NFL Week 3 | Best Bets: Predictions & Analysis

Jason Paglia

Saturday, September 21, 2019 7:33 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 21, 2019 7:33 AM UTC

New England Patriots are far and away the best team in professional football, and by a wide margin.

<div><p>Alright, here we go boys. Week 3 is upon us and this is the first week you can start to feel comfortable about what you think these teams really. After week 4 is when the dust settles for an NFL handicapper, but the framework is set going into this week. Next week I would start betting full units on your NFL wagers. This week it’s status quo, half units. OK, I’m done now, lets do the damn thing.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="" style="width:700px;height:394px" /></p><h2><strong>New York Jets vs New England Patriots</strong></h2><p>So, let’s start with this, the New England Patriots are far and away the best team in professional football, and by a wide margin. In ‘The Sports Keg’ power ratings, we have the Patriots 2 points above the the 2<sup>nd</sup> best team in the league by 2 full points. That is substantial. Especially for this early in the season. So of course, I am taking the New England Patriots, right?</p><p>WRONG. I am sure you think I am crazy right now but hear me out. Are the New York Jets a good football team? No, they aren’t. They were up 16-3 in the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter of week 1 against the Buffalo Bills and they blew the lead. They ended up scoring no points in the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter losing the game 17-16. That was a bad look in a game they basically controlled from start to finish.</p><p>Last week the Jets were home against the Cleveland Browns. Starting quarterback Sam Darnold did not play due to illness, so it was up to backup quarterback Trevor Siemian to get the job done. Unfortunately, Siemian left the game with what looked like a gruesome leg injury. Needless to say, the 3<sup>rd</sup> string quarterback did nothing and the Jets were crushed 23-3.</p><p><a href=";a=9feaaf7a-d7a2-4185-974a-81ad171951df&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>So why I am I on the Jets? The reason is this, the Joe’s bet teams, and the pro’s bet numbers. This number is inflated by the 2<sup>nd</sup> wideset discrepancy compared to the Keg Power Ratings. I have the patriots 17 points better than the Jets at a neutral site, and if you add in the home field advantage the line should be an even 20. Right now you can get the Jets between +22.5 to +23.5 depending on how hard you line shop. That wide of a margin is an automatic bet, take the points.</p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>New York Jets +22 points at 11/10 (1.91) Bet365</em></strong></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="" style="width:700px;height:394px" /></p><h2><strong>Oakland Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings</strong></h2><p>Sticking with ‘The Sports Keg’ power ratings, another game that has a 2-point discrepancy is the Minnesota Vikings. According to the PR the line should have the Vikings -11, and the current line sits at an even 9. It’s not hard to see why. The Minnesota Vikings are solid from soup to nuts. I was on the Vikings last week and they fell just short and that was with Kirk Cousins throwing 2 interceptions in one of the most hostile stadiums in the league. They had every opportunity to win that game after starting the game down 17-0. They are a better football team then the effort they put forth last week.</p><p>On the other sideline stands John Gruden and his Oakland Raiders. To say the Antonio Brown era was short lived is an understatement. The stud wide receiver requested a trade and now he is a New England Patriot. So, where does that leave the Oakland Raiders? The analytics say, not in a good place. They are currently out of the top 20 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and almost as bad if not worse in team efficiency ratings.</p><p>Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has been a juggernaut against the spread in his tenure. Statistically he is the best coach in the league against the spread, hitting at almost a 65% clip. I was taking the Vikings based off the power ratings alone but, it certainly doesn’t hurt when you have the best coach ATS in the league on your side. Lay the points!</p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>Minnesota Vikings to win with -9 at 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365</em></strong></a></p></div>
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