Moto GP Argentina: Are We In For Another Wild Race In South America?

Eric Kelly

Thursday, March 28, 2019 8:03 AM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 28, 2019 8:03 AM UTC

Will there be a fifth different winner in six years in Argentina?

<p>The lights in Qatar have faded with Andrea Dovizioso coming out on top after round one and now we head to South America for another exciting race.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/rFtXhj2oBw0\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Preview</strong></h2><p>We witnessed an almost identical race in the opening round this year as we did in the previous Qatar race in 2018, with Dovizioso beating Marc Marquez by less than +0.100 of a second. There was so much to take from the first race this year. Petronas Yamaha are a LOT better than what people expected. Valentino Rossi is still one of the best after 24 years in the sport, as he started in 14<sup>th</sup> on the grid and stormed through the field to finish 5<sup>th</sup>. Cal Crutchlow had an amazing race after having a long winter recovering from a horrific ankle injury from which doctors said would take 12 months to recover, he recovered enough in five months to be able to ride the first race in 2019 and finished 3rd. Joan Mir had our hearts racing a little as we backed him at 125/1 (126.00) each way, he was up into third for half a lap. Jorge Lorenzo was on the wrong end of two bad crashes in practice and it seemed to hinder his race as he was ten positions behind teammate Marquez.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;“Don’t doubt me”: &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/calcrutchlow?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@calcrutchlow&lt;/a&gt; returns to Termas 👊&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;After an incredible injury comeback podium at &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/QatarGP?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#QatarGP&lt;/a&gt; last time out, can the 2018 &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/ArgentinaGP?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#ArgentinaGP&lt;/a&gt; 🇦🇷 winner repeat his success this year?&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/MotoGP?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#MotoGP&lt;/a&gt; | 📰&lt;a href=\"https://t.co/WjLg86XC9s\"&gt;https://t.co/WjLg86XC9s&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/k0kUXLmSnf\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/k0kUXLmSnf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— MotoGP™ 🇦🇷 (@MotoGP) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/MotoGP/status/1110942365479550977?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;March 27, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>Argentinian GP is usually one of the more exciting races in the calendar. This year is already looking like it will live up to that expectation. The weather report for Sunday’s race is giving rain. This always makes for exciting racing as some riders are better in wet conditions than others. In terms of the actual track difficulty, it’s pretty hard and some riders struggle here compared to most other tracks. We could not ask for a better second race than the madness that is the Gran Premio Motul de la República Argentina.</p><h2><strong>Key Stats &amp; facts</strong></h2><p>Argentina has been present on the Moto GP calendar since 2014. We have had four different winners in the five races with Marquez winning twice. Last year’s race was a total shock. Jack Miller won his first ever pole position. None of the top teams or riders finished in the top four in the race. Crutchlow won first place with Johan Zarco placing second and Alex Rins coming in third.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Relive the Top 3 craziest moments from the 2018 &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/ArgentinaGP?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#ArgentinaGP&lt;/a&gt; 💥&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;What will happen this year in Termas de Río Hondo? 🤔 &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/H5VDrw2N98\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/H5VDrw2N98&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— MotoGP™ 🇦🇷 (@MotoGP) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/MotoGP/status/1110949952224718848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;March 27, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>There has been on average 5 DNFs at this circuit in Argentina over the past 5 races. From all the riders on the current grid, Marquez has the most wins in the Moto GP class, crossing the finish line in first place twice. Honda seems to have an edge on this track out of all the other manufactures, they have had 18 winning riders, and second best is Yamaha coming in with 7 winners.</p><p>Dovizioso has never won on this track and over the past five years he only has one podium position. He would no doubt love to finish on the podium at the very least and keep his momentum going from his win in the first race. Marquez set the fastest lap at last year’s race (1.39.902).</p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><strong>Betting Odds</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Marc Marquez - 10/11</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Andrea Dovisioso – 7/2</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Valentino Rossi – 8/1</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Danilo Petrucci – 10/1</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Maverick Vinales – 10/1</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Jorge Lorenzo – 12/1</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Alex Rins – 12/1</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Cal Crutchlow – 14/1</strong></em></p><p style="text-align:center;"><em><strong>*Rest of Riders - 20/1+</strong></em></p><h2><strong>Verdict</strong></h2><p>As you can see from the prices above, this is a very unpredictable race, so many riders in and around the same price.</p><p>Whenever there’s a wet race track, the man to call in is the Australian Jack Miller. He is a wet race specialist in Moto GP, always out performing his bike in these conditions. He achieved his first (and only) win at Assen in 2016 under very wet conditions, his odds pre-race that day were 750/1, the biggest upset to date in Moto GP history. Miller took his first pole position on this very track last year in wet qualifying. So pay attention to the weather and be sure to get a bet on this guy if it’s a wet race.</p><p>It’s been a while since Rossi had a win (25<sup>th</sup> of June 2017) but he has finished in the top five on sixteen occasions since then and he also has been renowned as a bit of a wet race specialist. We can never doubt the ability of Rossi and let’s not forget he has been referred to as the G.O.A.T (greatest of all time). Maybe it’s time for Rossi to get back to winning ways? Give me rain and Rossi at 8/1 (9.00) and I will always take a punt on that.</p><p>As we discussed Crutchlow had an amazing comeback and a much unexpected result in the first race. Funny enough he is also a wet race specialist (I promise that’s the entire wet race list, along with Dovizioso) but he also won this race last year, so he definitely knows how to get a win here in the wet, like he did last year. Definitely can’t rule him out.</p><p>The way this is shaping up is kind of a weird one; the bookies are on to the weather situation for sure. We are seeing a lot of riders priced around the same value, it’s difficult to find an edge or get a decent price. We might have a dry race, who knows what the weather Gods will deliver. In that case the race opens-up and many riders have the chance to win it. I don’t feel confident betting riders based on what the weather MIGHT be. I am breaking down my bets into a dry race or wet race.</p><p> </p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><strong>Recommended Bets Wet Race </strong></h2><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Jack Miller 22/1 William Hill 1pt each way</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Cal Crutchlow 14/1 William Hill 0.5pts each way</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Valentino Rossi 8/1 Betfair 0.5pt win</strong></em></a></p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><strong>Recommended Bets Dry Race</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Marc Marquez 10/11 William Hill 2pt win</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Fabio Quaratararo 50/1 Betfair 0.5pt each way</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&amp;a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Alex Rins 14/1 Betfair 0.tpt each way</strong></em></a></p>
comment here