Moto GP Malaysia: Round 18 Preview and Best Bets

Eric Kelly

Wednesday, October 30, 2019 2:56 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2019 2:56 PM UTC

Ducati must get back to winning ways and prove they are still relevant as title contenders for next season.
<div><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Moto GP Malaysia</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, November 3rd, 2019<br />Track: Sepang International Circuit</strong></p><p> </p><h2>Preview</h2><p>Marc Marquez won AGAIN, and why are we not surprised. He is just crushing the competition at this stage and its beyond fun to watch now. That’s five wins in a row, four of which he stalked his target to see where he can make his pass and were, they are slow / weak on the track. He then pounces on the final lap and goes on to win the race, it’s like DeJa Vu at this stage. Marquez now sits on 375 points in the championship, surpassing his previous total best of 362. He is 135 points ahead of 2nd in the championship (Andrea Dovizioso). That’s five race wins and a 6th place finish for those wondering how much of a points lead that is.</p><p>Our picks last week were a little unlucky as we had Fabio Quartararo (crashed lap 1), Maverick Vinales (crashed on the final lap from 2nd position) and Alex Rins who finished nowhere of note. We did soften the blow from the weekend as Andrea Dovizioso wrapped up 2nd in the championship, we had him tipped each way at 7.50 (11/2). Our overall units for the season are now at +9.33, we will look to protect this profit for the final two races.</p><p>Let’s look ahead to the Malaysian GP this weekend. We know Marquez is world champion, Valentino Rossi is currently having his worst ever season on a Yamaha, Ducati are nowhere near up to scratch and the one shining light in the paddock at the minute (Fabio Quartararo) has an injury, so even if he does race on Sunday he won’t be 100%. Looking back at recent years this race has only ever been won by a Honda or Ducati. All fingers point in the direction of another Marquez win.</p><h2> </h2><h2>Key Stats &amp; Facts</h2><p>· The Sepang International Circuit has been home to the Malaysian GP since 1999 and the teams have travelled here every year since to race.</p><p>· Valentino Rossi has the most victories at this track, racking up a total of 7 throughout all the classes. The only rider on the current grid that is close to him is Marquez with 3.</p><p>· There has been an average of 5.3 DNFs on this track over the last 5 races. That’s one of the highest DNF rates we have seen this season.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Betting Odds</strong></h2><div> </div><p>· Marc Marquez 7/5</p><p>· Maverick Vinales 7/2</p><p>· Fabio Quartararo 5/1</p><p>· Andrea Dovizioso 5/1</p><p>· Alex Rins 14/1</p><p>· Valentino Rossi 16/1</p><p>· Jack Miller 22/1</p><p>· Franco Morbidelli 33/1</p><p>· Danilo Petrucci 33/1</p><p>· Cal Crutchlow 33/1</p><p>· Rest of Field 100/1+</p><h2> </h2><h2>Verdict</h2><p>We are almost at the end of the season with just two races remaining on the calendar. I want to protect the profit we have at this stage of the year, especially considering Marquez is being so dominant right now, taking the top step on the podium in the previous five races. That’s not to say we will be passing on these last two races. I have a few riders I would like to pull the trigger on, especially after last week when were we saw Cal Crutchlow and Jack Miller place each way, both over 20/1. Marquez is really good value this weekend at 7/5 but I can’t pull the trigger on a rider with a five-race win streak, it’s bound to come to an end soon and I would hate if it came the one weekend, we bet Marquez.</p><p>My first bet this weekend is the Italian rider Dovizioso. At the very core of it all this is a Ducati track, and Dovizioso has won here in two of the previous three races. I think we could be in for one last epic battle between Marquez and Dovizioso this season. The season might be over, but Ducati will want one last win to see the season out, just to remind everybody that their still relevant and a threat to Marquez. At odds of 5/1 I will take Dovizioso this Sunday in sunny Malaysia.</p><p>Jack Miller has been hot and cold this season, which is why it’s very hard to bet on him, usually after he has had a good race, he has a bad one, so we expect some regression here based on history. I am not the biggest fan of betting trends as eventually they will be broken. With this track being slightly in favour of the Ducati’s (and Miller in good form and full of confidence from coming 2nd last week in his home GP) I like my odds of 22/1 each way on Miller.</p><div><strong>Recommended Bets:</strong></div><ul> <li>Andrea Dovizioso 6.00 (5/1) with 1u win <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">with Bet365</a></li> <li>Jack Miller 23.00 (22/1) 0.5u each way <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Well rated bookmaker">with Bet365</a></li></ul><div> </div><div style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></div></div>
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