Giro d'Italia Stage 19 Cycling Betting Tips: Treviso - San Martino di Castrozza (151KM)

Ian O'Sullivan

Thursday, May 30, 2019 8:55 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 30, 2019 8:55 PM UTC

Ian O'Sullivan @CyclingBetting takes us through the Giro d'Italia Stage 19 route through Treviso to San Martino di Castrozza and offers his best tips.
<div><h2>Giro d'Italia Stage 19</h2><p><strong>Treviso - San Martino di Castrozza<br />Friday 31st May, 151kms</strong></p><p>A short stage at just 151kms, but with everyone thinking about the brute of a stage the next day and the final TT after that, could it be another day that the breakaway makes it all the way?</p><p>I think the break have a great chance of staying away, the GC teams are tired by now and there is a colossal stage through the Dolomites to come tomorrow.</p><h2><strong>The Route</strong></h2><p>A relatively easy opening 60kms with just a small little 5km climb to get over 17kms in, a perfect launching pad for the break of the day, as you'll need to be able to climb to get over the final climb of the day. The first real obstacle comes after 60kms and tops out at 66.6kms gone, a bad omen for some? It's not an easy climb though at 7.1% average but is followed by a descent/flat roads for the next 40kms or so.</p><p>There's another little bump with 36kms to go, then it's on to the final climb which is a very steady climb all the way, averaging 5.6% for 13.6kms, but all bar the first 2kms are more like 6.3% average. It looks steeper on the profile, the way it kicks up steeply like that, but 6.3% isn't very steep, it's just that it drags on and on like that final climb to Antholz on Wednesday, only that was a bit steeper, around 8.5%.</p><p><img alt src="https://www.procyclingstats.com/images/profiles/ap/dc/giro-d-italia-2019-stage-19-profile-f0d3e9d55e.jpg" style="width:600px;height:268px;" /></p><h2>Contenders</h2><p>So we're going in to the break lucky dip again and seeing who we can try to come up with for this one</p><p>If think <strong>Esteban Chaves</strong> is holding back for Saturday, so maybe one of the other M-S guys will fancy giving it a go today. <strong>Mikel Nieve</strong> might like it a bit steeper for the final climb, but if it does come to a shoot-out amongst a group of tired guys over the last 6kms or so, he'd be one of my favourites.</p><p>Astana will be keen to get a man up the road too I think, maybe <strong>Jan Hirt</strong> will have recovered from his ordeal on the Mortirolo stage by now, and will be all out to take revenge for his loss to Ciccone. In fact, any one of Hirt, Pelle Bilbao, Ion Izagirre or Davide Villella could fancy this, but will they be looking to save them for a possible all-out assault by Miguel Angel Lopez on Saturday's stage.</p><p>AG2R will be buzzing after their stage win, we might even see Peters on the attack again. I picked Larry Warbasse two days ago, he didn't get away, but he seems to be going well, he was with the GC group right up until it was exploded by Landa and he came home just behind Eddie Dunbar. If he's still got good legs like that he might fancy it.</p><p><strong>Alexis Vuillermoz</strong> might be getting over his asthma scare on Tuesday, he finished 49th Wednesday, just a few minutes behind the GC group, This is a finish that would suit him if he can get in the break. I don't think there's much point in he holding back for Saturday, I don't think that's a stage for him, so this is his last chance. At 66/1 he's worth a shot, I think he'd be 33s for this if he hadn't had his asthma attack.</p><p>Of course there are loads of others who could go in the break, we could name 30 guys and maybe still not pick the winner, we could get another Cima-type result like today. But if it comes to a GC battle, which is very possible too, who are we looking at to maybe steal the stage? <strong>Richie Carapaz</strong> is clearly in brilliant form and probably still needs more time to be safe. I think he'll be trying to skip away again on that final run-in, but whether it will be for the stage win, or just to gain time on his rivals after the stage has been won is the question.</p><p><strong>Mikel Landa</strong> looks like he can ride away from all of these guys whenever he wants, and he has been making noises that he still thinks he can win this Giro. But will he try tomorrow or save it all for an all-or-nothing attack on Saturday? He's unlikely to take the time needed in one go on Saturday, so he might have to start taking a minute or so tomorrow if he can.</p><p>It's been a hugely disappointing Giro for <strong>Miguel Angel Lopez</strong>, he will desperately want something to save the race for him and a stage win here would do nicely. The last few kilometres look perfect for him to attack.. Carapaz and Landa might just let him go, keeping an eye on Nibali and waiting for their own chances to attack away to try to steal some time. He showed good power and acceleration at the end of stage 17, if he can do that and the others pause, he might be gone.</p><p><strong>Simon Yates</strong> just doesn't look capable of riding away from these guys at the moment, he was disappointing again on Antholz, and Bauke Mollema, Rafal Majka and Pavel Sivakov also look like they are just about hanging in there rather than looking like they will be able to ride away from the likes of Mikel Landa or Richard Carapaz. <strong>Vincenzo Nibali </strong>will try, he will probably attack a few times, but he just doesn't seem to have the power and the acceleration to get away and stay away.</p><p>It is a very, very open stage, and you can see that just by looking at the prices, the bookies haven't a clue who's going to win.. I think I'll plump for a selection of breakaway riders again and see if yet another break can make it all the way. But also. I think if it comes back together, <strong>Miguel Angel Lopez</strong> might just have it in him to attack hard enough with about 3kms to go, and maybe, just maybe, Landa and Carapaz will let him go in order to just mark Nibali and the others and save their legs for the final two stages</p><h2>Recommendations:</h2><p>0.5pts win on Mikel Nieve at 25/1</p><p>0.3pts win on Alexis Vuillermoz at 66/1</p><p>0.3pts win on Larry Warbasse at 150/1 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Unibet Odds">Unibet</a></p><p>2pts on M A Lopez at 7/1 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Betway Odds">Betway</a></p><h2>Matchbets:</h2><p>Carapaz to beat Nibali - 3pts at 5/6 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Bet365 Odds">Bet365</a></p></div>
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