NFL Week 10 | Pigskin Parlay: Predictions & Analysis

Jason Paglia

Friday, November 8, 2019 2:17 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 8, 2019 2:17 PM UTC

Steelers are still alive to make the playoffs, but does anyone have playoff faith in this Steelers team right now?

<div><p>Each week of the NFL season the Odds Market NFL team will release a Pigskin Parlay article. They may differ from week to week. One week it could be a Teaser, the next week it could be a spread or money line parlay. The goal, to finish the season with more units than we started with.</p><p>Through 9 week of the NFL season we are down two tenths of a unit with our Pigskin Parlay this season. Back to back weeks we won the first leg of the parlay but couldn’t slam the door on our last leg. Nonetheless we are down less than a quarter of a unit with half the season to go and plenty of time to pull a nice profit on the first season of the Pigskin Parlay. With that being said, let’s go to work and get this train back on the rails.</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Week 8: 2 TEAM SPREAD ACCUMULATOR </strong></h2><div style="text-align:center"><strong><img alt src="" style="width:700px;height:392px" /></strong></div><p style="text-align:center"><b>Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers</b></p><p>This is going to seem like such a square play here, but how do you not back the Rams in this spot? The public started to leave this team for dead two weeks ago. They were 3-3, had lost a couple in a row, and everyone started talking about the Rams finally coming back to the mean blah blah blah. A couple weeks later and the Rams are going for their 3<sup>rd</sup> win in a row against a VERY beatable Pittsburgh Steelers team, and I think McVay wants this one bad. If the Rams lose this game, they are in danger of not making the playoffs. They are 3<sup>rd</sup> in their division right now and they will probably stay there, even with a win. They are already fighting for the 2<sup>nd</sup> Wildcard spot. Realistically the Steelers are still alive to make the playoffs, but does anyone have playoff faith in this Steelers team right now? Mike Tomlin hasn’t even taken the training wheels off Mason Rudolph yet, never mind make the playoffs. The only thing that has kept the Steelers from having one of the worst records in the league has been the defense. Another year goes by and it’s another year the Steelers have a top 10 defense. At this point you can almost set your clock to it. I don’t think that defense will be good enough this week.</p><p>McVay comes in this week with an extra week to prep and a extra week for Gurley to get healthier. Brandin Cooks will not play this week for the Rams, which is undeniably a loss for the team. The good news is Woods and Cupp will play, and that is more than enough weapons for Goff to be effective. I think the Rams get the job done here. I don’t see how the Steelers keep up with this Rams offense all game. Is it a square move to back this team laying more than a field goal on the road? Probably yea, but it was also a square play to back the Cowboys on the road against the Giants at that price and they got the job done. Sometimes the better teams get the job done by margin. What is great about this game is we aren’t asking the Rams to pull margin here. We are asking them to win by 4 points and I think they will. Give me the LA Rams.</p><p><a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>LEG ONE – Los Angeles Rams -3.5 Points at 20/23 (1.87) with Pinnacle</em></strong></a></p><p><strong><em><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></em></strong></p><h2><b>Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns</b></h2><div> </div><div><p>Only twice in the last 30 years has a team with a 75% win percentage been an underdog to a team with a 25% win percentage in the regular season. So, with an outlier line like this, I always ask the question why? What is causing a historical precedent in this game? The conclusion I have come to is… I have no f*****g idea. The only possible explanation is the market thinks that Cleveland is historically underachieving, but are they? If you are familiar with my articles, I wrote an Odds Market season win total article in the offseason, and I thought the best AFC win total was the Browns UNDER 9.5 WINS. That looks rock solid right now. I think these Browns are slightly underachieving. They are talent stacked. When you look at this offense and the weapons they have, it’s amazing how bad this offense looks…. Or is it? Baker Mayfield is either in a serious Sophomore slump, OR this offense is bad because the captain that runs this ship is lost in space. I think it’s a little of both. Right now, the award for worse head coaching hire goes to the New York Jets front office for hiring Adam Gase, but Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens is a close 2<sup>nd</sup>. He looks completely overwhelmed and unfortunately for his team, when shit starts at the top of the mountain it always runs downhill. The bottom line is this Browns team is slightly worse than I thought they would be, nothing more nothing less.</p><p>On the other sideline this weekend stands the Buffalo Bills. Going back to this historic line, if the Browns need to be historically underperforming, the Bills must be historically overrated for this line to be historic. Are the Bills historically overperforming? No, they aren’t. The offense is dreadful, I will admit that. This has to be one of the worst offenses for a 6-2 team in 15 years, BUT this defense is phenomenal. This defense is the defense of a team with a 75% win percentage, and that’s the reason why this line does not make sense to me. I live everything about taking the 3 points on the road with this Buffalo team this weekend. That’s exactly why we are going to fade this historic line and take a shot with the Buffalo Bills this week. Book It.</p><p><a href=";a=dcba5f2b-1dd5-4c29-82c4-99531abcc5db&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>LEG TWO – Buffalo Bills +3 points at 50/59 (1.84)</em></strong><strong><em> with Matchbook</em></strong></a></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Pigskin Parlay Wrap Up</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>NFL Week 10: 2 TEAM ACCUMULATOR </strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>LEG ONE – Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at (1.87)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>LEG TWO – Buffalo Bills +3 at (1.84)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>TOTAL STAKE – (1.00 unit) TO WIN (3.44)</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong><em>SEASON RECORD (3-5)</em></strong><br /><strong><em>PARLAY BANK – (10 Units to start.)</em></strong><br /><strong><em>TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS – (-.17u)</em></strong><br /><strong><em>CURRENT BANK – (9.83 UNITS)</em></strong></p></div></div>
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