DaveBets has joined OddsMarket’s team of tipsters to offer his expertise on UFC and football. He discusses his approach to wagering, his greatest triumphs and up-and-coming fighters to keep tabs on.
<p><strong>How long have you been a tipster and which sports do you specialise in? </strong></p><p>I have been tipping sports since 2015 and I’m currently specializing in UFC and football - or soccer, as some like to refer to the sport in the wrong way! - working alongside some great people at OddsMarket and Tipsters Club. I do enjoy learning and gaining knowledge on all sports and some niche markets like TV/specials as well. For the past three years I have been studying NCAA basketball alongside the NBA. You never know when I might start a run in a new sport, but for now I’ll stick to my expertise.</p><p>I have been a football fan since being dragged to every single <a href="https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/sport/sport-opinion/ten-things-still-miss-highfield-9146300" target="_blank">Coventry City home and away game</a> through a family love for the sport, back when we were a <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/match/3310" target="_blank">Premier League side beating Man City with ease</a> - a distant memory now. Much like a lot of British sports fans, football was almost impossible to avoid growing up as it is a part of our culture. The memories given to me through attending a Saturday evening footy match with a steak and kidney pie and hot chocolate are truly irreplaceable. Funnily enough, I won a few bets when I was a child, putting a couple wagers on my club from time to time, so I guess you could say I started early.</p><p>My number one love - UFC - started when I found the <a href="https://mmapast.wordpress.com/2011/04/28/105/" target="_blank">UFC1 VHS tape</a>. I was a fan of wrestling at the time, so to see two men fighting for real was something unheard of back then in the late 1990s and early 2000s - other than in the streets of course. It was love at first sight and I have never turned back since. Thousands of shows and events later, I have been along for the ride since that day and plan to be around for many more.</p><h2><strong>What have been some of your biggest successes as a professional handicapper? </strong></h2><p>One of my most memorable wins has to be cashing in on Conor McGregor versus Jose Aldo back in December 2015. The Notorious One has famously been doubted over the years when facing a high calibre opponent but yet again he proved all the naysayers wrong in devastating fashion by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLCZ_B7FKc8" target="_blank">knocking out Jose Aldo within the first 14 seconds of the fight</a>. I have had a near perfect prediction on Conor McGregor’s UFC career and on this occasion I placed a £100 wager at a price of 5.50 (9/2) on him to win inside round 1.</p><p>Besides that, another memorable moment was accomplishing a 14-day win streak with a former tipster group I used to run and work for. For two weeks straight from a Sunday to a Sunday two weeks later I placed one or two winning accumulators every day and in a similar fashion. If you are tracking the current progress of Odds Market articles, <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tips/more-sports/the-weekly-punching-parlay-ufc-fight-night-146/89616/" target="_blank">you will see I’m trying to accomplish something similar with the ‘Punching Parlay’ entering its fourth week on a 4-0 win streak</a>.</p><h2><strong>What is your approach to sports betting?</strong></h2><p>One of the most important rules when investing your money into anything would be maintaining control of your bankroll. Sports betting is not the type of investment where you want to play around with your money. Put aside the amount of money you are willing to wager across a certain amount of time, break that money down into single playable units, e.g. £1,000 divided by 10 to equal £100 units, and then strategically wager your units with the system or method which has been successful in your field or market of betting. I feel like some people get scared, but it’s certainly not rocket science. If you stick to wagering the same amount of money across markets that you find success in the long term you will have a much higher chance of returning your investment at a high percentage.</p><h2><strong>Do you have any particular systems?</strong></h2><p>My system is pretty simple, especially when it comes to betting on the UFC. I will study the fights by watching and breaking down each person’s previous bouts. After coming up with a conclusion to who I think will be the successor in the fight, I will then proceed to have a look at the odds market and search for value. Anything below even money (2.0) usually deters me away, unless I have a highly confident read on the fight. When I like the look of two heavy favourites I will double the bet up and sometimes lower the risk and stake a smaller amount than maybe I would in a single bet, hence the birth of <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tips/more-sports/the-weekly-punching-parlay-ufc-fight-night-146/89616/" target="_blank">The Weekly Punching Parlay</a>.</p><p>Football is slightly different. I do take different approaches to football because a team game is totally different than betting on two people. There are a lot more factors to take into consideration when betting football, like team morale, home and away records and countless other elements to contemplate. Growing up in England it’s almost impossible to avoid becoming a football fan and I truly believe I will never bet a season of football and come out on the wrong end as long as continue to control my bankroll.</p><p>Ultimately I trust my control of the bankroll over any type of metric system or statistical history format and for anybody thinking about getting into sports handicapping or betting in general, just remember to keep stakes the same and pick your spots. Doing so will make times a lot easier when taking losses which are inevitably going to happen to everybody in the sports betting industry.</p><h2><strong>Do you favour stats and does gut instinct ever have a role to play? </strong></h2><p>I do favour statistics in certain spots but I also trust my own gut. If in any particular market both of these aspects came into play and I was stuck with my gut versus the statistics I would most likely chose my gut instinct. Numbers are great and statistics can really contribute to a good handicapper’s repertoire, but sometimes it’s about the here and now and, let’s face it, records are there to be broken.</p><h2><strong>What advice would you give anyone that is keen to get into betting on MMA/UFC? </strong></h2><p>I am a firm believer that you need to have passion in anything you put your money into. Never blind bet if it’s possible and even if you’re following somebody else’s advice always try and have a small lean yourself. Knowledge is power, and the more information you have on any subject is going to give you an advantage and that’s no different with UFC, football wagering or gambling in general.</p><p>Never place large amounts of money and waste units on heavy favourites because eventually that indestructible fighter or team will meet their match. I think the current percentage of straight favourite wins in the UFC is 40%, which is a huge 20% gap between betting on the underdog or under-priced fighter. Long-term, betting on heavy favourites is a sure way to damage your return on investment percentage.</p><h2><strong>Are there any lesser-known but promising fighters that our readers should keep an eye on in the months and years ahead?</strong></h2><p>Well Martin let me tell you, I could give you an entire 1,000-word write up on 50% of the upcoming talent coming out of the mixed martial arts world, but for the purpose of this interview I’ll try and keep it short and sweet.</p><p><strong>Kron Gracie -</strong> The son of legend mixed martial artist Rickson Gracie, Kron debuted in the UFC this year versus Alex Caceres, quickly submitting him in the first two minutes of the fight. I expect big things for Kron in the featherweight division and just by carrying the Gracie name he has all eyes on him.</p><p><strong>Isreal Adesanya - </strong>Since February 2018, Isreal has managed a 5-0 win streak in the UFC, complementing his prior 11-fight win streak and bringing his total wins up to 16. Recently defeating the legendary Anderson Silva in a convincing decision, Adesanya gets his chance at middleweight gold in April against his toughest opponent to date, Kelvin Gastelum.</p><p><strong>Sean O’Malley</strong> - The evolution of martial arts is a beautiful thing to watch as we see students of the game become masters and bring their new styles to the table. Unpredictable movement and martial arts training from a young age is creating a new hybrid of martial arts fighter which is no surprise within a sport that is just 26 years old. Sean O’Malley is one of these guys, with a current suspension fans are itching to see him return to the octagon and attempt to continue his impressive winning streak with his unique and yet equally dangerous style.</p>