Moto GP Japan: Round 16 Preview and Best Bet

Eric Kelly

Wednesday, October 16, 2019 1:29 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019 1:29 PM UTC

Could this be the race were Quartararo gets his first victory and starts the process of deposing king Marquez? or will Dovizioso have other plans.
<div><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Moto GP Japan</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, October 20th, Track: Motegi Twin Ring Circuit</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"> </p><h2>Preview</h2><p>Although the championship has been over for the past 5/6 races, it was officially wrapped up last weekend as Marc Marquez took his 9th win of the season from 15 races. Fabio Quartararo almost won again but was beaten on the final corner of the race. If anybody deserves a win this year it is the rookie Quartararo, he has been the best rider on the grind all season in my opinion. We have four races remaining and he has stated that two of the upcoming tracks are his favourite.</p><p>Marquez is world champion again and we are not surprised at all. He was the heavy favourite preseason at around odds of 8/11 at best. He quickly drifted into around 3/10 around the 5th race of the season and never hit any higher than them odds after that. Marquez only needs 38 more points from the last 4 races to have the highest points tally of his career. Beating his 362 points total he set in 2014.</p><p>We are almost at the end of the season and I believe these last few races are were we can snatch up a few extra units to cap of the season. We must believe Marquez won’t be trying as hard now he has the title wrapped up and recent history backs this up, as his results have been considerably worse when he has the championship won. Other riders will be trying extra hard to get a transfer to better teams or trying to prove that their good enough to stay with their current team.</p><p> </p><h2>Key Stats &amp; Facts</h2><p>· There has been an average of 4.4 DNFs at the Twin Ring Motegi over the previous 5 Moto GP races.</p><p>· Honda have been very dominant in recent history at the Japanese GP, winning five of the previous eight races.</p><p>· The Twin Ring Motegi has been home to the Japanese GP since 2004, the riders refused to use Suzuka anymore after the death of Daijiro Kaito in 2003, stating the runoff areas were too outdated for the current Moto GP bikes. Although Suzuka did upgrade the runoff areas, Moto GP has not added it to the calendar since.</p><p>· Makoto Tamada is the only Japanese rider to win at this circuit in the Moto GP class.</p><p> </p><h2>Betting Odds</h2><p>· Marc Marquez 1/1</p><p>· Andrea Dovizioso 3/1</p><p>· Maverick Vinales 13/2</p><p>· Fabio Quartararo 13/2</p><p>· Alex Rins 12/1</p><p>· Valentino Rossi 16/1</p><p>· Danilo Petrucci 22/1</p><p>· Jack Miller 22/1</p><p>· Cal Crutchlow 28/1</p><p>· Franco Morbidelli 40/1</p><p>· Rest of Field 100/1+</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Verdict</h2><p>Besides Marquez, fellow Spaniard Maverick Vinales has been the most consistent rider recently, finishing on the podium in five of his previous nine races. Compare that to his first seven races of the season were he only managed one podium of those seven. Vinales will have a lot of work to do to beat off Marquez, Dovizioso and Quartararo and in my opinion possibly Jack Miller or Cal Crutchlow either. At these odds of 13/2 I will take a small chance of Vinales purely because of his form recently.</p><p>So many tracks recently have suited the Ducati bikes and they have been disappointing. This track is their best chance to pick up a final race victory of the 2019 season. Andrea Dovizioso was close to winning here last year but crashed out late in the race. The previous two years he finished 1st and 2nd at this circuit. I am not 100% happy with Dovizioso’s odds at 3/1, I believe they should be slightly higher giving Marquez’s dominance and the treat of Vinales plus Quartararo. I would recommend hanging around for a better price on this bet, 4/1 is reasonable but I personally want to wait for 5/1 and then bet him each way as there is value each way at 5/1 but not so much at 3/1 right now.</p><p>My final selection for the race on Sunday is an obvious one. The upcoming star of Moto GP, Quartararo. Its hard to oppose the Frenchman right now as he has been in top form lately, taking a spot on the podium in two of his previous three races and was beaten by Marquez on the final corner of the race on two of those occasions, he won’t let it happen a third time. Quartararo has said this track is one of his favourites to ride so he might have a small advantage if that is the case. I think we are getting super value on him at 13/2 right now, I was expecting him to open at around 5/1.</p><p>I don’t think Vinales or Quartararo will be 13/2 come Saturday evening so I would advise jumping on these prices right now. Although I really like Dovizioso to win I can’t justify his price right now, so I am only going to take him if he hits 4/1 and again if he goes out to 5/1.</p><p> </p><h2>Recommended Bets</h2><ul> <li>Fabio Quartararo <a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Unibet">each way 7.50 (13/2) with Unibet 1 unit each way</a></li> <li>Maverick Vinales <a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Place your bets with Ladbrokes">each way 7.50 (13/2) with Ladbrokes 0.5 units each way</a></li> <li>Andrea Dovizioso 0.5 units win if he drifts out to 5.00 (4/1)</li> <li>Andrea Dovizioso 1 unit each way if he drifts out to 6.00 (5/1)</li></ul></div>
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