Moto GP Assen TT: Will We Get Our 5th Different Race Winner this Time Out in the Netherlands??

Eric Kelly

Thursday, June 27, 2019 6:55 AM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 27, 2019 6:55 AM UTC

We already have 4 different race winners from the opening 7 races. We only had 5 different winners in all of last year’s championship; we could potentially end up with seven or eight winners this year. Wouldn’t that be exciting?

<div><h2><strong>Preview</strong></h2><p>Last time out in Barcelona was full of drama. What we witnessed was absolutely unbelievable, Jorge Lorenzo (Marc Marquez teammate) has been struggling to be fast on the bike all season long, mostly finishing races around 12<sup>th</sup> position. He started on the Grid in 10<sup>th</sup> place at Catalonia, towards the end of the first lap he was up to 4<sup>th</sup>. Finally Lorenzo has some peace we were all thinking. He then proceeds to get a bit excited by his peace and breaks super late on an already very hard corner to manoeuvre, to try and overtake a few riders. Unfortunately his bike goes from under him and he ends up wiping out Maverick Vinales, Andrea Dovizioso and Valentino Rossi and himself included. Essentially handing the world title to his teammate by taking out Dovizioso, as Marquez went on to win the race and now sits 37 points clear of second in the world title race. Mathematically the title is far from over but realistically Marquez chances of winning the title have gone from around 70% to 85% in my opinion.</p><p>Last year Marquez took the victory in Assen ahead of Alex Rins and Vinales. There was only 0.700 seconds between 2<sup>nd</sup> and 5<sup>th</sup> place. The track at Assen is more suited to the Yamahas and Hondas. There are no long straights for the Ducati capitalize and use its speed on the straight. Since 1990 Ducati have only won here once, back in 2008 when Casey Stoner took victory by 11.310 seconds and surprisingly his then teammate Marco Melandri finished dead last.</p><h2><strong>Key Stats &amp; facts</strong></h2><ul> <li> <p>The Dutch TT in Assen is the longest running event on the Moto GP calendar, first held in 1925 it’s been held here every year since. With the exception of the years 1940 to 1945 due to WW2.</p> </li> <li> <p>There has been on average 4.3 DNFs in the previous 5 races at the Assen TT.</p> </li> <li> <p>The rider with the most victories on this track is Moto GP legend Angel Nieto with 15 victories, and right behind him with 14 victories is another Moto GP legend Giacomo Agostini.</p> </li></ul><h2><strong>Betting Odds</strong></h2><p><em>*Marc Marquez 5/6</em></p><p><em>*Valentino Rossi 6/1</em></p><p><em>*Andrea Dovizioso 7/1</em></p><p><em>*Fabio Quartararo 8/1</em></p><p><em>*Alex Rins 8/1</em></p><p><em>*Maverick Vinales 9/1</em></p><p><em>*Danilo Petrucci 14/1</em></p><p><em>*Jorge Lorenzo 20/1</em></p><p><em>*Rest of field 30/1+</em></p><h2><strong>Verdict</strong></h2><p>Valentino Rossi is a bit of an expert on this track. He has won here the most out of everybody on the current grid, taking victory here a total of 10 times. Although he was on the best bike and much younger for most of them victories, he still managed to win here in 2017 and 2015 when he wasn’t fancied. Rossi has retired from the previous two Moto GP races, I fully expect him to finish the race this Sunday in Assen. Before his first Retirement in Italy he had previously gone 27 races without retiring. Only once in Rossi career has he retired from 3 races in a row, this was in 2011 when he was riding for Ducati, but there was a race cancelled in between those three retirements so technically he might have finished that race. It’s a bit of a risk betting Rossi to win this race considering how strong so many riders are, I also believe Rossi’s price to win at 6/1 and being second favourite is purely down to his past success at this track. I would wait until after qualifying and hold out for possibly a better price of around 10/1.</p><p>The new kid on the block Fabio Quartararo finished on the podium last time out in Barcelona, claiming the second spot in the race and also starting on pole position. He has been a breath of fresh air for us Moto GP fans and I fully expect him to be Marquez main rival in the coming years. He will most likely take Vinales or Rossi spot in Yamaha in the next year or two. Currently priced at 8/1 I would highly advise taking this price now as he is qualifying really well this year and if he continues to keep that up this weekend he will drift in after qualifying.</p><p>A rider we have only bet on once all season is Cal Crutchlow. This week we are back on the English born rider. Although his recent form has not been the best and he crashed out of the last race, he did give some very positive feedback that he is starting to feel good on the bike, the track here in the Netherlands suits his HRC Honda a bit better than a few other bikes and I feel he might pluck an each way and finish on the podium at odds of 33/1.</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Bets </strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Valentino Rossi 0.5units each way with Bet365 (if his odds hit 10/1 or better but must qualify in top 8 to be worth betting)</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Fabio Quartararo 8/1 Bet365 0.5units each way</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Cal Crutchlow 33/1 Unibet 0.5units each way</strong></em></a></p></div>
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