Moto GP Le Mans Preview and Betting Tips

Eric Kelly

Thursday, May 16, 2019 8:12 AM UTC

Thursday, May. 16, 2019 8:12 AM UTC

Can up and coming Frenchman Fabio Quartararo repeat his pole position in France and cause a major shock? Or will one of Marc Marquez’s title challengers prevail?

<div><p>Only Spanish riders have won the last seven races in Le Mans, the way Marquez is riding his Honda this year it’s hard to see past the Spaniard winning here again for the second year in a row, but this track should suit the Yamahas and Ducati’s better than the Hondas. Does it really matter when the best rider in the world is up against you?</p><h2><strong>Preview</strong></h2><p>Last time out in Jerez things went straight forward and nothing unusual happened in the race. The one shock did come in qualifying as Fabio Quartararo took pole position at odds of 40/1, and his teammate started in second. It didn’t last long as Marquez overtook both riders before the first corner.</p><p>After crashing out of the American GP Marquez came storming back to win on home soil and claimed a very solid victory in Jerez. He has been unstoppable since coming into Moto GP way back in 2013. The way things are looking he seems set for another title this season. The one positive we can take from this year is how close the title race has been in these early stages of the season, just nine points separate the top four. This is far from over but if Marquez gets another win this weekend he will be slowly starting to turn the screw on the rest of the contenders.</p><p>The two Ducati’s have not been up to scratch at all in the opening races, only two podium finishes from a potential eight. To be even harsher both riders have finished every race. You could argue Andrea Dovisioso is only three points behind Marquez for the overall lead but you have to remember Marquez didn’t score any points from his fall in America, and he has more podium finishes on his own than both Ducati riders together.</p><p>It’s hard to have any criticism for Valentino Rossi, now 40 years of age, which has to play a small factor in his overall performance at least a little. He finished on the podium twice in a bike that is 3<sup>rd</sup> best overall, possibly even 4<sup>th</sup> with the performances Alex Rins is getting out of the Suzuki. His teammate Maverick Vinales is slowly improving race by race and if he can find some more consistency he might get involved in the race for the championship.</p><p>We can just write off Jorge Lorenzo this year as he is having his usual first season woes on a new bike. It also doesn’t help that he got a bad injury at the start of the season and isn’t 100% fit yet. Next year he should be more involved with the big boys and we will look forward to that a lot as he is the only rider who is on the same bike as Marquez.</p><p>Hands down Rins looks to be Marquez’s biggest concern right now for the championship. We could see him improving last season and now he is officially a danger. Stretching back to the end of last season he now has four podiums finishes from his last eight races and his worst finish has been 5<sup>th</sup>. He is Mr Consistency right now and only one point behind Marquez.</p><h2><strong>Key Stats &amp; facts</strong></h2><ul> <li>The last seven races have all been won by a Spanish rider and nine of the last ten coming from a Spanish rider, the exception being Casey Stoner in 2011.</li> <li>There is on average 6 DNFs at the Le Mans track.</li> <li>Valentino Rossi has finished on the podium 4 of the last 5 races at this track, the race he didn’t finish on the podium he crashed out.</li> <li>This is the track were the famous 24 Hour Le Mans race takes place.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Betting Odds</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center">*Marc Marquez – 11/13<br />*Andrea Dovisioso – 5/1<br />*Valentino Rossi – 8/1<br />*Maverick Vinales – 14/1<br />*Danilo Petrucci –14/1<br />*Alex Rins – 14/1<br />*Jack Miller – 16/1<br />*Fabio Quartarao – 18/1<br />*Cal Crutchlow – 20/1<br />*Jorge Lorenzo – 25/1<br />*Franco Morbidelli – 33/1<br />*Rest of Field – 100/1+</p><h2><strong>Verdict</strong></h2><p>The bookies have got to be having a laugh with some of these prices. I get that Moto GP has become much more competitive over the last few years but some of these prices or shockingly low. Quartararo should be at least 30/1, pole last time, home grand prix this time, still makes no difference to the fact theirs about 9 riders on better bikes. Jack miller is another price I think is too low. He only seems to win in the wet, although rain is scheduled for qualifying there is none forecast for the race on Sunday.</p><p>The one rider I do find some value in is Maverick Vinales. He seems to be getting into is stride and has a decent record at this track. 14/1 for him to grab his first victory of the year isn’t a bad bet. I also know Rossi will win a race this year and he is also another rider with a decent track record at Le Mans.</p><p>I have said this a lot in my articles. I can’t justify betting Marquez with these small odds when theirs riders at 5/1+ right behind him and all it takes is one fall or mistake. If we could get 21/20 at least, I would be slightly more willing to take him.</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Bets </strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Valentino Rossi 8/1 Ladbrokes 1unit win</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Maverick Vinales 14/1 Ladbrokes 1unit win</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Alex Rins 14/1 Unibet 1unit win</strong></em></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" target="_blank" title="Moto GP Betting Odds"><em><strong>Cal Crutchlow 20/1 Bet365 0.5unit win</strong></em></a></p></div>
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