NFL Week 1 | Best Bets: Predictions & Analysis

Jason Paglia

Saturday, September 7, 2019 9:33 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 7, 2019 9:33 AM UTC

Where's the betting value in Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

<div><p>The NFL regular season is upon us and I’m amped up. The six months it takes for the season to come back around feels like five years. So’ here is the game plan. Every week, in addition to the ‘Pigskin Parlay’, I will have 2 or 3 best bets for the weekend. If you read the Pigskin Parlay article you guys know how I feel about the beginning of the season. Be careful and don’t bury yourself in the first four weeks. Low volume / half units. If you are EV after four weeks you have set yourself up for a winning season. We are kicking Week 1 off with two best bets, so let’s get after it.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="" style="width:700px;height:493px" /></p><h2><strong>Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints</strong></h2><p>This will get your attention! it would not shock me at all if the Houston Texans walk out of the Super Dome with a victory. People are sleeping on the Texans. They are a very balanced squad that should win the AFC South now that the Colts are down a starting quarterback. It was not an accident the Houston Texans won 9 games in a row last season. They have a legitimate franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson that is finally healthy. They have one of the best wide receivers in the game in DeAndre Hopkins, and the offensive line finally came together with the addition of Laremy Tunsil. A solid offense and a defense that is projected to be the 3<sup>rd</sup> best in football and that’s a recipe for success barring injuries. 1 to 53 the roster has a enough talent to make the playoffs. The only thing that scares me when betting on the Texans is backing the head coach Bill O’Brien with my money. He is not a good football coach, but the team wins in spite of him. If someone else was coaching this team on Sunday I might take them to win the game outright but with that coach I need points.</p><p>The 2018 New Orleans Saints were one bad call away from a Super Bowl appearance. They are a very solid football team. The Sports Keg NFL Power Ratings have them ranked in the top 5 to start the season, BUT they are a team that usually takes a month to catch their stride. The first month of the season the last 6 years has been abysmal under Sean Payton and Drew Brees. With the exception of last season, the Saints have finished no better than 2-2, four of the last 5 seasons, and three of those seasons they started 1-3. It’s hard to have a let down spot in week 1 right? Although It does feel that way considering the recent history. Add in the fact that Drew Brees is 39 years old and one of these seasons his production will fall off a cliff and I just don’t see it any other way. The only opponent that he can’t beat is Father Time. Is this the year he comes for him? I don’t know, but if you are going to give me a touchdown head start on Sunday than f**k it, let find out. <strong>TAKE THE POINTS.</strong></p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>Houston Texans to win with +7 at 11/10 (1.91) with Bet365</em></strong></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em><img alt src="" style="width:700px;height:394px" /></em></strong></p><h2><strong>Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars</strong></h2><p>Patrick Mahomes set the NFL on fire last season. 50 touchdown and 12 interceptions. Put that into perspective. It could be the greatest season by a quarterback ever. The fact that I’s debatable is absolutely incredible. So, what on earth do we expect from the phenom this season? How do we bet on his games? Welp, for one I will be looking for unders in Chiefs games the first month until the books adjust to Mahomes coming back down to earth. It is not fair to Patrick Mahomes for me to say he regresses this season. What is regression, 36 touchdowns instead of 50? Considering Mahomes should be slightly more human this season, and the fact that Kareem Hunt is no longer a target, I think there will be values the first month betting the under.</p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Transitioning to the pick I’ve chosen I don’t see a scenario where they Chiefs don’t beat Jacksonville by more than 3 points. The KC defense has improved from free agency pick ups and we just covered what the offense is capable of, so who is going to be the Jags’ white knight? Nick Foles? I just don’t see it men. Is he an upgrade from Blake Bortles? YES. Is what Nick Foles did in Philadelphia nothing short of spectacular? YES. Do I think he can do it again in a new setting? NO. We have seen him in a different setting and it was god awful. The two things that Nick Foles doesn’t have this season in Jacksonville is, the Eagles offensive line and Doug Pederson as a head coach. I believe it was that offensive system that made Nick Foles great, not his skill set. I think Jaguars fans are set up for massive disappointment this season. The shining light on this Jaguars team is a great defense. They are projected to be the #1 defense in football over the Bears this season. Yet another reason why the under 51.5 looks good in this game if you are looking for a bonus pick.</p><p>If Nick Foles doesn’t consistently move the ball and score this game, the team is cooked. I just don’t think he will be able to score enough points in week 1. The Jaguars defense will be a good test for Mahomes to begin the 2019 season, and while I think it will be lower scoring than the experts think, Mahomes still passes the week 1 test with flying colors.</p><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>Kansas City Chiefs to win with -3 at 5/6 (1.83) with Betfair</em></strong></a></p></div>
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