Ian O'Sullivan @CyclingBetting takes us through the Giro d'Italia Stage 14 route through Saint Vincent, Courmayeur and offers his best tips.
<div><h2><strong>Giro d'Italia Stage 14</strong></h2><p><strong>Saint Vincent - Courmayeur<br />Saturday 25th May, 131kms</strong></p><p>The shortest road stage of the Giro at just 131kms, it doesn't mean that it's going to be easy though with a very hard day in the saddle ahead of the riders with over 4,000m of vertical gain.</p><h2>The Route</h2><p>A short and very intense high mountain stage. The only flat stretch of the stage, 14 km out of 131, is around Aosta. Otherwise, the road goes either up or down. After the Verrayes categorised climb and after crossing Aosta, the route takes in consecutive climbs to Verrogne (13.8km at 7.1% and 15 km downhill), Combes (up to Truc d’Arbe, 8.2km at 7%), Morgex and Colle San Carlo.</p><p>The Colle San Carlo is a nasty lump, averaging 9.8% for 10.5kms, with several sections at 10% and more. The route then drops sharply to La Thuile and Pré-Saint-Didier, where the old road eventually leads to Courmayeur.</p><p>The final climb is 8 km long, sloping at 6% for the first 3 km, then at 2-3% for the next 5 kilometres, all the way to the finish.</p><p><img alt src="https://www.procyclingstats.com/images/profiles/ap/bb/giro-d-italia-2019-stage-14-profile-1ebce04273.jpg" style="width:600px;height:268px;" /></p><h2>Contenders and Favourites</h2><p>Can the break make it again tomorrow? It's a short stage, so if a break does go, it will need to go early and build up a lead quickly, as the GC teams could really kick this one off early in an effort to try to shake things up again.</p><p>I think <strong>Astana</strong> will be on the war path tomorrow, they will be looking to get revenge for what happened today. <strong>Miguel Ángel López</strong> came back very strong, but clearly burnt a lot of matches doing so, he probably would have been able to ride away from Nibali/Roglic and go with Carapaz and Majka. He will have the squad with him tomorrow I think, Bilbao, Izagirre, Hirt etc will be tasked with ripping it up the earlier climbs to shed domestiques and give him a chance to attack hard on the San Carlo.</p><p>I wouldn't be surprised to see him and <strong>Mikel Landa</strong> do a two-up attack again, like they did yesterday and forge ahead with 5kms or so to go to the summit. If the two of them come to the finish together, then there's only one winner I think, Lopez will easily outsprint him.</p><p>Landa looked great today, but the one small concern I'd have about backing him at just 5/2 tomorrow is that he put a lot in to today's stage and might just think about holding back a little until Tuesday.. But I don't think he can afford to, he has to keep trying to take time, and he'll be able to rest Sunday a bit and then it's a rest-day on Tuesday.</p><p>Can<strong> Primoz Roglic</strong> unhitch the anchor he has tied to Nibali's back pocket and go on the offensive tomorrow? He is frustrating the Shark, he's starting to annoy him now.. But he's right to watch Nibali, he's technically his biggest danger. But in doing so he has let a lot of guys back in to the race who were more or less out of it - Mollema is a threat (but will probably fade next week), Zakarin is a big threat now, Majka is a threat, Carapaz is a threat.. It's a lot more open than it was just two days ago. But this stage could well still come down to a reduced bunch finish of maybe 10 guys, and if so, Roglic would be one of the favourites in the uphill sprint finish.</p><p><strong>Rafal Majka</strong> and <strong>Bauke Mollema</strong> will be looking to take back more time too, but Mollema looked shattered at the end today and Majka might not be able to shake off the Movistar guys or Lopez, and he wouldn't have the best sprint from a reduced sprint.</p><p>The other guy I like again for this, was my other pick for Friday’s stage, <strong>Richard Carapaz</strong>. He absolutely flew up that last climb today, he clearly has very good legs. And I think this finish suits his attacking style very well, its a similar sort of finish to the two stages he has won here before. At around 5/1, I think he's a good bet to nothing, he'll be right up there</p><p>A lot of other guys really struggled today, including Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves, Hugh Carthy, but will they be able to bounce back tomorrow? So, it's a tough one - I think there are a lot of reasons to back both Lopez and Carapaz, only a few reasons not to. One of the reasons not to with Lopez is because rain is forecast at Courmayeur tomorrow afternoon. That could make the descent of the Coll de San Carlo pretty treacherous, and that could go against Lopez a little I think, he can be quite the tentative descender, but Carapaz seems to have no problem with the rain.</p><h2>Recommended bets:</h2><p><strong>Richard Carapaz each way at 7.5 (13/2) - 1.5 Units with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&f=1" target="_blank" title="Unibet Odds">Skybet</a></strong></p><p><strong>Miguel Ángel López</strong><strong> to beat Simon Yates and Domenico Pozzovivo to beat Giulio Ciccone 2.2 (6/5) – 2 Units</strong></p></div>