at the Monza circuit, the second lowest in the season calendar behind Austria’s Red Bull ring.</p><h2> </h2><h2>Betting Odds</h2><p>· Charles Leclerc 6/4</p><p>· Lewis Hamilton 2/1</p><p>· Sebastian Vettel 3/1</p><p>· Valtteri Bottas 9/1</p><p>· Max Verstappen 28/1</p><p>· Alex Albon 66/1</p><p>· Rest of Field 1000/1+</p><p> </p><h2>Verdict</h2><p>Its very hard to see why Ferrari are favourites this weekend considering they have not won here since 2010. My only guess is that Monza is the home race for Ferrari. The track is located only two hours’ drive from Maranello which is Ferrari’s home base. Hamilton has won four of the last five races at Monza, and the only race he didn’t win his then teammate Nico Rosberg took the victory. Perhaps the bookies are jumping the gun a bit too quick just because Leclerc won the previous race in Spa. I never thought I would be saying this, the value lies in a Mercedes double podium for me. Hamilton has shown his dominance at this track and teammate Bottas has a decent record at this track. He has never been off the podium here since joining Mercedes in 2017 and even when he was with Williams his average result was 5th place overall.</p><p>Max Verstappen can’t be ruled out here in Monza, considering it’s a similar sort of track to Austria where he took his first victory of the season. We had him down as race winner at odds of 28/1 for us that day. He can also be snatched up right now at 28/1. He was unlucky last time out to crash on the first lap and retire from the race. That was his first retirement of the season.</p><p>We are all over “The Iceman” Kimi Raikkonen to finish in the top 10 this weekend, it’s a steal of a price at 11/8. He has finished in the top 10 in eight out of thirteen races thus far this season. He finished in 9th in the Austrian GP which works for me, similar track, car should go well here also. Raikkonen has been in F1 for seventeen seasons and it shows with his overall standings. He currently lies in 9th on 31 points, whilst his rookie teammate Antonio Giovinazzi is in 18th on 1 point.</p><p> </p><h2>Recommended Bets</h2><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Max Verstappen race winner 29.0 (28/1) with William Hill 0.5 unit each way</a></p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kimi Raikkonen top 10 finish 2.38 (11/8) with Betfair 1 unit</a></p><p>Mercedes double podium finish 2.50 (6/4) with Sky Bet 1 unit</p><p> </p><h2>Recommended Fun Bets for Interest</h2><p>Valtteri Bottas to set the fastest qualification time, win the race and set the fastest lap in the race 34.00 (33/1) with Sky Bet 0.5 unit</p><p>Ferrari 1/2 in qualifying and Hamilton to win the race 7.50 (13/2) with Sky Bet 0.5 unit</p></div>
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