IPL 2019 Betting Match Eight: Six Doesn’t Sell

Ed Hawkins

Thursday, March 28, 2019 8:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 28, 2019 8:21 PM UTC

Ed Hawkins (@cricketbetting) says punters should not confuse a good team as one which hits the ball out of the stadium in IPL 2019

<h2 style="text-align:center">Sunrisers Hyderabad v Rajasthan Royals</h2><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/cricket/in/indian-premier-league/rajasthan-royals-vs-sunrisers-hyderabad-3726754/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Friday 28 March 14.30, Rajiv Gandi International Stadium</strong></a></p><p>We’re eight games into IPL 2019 and this is the first game where punters are likely to wonder about an opportunity on the match odds markets. Sunrisers Hyderabad, last year’s runners-up, are no better than 8/11 (1.73) <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">with Betfair</a> and <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=df66db4b-b019-4343-9fc7-6c4f20e2a356" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join Paddy Power Today!">Paddy Power</a> while the Royals get a 5/4 (2.25) quote from Betfred.</p><p>To be fair, that’s exactly the sort of odds we would expect. In other words they’re right. And as any punter worth his or her salt knows, we only take on prices which we can believe to be wrong.</p><p>It is tricky to make a case for either team. Sunrisers were beaten in their first outing against Kolkata Knight Riders when their bowlers inexplicably fed the strength zone of Andre Russell. Royals were also defeat (against Kings XI Punjab) and although there were mitigating circumstances (<a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tips/more-sports/ipl-update-jos-buttler-dismissal-deemed-legal/89678/" target="_blank" title="IPL Update: Jos Buttler Dismissal Deemed Legal">the disgraceful mankading of Jos Buttler</a>) we’re not fond of the <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tips/more-sports/rajasthan-royals-ipl-2019-team-profile/89570/" target="_blank" title="Rajasthan Royals: IPL 2019 Team Profile">Royals roster</a> in terms of balance.</p><p>So that leaves us with little option but to peruse the side markets. Fortunately, we think there’s a rick. It’s on the most sixes market. Sunrisers are jollies but Bet365 price Rajasthan at 23/20 (2.15). We’ll take that bet.</p><p>For some time we’ve been convinced that the layers are just squeezing the numbers slightly from match odds to sixes markets, reckoning that the favourite to win the game is also favourite to win the match. This is wrong. There is limited relationship between a good team and one that hits loads of sixes. The real driver is number of fours hit.</p><p>An example? Last season Royal Challengers averaged a whopping ten sixes per game in first innings. They didn’t qualify. Chennai Super Kings, the champions, averaged eight. Sunrisers, the runner-up, 4.3. Rajasthan, another qualifier, 4.7. These were three of the four lowest averages. Kolkata, who did make the play-offs, hit the most with 11.8. For the record, Chennai averaged the most fours.</p><p>The strongest, or most dominant, teams don’t need maximums. But the limited and desperate do. When behind the run rate a losing team will throw more caution to the wind and go for the big shot. That’s why they can hit more sixes.</p><p>Another example. In the Bangalore v Chennai match in the first game of the season, RCB’s batting was razed by Chennai for 70. It was a humiliation and Chennai won easily. But who hit the most sixes? Neither. They managed one each.</p><p> </p><h2>Best tip for the match</h2><ul> <li><strong>Rajasthan most sixes 23/20 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a></strong></li></ul>
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