Formula1 Japanese GP: Round 17 Preview and Best Bets

Eric Kelly

Wednesday, October 9, 2019 4:14 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2019 4:14 PM UTC

Typhoon Hagabis threatens the race on Sunday but if the race isn’t cancelled, we could see some big odds winners in Suzuka.
<div><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Formula1 Japanese GP</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, October 13th, Track: Suzuka International racing Course</strong></p><p> </p><h2>Preview</h2><p>We couldn’t have asked for a better start last time out in Russia, cashing a 6/1 and a 7/4 bet on the second corner of the race as Romain Grosjean crashed out, automatically we were up units for the race and anything else was a bonus from then. We now have +51.75 units for Formula1 this season.</p><p>Lewis Hamilton snatched victory from under Ferrari’s nose as they were having some child’s play inside their team with Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel crying like babies to their team radios over who should be allowed in 1st place. It completely backfired and Vettel suffered a car failure and Leclerc only managed to finish 3rd. They should have won that race.</p><p>This weekend we head to Japan, the drivers face one of the most challenging circuits’ in Suzuka. It is a notoriously demanding track for the F1 drivers and a dangerous track. There have been 19 fatalities on the track since it opened in 1962. Mercedes have been the most dominant team at this track in recent years, winning the previous five races. That could all change this weekend as Ferrari are now the best team in F1. The last time they took the victory in Suzuka was back in 2004 with Michael Schumacher at the helm.</p><p> </p><h2>Key Stats &amp; Facts</h2><p>· There is some talk the race could be cancelled on Sunday as a Typhoon is heading right in the direction of the track, should this happen it will be the first ever F1 race cancellation, pre-race due to weather.</p><p>· Should Hamilton win on Sunday he will officially have won the Championship this year. It will be his 7th F1 world title and his 4th in a row.</p><p>· There has been on average 2.1 DNFs in the previous five races. That is a relatively low figure considering the difficulty of the track, and most of that average all occurred in the 2017 race (5 drivers didn’t finish that day).</p><p> </p><p><strong>Betting Odds</strong></p><p>· Lewis Hamilton 7/4</p><p>· Charles Leclerc 7/4</p><p>· Sebastian Vettel 9/2</p><p>· Valtteri Bottas 9/1</p><p>· Max Verstappen 12/1</p><p>· Alex Albon 125/1</p><p>· Rest of Field 1000/1+</p><p> </p><h2>Verdict</h2><p>With this typhoon apparently going to hit the track on Saturday for qualifying it could all get a little bit crazy should FIA decide to go ahead with qualifying. I have not had much success this year in qualifying betting but if you want to have a bet on this market, especially considering it might be a messy qualifying. Red Bull to qualify on pole position is available at 10/1 with Bet365.</p><p>I can see a lot of value this weekend with Max Verstappen, the track should suit his car and he is a bit of a specialist in wet races. Currently available at 12/1 with William Hill and between 7/1 and 10/1 with most other bookies, I highly advise taking this William Hill price now. I feel he will go in to 9/1 at least if we are guaranteed a wet race even before qualifying. Moreover, Verstappen has finished on the podium at Suzuka in the previous three races and finished on the podium on 50% of his last eight races this season.</p><p>Its going to be a washout and usually in f1 when we see these conditions a lot of drivers struggle. I think the safest bet this weekend is under 16.5 classified drivers. This means we need at least five drivers not to finish the race. This market is usually set at 17.5 but the bookies have adjusted accordingly due to the typhoon we are expecting, I still think we are getting some slight value here at odds of 5/4. Make sure to do this bet in the 3-way market on bet365.</p><p>Its very hard to judge what is going to happen on Sunday with this typhoon. Therefore, I don’t feel confident in taking on too many serious bets. This weekend my focus will be on a few outsider bets that could occur due to the weather conditions. I think having a look at Sergio Perez and Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top six is well worth a shot in these conditions. Hulkenberg is available at 4/1 whilst Perez can be bet on at 6/1. Both drivers have been in good form lately and finished inside the top 10 in their last four races.</p><p>Follow me on twitter @oblivionsports for weather updates and any race cancellations plus any additions bets I might add for the race on Sunday.</p><div><strong>Recommended Bets:</strong></div><ul> <li>Max Verstappen race winner each way 13.00 (12/1) <a href=";a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">with William Hill 1 unit each way</a></li> <li>Under 16.5 classified drivers 3-way market 2.25 (5/4)<a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Place your bets with Bet365"> with Bet365 2 units</a></li></ul><div> </div><div> </div><div><strong>Recommended Fun Bets for Interest:</strong></div><ul> <li>Race winner to start 5th, 6th or 7th on the grid 17.00 (16/1) <a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker">with Betfair 0.5 unit</a></li> <li>Charles Leclerc not to be classified 7.00 (6/1) with Sky Bet 0.5 unit</li> <li>First car to retire from the race Toro Rosso 6.50 (11/2) <a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">with Ladbrokes 0.5 unit</a></li> <li>Sergio Perez top 6 finish 8.00 (7/1) <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Place your bets with Bet365">with Bet365 0.5 units</a></li> <li>Nico Hulkenberg top 6 finish 5.00 (4/1) <a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">with Ladbrokes 0.5 unit</a></li></ul><div> </div><div style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></div></div>
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