Moto GP Valencia: Round 19 Preview and Best Bets

Eric Kelly

Thursday, November 14, 2019 10:58 AM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 14, 2019 10:58 AM UTC

Which Spanish rider will reign supreme on home soil in the final race of the season? Or will a certain Frenchman upset the party.
<div><h2 style="text-align:center">Moto GP Valencia</h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, November 17th, Track: Circuit Ricardo Tormo</strong></p><h2>Preview</h2><p>Its finally here, the last race of the season. I can’t believe how quick it has come around, it only seems like yesterday that Andrea Dovizioso won the first race in Qatar and we thought we were in for an exciting championship, it was not to be unfortunately. Five-time Moto GP champion Marc Marquez added his sixth title to his trophy cabinet this season, currently with a lead of 139 championship points on 2nd place (Dovizioso).</p><p>There is still something to ride for this Sunday in Valencia, the team standings. This is the total points of both manufacturers’ riders combined. Ducati currently have 432, whilst Honda have 430 (395 of which were down to Marquez, this doesn’t look good for Jorge Lorenzo and no doubt the former world champions value is down).</p><p>After a difficult start to the season for us (we were down to -15 units at one stage) Danilo Petrucci and Alex Rins saved us. Petrucci took the win in Mugello at 19/1, whilst Rins beat Marquez by the narrowest of margins in Silverstone and cashed at 20/1. Coming into the last race we have a profit of +7.33 units. I aimed for +25 at the start of the season, we most likely could have got near that number only for the dominance of Marquez. Let’s see can we make a few extra units on the final race of the season.</p><p><a href=";a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%;height:12px" /></a></p><h2>Key Stats &amp; Facts</h2><ul> <li>Marquez has set a Moto GP world championship record by raking up 395 total points (with this race in Valencia still to come). The previous record was 382 held by Lorenzo.</li> <li>The Circuit Ricardo Tormo is the only Moto GP track that you can see all the track from any vantage point.</li> <li>The previous race in Malaysia was won by Maverick Vinales, stopping Marquez’s five race winning streak.</li> <li>There has been an average of 5.3 DNFs at this track in the previous 5 races, that is very high, but we have to take note that 9 of those came in last year’s race. This was due to heavy rain.</li></ul><p> </p><h2>Betting Odds</h2><ul> <li>Marc Marquez 17/20</li> <li>Maverick Vinales 4/1</li> <li>Fabio Quartararo 5/1</li> <li>Andrea Dovizioso 10/1</li> <li>Alex Rins 12/1</li> <li>Valentino Rossi 16/1</li> <li>Franco Morbidelli 25/1</li> <li>Jack Miller 30/1</li> <li>Danilo Petrucci 40/1</li> <li>Cal Crutchlow 40/1</li> <li>Rest of Field 100/1+</li></ul><p> </p><h2>Verdict</h2><p>Marquez was finally stopped from winning last time out, although that didn’t stop him from starting 11th on the grid and finishing 2nd, loosing to eventual winner Vinales. As you can guess already that’s who I am betting this weekend. To be fair to Vinales he has finished in the top four in five of the previous seven races, and the two races he finished outside the top four he crashed out altogether. The track in Valencia has been kind to Spanish riders in recent years, winning in 9 of the last 12 races. Marquez only has the one race win here, which was back in 2014. I think Yamaha have the best chance of upsetting Marquez this weekend and the only Yamaha rider hot right now is Vinales.</p><p>My final selection for the 2019 season (I hope I don’t regret not picking Fabio Quartararo, who I have been on in 5 of the last 7 races, he is well overdue his first Moto GP race win and were else to do it than the last race of the season on Spanish soil) will be another Spanish rider, Alex Rins. He has superb form at this track, going all the way back to Moto 3, into Moto 2 and now Moto GP, the lowest he has ever finished has been in 5th, along with two podium finishes and a 4th place. He finished 2nd here last season, but I wouldn’t read a whole lot into that considering the wet conditions on the track, were 9 riders failed to finish the race, still I think he will want to finish the season strong and if he beats Vinales by nine points or more he will finish the season in 3rd for the overall championship. This should give him something to be motivated for having a good race, how can we pass up Rins at 12/1 in this spot.</p><p> </p><h2>Recommended Bets</h2><ul> <li>Maverick Vinales 5.00 (4/1) with <a href=";a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join Ladbrokes Today!">Ladbrokes</a> 1 unit e/w</li> <li>Alex Rins 13.00 (12/1) with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a> 1 unit e/w</li></ul></div>
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