Moto GP Austria: Round 11 Preview and Best Bets

Eric Kelly

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 8:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2019 8:26 PM UTC

Is it Time For Jack Miller To Win Again For The First Time Since 2016?

<div><h2 style="text-align:center">Moto GP Austria</h2><p style="text-align:center"><em>Sunday, August 11, Track: Red Bull Ring</em></p><h2>Preview</h2><p>We waited three weeks for the Moto GP break to be over, we then had to wait an extra hour for the race to start due to track conditions, and then we witnessed one of the dullest races of the season so far. Marc Marquez easily won the race, leading the race from the first lap to the last. He won the race by a comfortable 2.4 seconds. Andrea Dovizioso finished up in second position, picking up his first podium finish in four races. Jack Miller claimed his second podium of the season. We (along with every other racing fan) thought Maverick Vinales was back in form after his two podiums in the previous two races, as usual he failed to impress for three races in a row and our each way bet on Vinales resulted in a loss as he finished down in 10th position.</p><p>Moto GP hasn’t been to kind to us this year. We have only made profit in three out of ten races so far this year, mainly due to the fact Marquez is always winning and is usually 1.60 or less to win, these prices aren’t worth a bet in Moto GP betting long term. Currently we have a deficit of -9.50 units, which is manageable to reduce and potentially finish up the season in a small bit of profit at least. There are nine races left this year, most of the tracks Marquez is strongest at are finished. By my calculations Marquez should get 3 or 4 more wins. This leaves 5 or 6 races where we could potentially profit.</p><p>Since the Moto GP added the Red Bull Ring back on the calendar in 2016 the only manufacturer to win have been Ducati. Andrea Iannone in 2016, Andrea Dovizioso in 2017 and Jorge Lorenzo last year. Marquez has been very close to winning in the past two years, finishing second on both occasions by less than +0.200 of a second.</p><h2>Key Stats &amp; Facts</h2><p><em>· Marquez has won 60% of the races so far this season.</em></p><p><em>· Marquez has never won at the Red Bull Ring.</em></p><p><em>· There have been on average 2 DNFs in the past three races.</em></p><p><em>· The Red Bull ring hasn’t got much recent Moto GP history. Before 2016 they last raced in Austria in 1997 when It was then a different track layout called the A-Ring.</em></p><h2> </h2><h2>Betting Odds</h2><p>· Marc Marquez 8/11</p><p>· Andrea Dovizioso 5/2</p><p>· Jack Miller 11/1</p><p>· Danilo Petrucci 11/1</p><p>· Alex Rins 16/1</p><p>· Maverick Vinales 16/1</p><p>· Fabio Quartararo 16/1</p><p>· Valentino Rossi 20/1</p><p>· Cal Crutchlow 20/1</p><p>· Rest of Field 50/1+</p><p> </p><h2>Verdict</h2><p>It’s hard to look beyond the Ducati’s to win at the Red Bull Ring. There are only eight corners and four long straights. These track conditions should suit their bikes perfect, the one concern I would have is they haven’t been in the best of form lately, only producing two from a possible eight podiums in the last four races. Another issue with team Ducati is we can never tell which rider is going to be in good form, as it only ever seems to be one at a time and never both riders (with the one exception being Mugello). Ultimately it comes down to price with my selections and with Dovizioso coming in at best odds of 5/2 I can’t bring myself to even blindly bet this, zero value even if he does end up winning the race. Judging by the season he is having so far, it’s very unlikely. He has only one victory from ten races and he won that race by +0.0023 seconds, that’s practically crossing the finish line at the same time at that speed.</p><p>Although it could be a Marquez / Dovizioso 1st and 2nd there is no value here. For me the value in Austria lies with Miller, and Rins. Both riders seem to have come back from the summer break in good form and will be looking to capitalize any mistakes this weekend at the Red Bull Ring. Millers Ducati should have the speed around this track. There is also a small chance of some rain on Sunday and Miller loves the rain more than anybody on the grid. Very rarely is Rins any more than 12/1, this weekend we can grab him at 16/1. His Suzuki is should go quicker than the Yamahas around this track, its difficult to call how good he can be this Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the podium.</p><p>I am taking a chance on one final rider. “The Doctor” Valentino Rossi, he hasn’t won all season long, has been very unlucky in a few races and hasn’t finished on the podium since the third race of the season. Winners come from the most unlikely of places sometimes and at 20/1 I’m having a small bet on Rossi.</p><h2>Recommended Bets</h2><p><a href=";a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jack Miller 12.00 (11/1) with William Hill 1unit each way</a></p><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Alex Rins 17.00 (16/1) With Betfair 0.5units each way</a></p><p><a href=";a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Valentino Rossi 21.00 (20/1) With William Hill 0.5units each way</a></p></div>
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