Giro d'Italia Stage 16 Cycling Betting Tips: Lovere - Ponte di Legno 226KM

Ian O'Sullivan

Monday, May 27, 2019 8:25 PM UTC

Monday, May. 27, 2019 8:25 PM UTC

Ian O'Sullivan @CyclingBetting takes us through the Giro d'Italia Stage 16 route through Lovere, Ponte di Legno and offers his best tips 

<div><h2>Giro d'Italia Stage 16</h2><p><strong>Lovere - Ponte di Legno<br />Tuesday 28th May, 226kms</strong></p><p>They return from the second rest day to another brute of a stage, but without the legendary Passo Gavia that was originally on the schedule. It has been removed due to an excessive amount of snow and ice on the descent, but they will still be taking on the Passo Del Mortirolo towards the end of the stage.</p><p>They climb more or less from the start and climb for 28kms, then descend 8kms before climbing another mountain of 9kms in length, but neither of these climbs are even categorised and are just warm-ups to the main events to come. The Cevo and Aprica are tough, but nowhere near as bad as the Gavia would have been, but after 15kms of valley road they start on to the Mortirolo - 11.8kms long at 10.8% with over 30 switchbacks along the way.</p><p style="text-align:center;"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5cec48b115309e9f86b55b2b/original-giro-chart-16" style="width:700px;height:296px;" /></p><p style="text-align:center;"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5cec492d15309e9f86b55b2c/original-giro-chart-16" style="width:700px;height:730px;" /></p><div><h2>Contenders</h2><p>This has been priced up as a GC stage, with all the GC favourites at the top of the betting. Hard to argue against it though, it is likely that the GC men will come back after the rest day and be ready to try to blow this race apart once again.</p><p><strong>Richard Carapaz</strong> looks like he is in such form that he could still be on the offensive - he probably knows that he needs maybe another 30" to be able to relax a little going in to the TT, and a 10" bonus for winning tomorrow's stage would go nicely towards that.</p><p>He looks so much stronger than a lot of the others right now and confidence is coursing through his veins at the moment. He is capable of going with the likes of Yates and Nibali when they go on the attack, he could well jump away from them again if they wear themselves out while he sits on their wheels.</p><p>And even if he doesnt' jump away, and they come to the final climb together, he is also capable of jumping away again, that gradient on the final climb is perfect for him. Lots of ways he can win it, lots of reasons why (he needs time, he's probably the best climber in the race at the moment, got a super team with him to set it up for him).. After backing him on Saturday, I don't think we should desert him and should be on him again tomorrow.</p><p><strong>Vincenzo Nibali</strong> is joint 11/2 favourite, and he has to be respected of course, he's starting to come alive.. But how does he win it? I think the only way he can is by being right at the front going over the top of the Mortirolo and descending like a lunatic again to eke out a small advantage starting the final climb, and maybe he can hold on. He has to start taking time back very soon too, he's running out of chances to really make a serious move for victory.</p><p><strong>Simon Yates</strong> is finally starting to come in to some form, he has been a lot more impressive in the last two stages, sprinting away from the others in his small group to take 3rd on stage 15. He's 6/1 but I'd actually give him a better chance of winning than Nibali, he is a lot more capable of escaping at the moment and looks really fired up now to start moving up the GC again. A stage win would make up a lot for the disappointment of how the race has gone for him.</p><p><strong>Miguel Angel Lopez</strong> has been a major disappointment this Giro, he just hasn't looked himself at all this race. We've not seen any of his searing attacks, he can barely follow the wheels when the big moves go and has just shipped more time to his rivals in almost all the key stages. It's hard to see him pull something out of the fire tomorrow and win this stage.</p><p>Carapaz's team-mate <strong>Mikel Landa</strong> is one who has fond memories of the Mortirolo as he has won a stage of the Giro in the past that went over the Mortirolo. Landa is highly capable of being able to attack on the Mortirolo and ride away from all these guys, he's not the worst descender in the world, so could hold his advantage starting the final climb.</p><p>If Yates, Roglic and Nibali start attacking each other to no effect and Carapaz just sits and marks all of them expertly like he did on Sunday, then Landa will just pull out more and more time. As much as I like Carapaz for this stage, I'm very tempted by this reasoning and logic to back Landa instead.</p><p>And <strong>Primoz Roglic</strong>... despite his issues on Sunday, he is still in the race - he is capable of probably taking 50" out of Carapaz on the last day TT, but he needs to take some time back to ease the pressure a little bit. He has looked on a few occassions in the last few days like he is struggling now to go with some of the big accelerations when they come, is he capable of fighting back and showing them he's still here and should be feared? I’m not sure.</p><p>After that you are looking at long shots like <strong>Giulio Ciccone</strong> who will be after the KOM points on the Mortirolo, but I'm not sure the break will make it tomorrow. I think things will kick off early and they will be caught on the Mortirolo.</p><p>Same goes for the likes of De Gendt, Ivan Sosa, Eddie Dunbar, Mikel Nieve, Valentin Madouas, Alexis Vuillemoz, Fausto Masnada, Pelle Bilbao, Ion Izagirre, and Joe Dombroski who are possible breakers, but again, it will be hard for them to go all the way I think. And the likes of Hugh Carthy, Bauke Mollema, Rafal Majka, Ilnur Zakarin, and Davide Formolo just don't look like they have the legs to be able to ride away from the top GC guys here.</p><p>This could be another brilliant stage – we should see M-S help Movistar to control things and chase the break, as I think Yates will really fancy a crack at this stage too. We should also see Pozzovivo and Caruso come to the front on the Mortirolo to try to set up Nibali for an all-or-nothing attack down the descent. But I still think Movistar will hold most of the aces for this stage and Landa e/w at 8/1 looks alright to me, but I'm also going to cover on Yates, as I think he'll be the fastest in a sprint, but also could be capable of attacking away to win.</p><h2><br />Recommendations:</h2><p><strong>1pt e/w on Mikel Landa at 8/1 with Skybet</strong></p><p><strong>1pt win on Simon Yates at 6/1 with various</strong></p><h2><br />Matchbets</h2><p><strong>Yates to beat Lopez and Masnada to beat Conti - 1pt at 7/4</strong></p></div></div>
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