Formula 1 Spanish GP: It’s Now or Never for Ferrari to Get Their Act Together

Eric Kelly

Thursday, May 9, 2019 5:31 AM UTC

Thursday, May. 9, 2019 5:31 AM UTC

One win in the previous ten years for Ferrari doesn’t give them much chance this weekend. Meanwhile Mercedes aim for Spanish GP hat trick.

<div><h2><strong>Preview</strong></h2><p>Valtteri Bottas has clearly proven a point after the last race in Baku. That point being that Lewis Hamilton is going to have a fight on his hands if he is to retain his championship. Having not won a single race last year he has now won two out of the four so far this season. He is currently one point ahead of team mate Hamilton thanks to the fastest lap he set in the opening race in Melbourne.</p><p>What a disappointment Renault have been so far this season, Daniel Riccardo must feel a little bittersweet, last year they were clearly the best of the rest outside of the big three and would have been even further ahead of team Haas only they had nine retirements to Haas’s six. Looking like Renault might be even closer to Red Bull this year Riccardo jumped ship only to end up retiring in 50% of this year’s races so far and inside of the points only once.</p><p>This has to be the perfect scenario for Ferrari to make a stand. Coming to a track where they have been weak in previous years, coming off a bad start to the season, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Although Mercedes have been strong in Barcelona the last two years, I do feel the track suits the Ferrari slightly better.</p><h2><strong>Key Stats &amp; Facts</strong></h2><p>Surprisingly Ferrari has won the most at Circuit De Catalonia since it became the Spanish GP. Most of the wins coming in the Michael Schumacher era (8 wins in total).</p><p>Only three races at this track from 1991 to 2017 were won by the pole sitter.</p><p>Ferrari has only won two of the last twenty races.</p><p>Valtteri Bottas only held pole position twice in all of last season. If he gets pole on Saturday it will be his third pole from five races this year and also a hat trick of poles.</p><p>There have been on average four DNF’s in the previous five races at Catatonia.</p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><strong>Betting Odds</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>*Lewis Hamilton – 6/4<br />*Valtteri Bottas – 5/2<br />*Charles Leclerc – 9/2<br />*Sebastian Vettel – 5/1<br />*Max Verstappen – 12/1<br />*Pierre Gasly – 150/1<br />*Rest of field – 1000/1+</strong></p><h2><strong>Verdict</strong></h2><p>Max Verstappen has to be respected at circuit de Catalonia. It’s where he got his first ever Formula 1 victory and besides the one year he didn’t finish the race he has stood on the podium every other time. Verstappen has been consistent this year, finishing inside the top four on every occasion. Best odds available for Verstappen to win the race are at 12/1 (bet365). A bet I like much better is Verstappen top 3 finish at 15/8 (sky bet).</p><p>We have had a negative last two races since we started betting the Ferrari and fading Mercedes. However I will pull the trigger for a third time this weekend on the Ferrari team. There is not much value with Mercedes and I think Vettel at 5/1 is the best bet here, he has finished third in the last two races, and all he needs is a bit of luck on his side. Even if Vettel does not produce I’m confident enough in my prop bets to have a winning weekend.</p><p>“The Iceman” Kimi Raikkonen has proven to be consistent so for this year I’m liking him to set the fastest lap here at 66/1, the hope is that all the top racers will be too embroiled in a battle for the top five and Raikkonen has enough space between him and the next racer that he decides to go in and put a fresh set of soft tyres on and try set the fastest lap for that extra point. It’s a gamble worth taking at nice big odds of 66/1.</p><p>Although I am fading Mercedes this weekend I will be betting Hamilton if he has a bad qualifying and drifts out to maybe 3/1. As we know Romain Grosjean and Deniil Kyvat love crashing unfortunately the bookies have copped this also and there is next to zero value in taking them not to finish. It’s a bet I would play every week only for the low price. Hopefully we can find some value in this bet later in the season.</p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><strong>Recommended Bets</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=df66db4b-b019-4343-9fc7-6c4f20e2a356&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Sebastian Vettel race winner 5/1 (Paddy Power) 1u</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Max Verstappen top 3 finish 15/8 (Bet365) 0.5u</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Kimi Raikkonen top 6 finish 3/1 (William Hill) 0.5u</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Either Mercedes not to finish 4/1 (Betway) 0.5u</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Carlos Sainz not to classify 9/4 (Betway) 0.5u</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>Kimi Raikkonen Fastest lap 66/1 (Bet365) 0.5u</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Formula 1 Betting Odds"><em><strong>First car to retire HAAS 6/1 (Bet365) 0.5u</strong></em></a></p></div>
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