Ian O'Sullivan @CyclingBetting takes us through the Giro d'Italia Stage 11 route through Carpi, Novi Ligure and offers his best tip.
<p style="text-align:center"></p><h2 style="text-align:left">Giro d'Italia Stage 11</h2><p></p><p style="text-align:left"><strong>Carpi - Novi Ligure<br />Wednesday 22nd May, 206kms</strong></p><p>An almost identical stage to stage 10 - 206kms of flat nothingness along the Po valley. Lots of long, straight, flat, open roads, although there is a slightly uphill finish to this sprint at least.</p><div><h2 style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://ms.sbrfeeds.com/redirect-proxy/redirect/?url=http://cdn.media.cyclingnews.com/2018/10/31/1/stage_11_profile_670.jpg" style="width:600px;height:382px" /></h2><h2>Contenders and Favourites</h2><p>A very similar stage to today, only a lot longer. There will be three sprinters less going for the win though with Moschetti, Marezcko and Ackermann all on the injured list. Will Viviani finally get his win? He looked in a great position today to finally take revenge for his earlier disqualification, but just chose the wrong wheels and didn’t have the kick when he tried to go after Demare. He looks to be lacking something, whether it’s confidence, motivation or just the power in the legs, he just didn’t have it.</p><p><strong>Arnaud Démare</strong> showed real strength today to start his sprint from a long way out and to hold it all the way to the line. Jacobo Guarnieri was superb in leading him out, if he can reproduce that again tomorrow, Démare has to have a big chance of winning again, especially as it is slightly uphill, it will suit him more than some.</p><p><strong>Caleb Ewan</strong> looked in a great position heading in to the last 500m with Jasper de Buyst taking a big turn to try to get him in the best possible position inside the last 300m.. but Ewan just didn’t have the kick, he was even passed by Rudiger Selig, Ackermann’s leadout man in the dying strides.</p><p><strong>Giacomo Nizzolo</strong> seems to be getting fitter and stronger as the race goes on. He still seems to lack the sprint to beat the top guys here, but he might not be far away again and could represent some each-way value at 20/1 in what could be another messy sprint.</p><p><strong>Davide Cimolai</strong> similar is always just lurking in the shadows outside the top 5, he'll be top 10 again, but not podium. And then we have Rudiger Selig.. With Ackermann out of the sprint today he went for it himself and managed to finish 3rd ahead of Ewan, a pretty impressive sprint from the lead-out man.</p><p>As it's highly likely that Ackermann will not even be sprinting tomorrow, maybe Selig will get the chance to go for it again. The onus will not be on Bora to make any effort to control things now, so they might be able to sit in and have Schwarzmann try to pull him into position in the last 300m and let him go to see how he gets on. I think it would be a big surprise to see him podium again though.</p><p>The bookies have made <strong>Viviani</strong> the 2/1 favourite, and to be honest I am reluctant to back him, even at that price given how he went today. Démare isn't much bigger at just 5/2 but he would be a bit more attractive to me given what we saw today, but anything can happen, as we saw today so he doesn’t offer a huge amount of value either.</p><p>Not a day to get heavily involved in though, I'm looking forward to Thursday's stage though, have lots of thoughts on break candidates for what should be a break stage I think. But I can't see Ackermann involved, he'll be very sore tonight and will have a rough night's sleep, and will be stiff and sore tomorrow too - we may not even see him sprinting at all. We have to take him on in a match bet, along with Nizzolo, he might go well tomorrow.</p><h2>Giro d'Italia Stage 11 Bets</h2><p><strong><em>1pt e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 20/1 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&f=1" target="_blank">Bet365</a></em></strong></p><p><strong><em>Nizzolo to beat Lonardi and Viviani to beat Ackerman – 3pts at 4/6 for the double</em></strong></p></div>