This will be an interesting stage that finishes like the Autumn Classic il Lombardia, with the climbs of Ghisallo, Colma di Sormano, and Civiglio coming before the downhill charge to the finish in Como.
<div><h2>Giro d'Italia St.15</h2><p><strong>Ivrea - Como</strong></p><p><strong>Sunday 26th May, 237kms</strong></p><p>Could it be that we see Vincenzo Nibali win on this course again, following his victories on this exact finish in Lombardia in 2015 and 2017? The blueprint on how to win this stage is well known now, with Nibali's wins coming from attacks on the Civiglio - but will it be different with a peloton of Grand Tour squads and several GC candidates looking to possibly gain time and bonus seconds by winning the stage?</p><p>There was a great win for our 13/2 shot Richard Carapaz today, he was outstanding in attacking away on the penultimate climb and comfortably holding the other GC men at bay all the way to the line, winning by enough, in fact, to take over the lead of the race.</p><h2>The Route</h2><p>After traveling across the northern Po Plain, the route goes back onto the recent “historical” course of the Giro di Lombardia in Asso. The route (237 km, the longest Giro stage) takes in climbs up Ghisallo, Colma di Sormano (but not the wall) and Civiglio. This is a tough stage, which may be even suited to Classics specialists.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5ce9b8f89924d616cd62dbb8/original-giro-chart" style="width:750px;height:402px" /></p><h2>Contenders and Favourite</h2><p>This was a stage that I had marked down as one for the breakaway and after watching the race over the last few days, and today, I'm even more convinced it will be a break day. Now that Movistar have taken the pink jersey, I think the race will calm down a little bit and be controlled by a proper team. I don't think this is a stage the GC men see as one that any great time gains can be won or lost, so might just dial it back a notch and let the break go.</p><p>So break candidates - UAE have lost the jersey, time to go stage hunting. Diego Ulissi has been relatively quiet of late, having to work for both Conti and Polanc, but I think he'll be let loose now and this stage looks a good opportunity for him. He has been 21st and 22nd in the last two Lombardia's, not far off the pace, but if he can get in a break he'll have a far better chance. 18/1 with Bet365 is ok to me.</p><p>One man from DQS who I like for this too is Bob Jungels. He has really had a nightmare race so far and languishes over 30 mins down on the GC. He has struggled on the climbs but has shown a lot of strength on the flat roads. If he can get in the break and is not with expert climbers, he might just hang in there and be able to attack on the run to the finish. 33/1 is alright, worth a small bet, win only, he gives us two chances as he could try a late attack if the GC men catch the break.</p><p>Enrico Gasparotto is another guy who has had a disappointing Giro, but he can maybe rescue something from it with a stage win here. He has finished 5th in Lombardia in 2013 and would be dangerous in this finish if he comes there with a small group. At 300/1, why not.</p><p>Giulio Ciccone is the favourite, but I don't think this finish is suited to him, he's far too short to me. Same with Thomas de Gendt, he hasn't looked himself this race and I'm not sure this is a perfect sort of stage for him either. As I said, I don't think it will be a GC day, so am ruling those guys out, for now, if it looks like the break is going to be caught, I might have a go on Simon Yates, who looks to be getting his legs back and might surprise them.</p><p><strong>Recommendations:</strong></p><p>1pt e/w on Diego Ulissi at 18/1 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&f=1" target="_blank">Betway</a></p><p>0.25pts win on Enrico Gasparotto at 300/1</p><p>0.5pts win on Bob Jungels at 33/1</p></div>