Moto GP Aragon: Round 14 Preview and Best Bets

Eric Kelly

Wednesday, September 18, 2019 5:42 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 18, 2019 5:42 PM UTC

There's nothing to stop the Spanish riders in the Alcaniz heat

<div><h2><strong>Preview</strong></h2><p>Marc Marquez finally got back to winning ways at the Misano GP. He stalked rookie Fabio Quartararo from 2<sup>nd</sup> position for 20 laps and made his overtake on the last lap and went on to victory. No doubt Quartararo is Marquez’s biggest rival for the title in the upcoming years of Moto GP. He has proven to everyone he is a top-quality rider and has that grit and fighting spirit to take it to Marquez on the track. It wasn’t the best of weekends in terms of betting as I made a very poor judgment on my two pre-race picks (Cal Crutchlow and Andrea Dovizioso). Crutchlow ended up crashing out but ultimately had no peace all weekend and was down in 14<sup>th</sup> when he crashed, Dovizioso finished up in 6<sup>th</sup>. After viewing practice, I tipped-up Quartararo for the win at 5/1. Unlucky to be beaten on the last lap by the best rider on the grid.</p><p>We head to Alcaniz this weekend for the Aragon GP. This is essentially Marquez’s home race as it’s the closest track to where he grew up, it’s within a two-hour drive. Marquez has a very good record at his home track. I have been to this track before for a race. It’s almost like a desert out there, not much green threes or plants and its very warm and humid, The Spanish riders seem to cope best with this heat and the previous race results prove this. The previous seven winners have all been Spanish and even the two wins before that was Casey Stoner who is Australian who you would presume wouldn’t be no stranger to very humid, warm weather.</p><h2><strong>Key Stats &amp; Facts</strong></h2><ul> <li> <p>Marquez has only ever won or crashed out of the race at Aragon. Ultimately if he hadn’t of crashed out of those two races in 2014 and 2015, we could be looking at six wins in a row for the Spaniard.</p> </li> <li> <p>Marquez has only crashed out of one race this season and every other race he has finished in the top two. He has had five second place finishes and seven victories.</p> </li> <li> <p>There has been an average on 2.4 DNFs from the previous five races in Aragon.</p> </li> <li> <p>Moto GP hero and fan favourite Valentino Rossi is approaching his tenth race without a podium, if he does not make top three on Sunday it will equal his longest streak without a podium on a Yamaha.</p> </li></ul><h2><strong>Betting Odds </strong></h2><ul> <li> <p>Marc Marquez 7/4</p> </li> <li> <p>Andrea Dovizioso 6/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Maverick Vinales 6/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Fabio Quartararo 6/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Alex Rins 9/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Valentino Rossi 11/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Danilo Petrucci 28/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Cal Crutchlow 28/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Jack Miller 33/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Jorge Lorenzo 66/1</p> </li> <li> <p>Rest of Field 100/1+</p> </li></ul><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2><strong>Verdict</strong></h2><p>Judging from last year’s race and the track layout, Alex Rins should have good peace here in Aragon. Both Suzuki’s finished 3<sup>rd</sup> and 4<sup>th</sup> in last year’s race and were within three seconds of the race winner, with Rins finishing in 4<sup>th</sup>. His bike didn’t suit the track last time out in Misano, and he ultimately ended up crashing out of the race. That was his third race DNF of the season. I fancy Rins to better his performance from last year’s race and take a podium spot at the very least and hopefully a race win. We can get him at odds of 9/1 at Boylesports.</p><p>Cal Crutchlow has crashed out of the last two races here in Aragon, but I do believe he has some speed around here. Since he joined the Moto GP paddock back in 2011, he has had three top five finishes and three top ten finished on this circuit. If he can stay on the bike, he should take a top six finish at the very least and hopefully a podium place for Crutchlow backers this weekend. I am a little hesitant to jump right back on betting Crutchlow after his dismal performance in San Marino. I think he will want to bounce back from that and improve from having a slightly below par season. This is his best chance to do so. Amazing value this time around, we are looking at 28/1 on Crutchlow to get the race win.</p><p>My first official bet on the championship leader this weekend. It’s fair to say he is by far the best rider on the grid at the minute. He proved this by finishing first in the last race on a Honda, when every other Honda struggled that weekend on the circuit as it didn’t suit their bikes. He leads the championship by 94 points and at this current price of 7/4 (2.75) we must back him. It’s the best price I have seen all year for him to win on a track that he most likely will. Usually he is about 4/6 in these situations. Take Marquez now as his price will only get lower and lower throughout practice and qualifying. I think he will be down as low as 1/2 (1.50) on the day of the race.</p><p>My favourite bet is Marquez at this current price, but I wouldn’t bet him ant lower than 5/6 (1.83). I love Crutchlow at this price but 0.5 units each way max. Rins could surprise a few on Sunday and his bike does seem to know its way around this track, he is a solid price at 9/1 and worth a shot to cover our bets if Marquez surprisingly crashes or doesn’t win.</p><p><strong>Recommended Bets - All Odds with <a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds">Unibet</a></strong></p><p><em><strong>Cal Crutchlow 29.00 (28/1) with 0.5 unit each way</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>Alex Rins 10.00 (9/1) with 1 unit win</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>Marc Marquez 2.75 (7/4) with 1.5 unit win</strong></em></p></div>
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