NFL Week 4 | Best Bets: Predictions & Analysis

Jason Paglia

Saturday, September 28, 2019 10:28 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 28, 2019 10:28 AM UTC

The NFL full-units betting season starts now

<div><p>Here we go baby. Week 4 of the NFL season is here. We are just about a quarter of the way through the year and we are starting to see what these teams are. This point in the season is when you start feeling comfortable with your evaluations of these teams, which means you feel better about laying your money on the line. This is when I start betting full units on all my NFL plays. Below are two games that I’ve laid it on the line for.</p><p style="text-align:center"><img alt src="" style="width:700px;height:361px" /></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills</strong></h2><h2> </h2><p>Did anyone see the Buffalo Bills starting the season 3-0? Me either. To me, it’s very hard to judge just how good the Bills are this year. They have beat 3 of the 5 worst teams in the league this season. The Giants, Jets and Bengals are not exactly elite, they are really really bad. So it’s impossible to gauge them on the surface, you have to dig into the analytics.</p><p>What is undeniably rock solid on this Bills team is their defense. The stats say they are currently the 6<sup>th</sup> best defense in football, and the eye test tells me that is just about right. The bad news for the Buffalo Bills is they have an unimpressive offense. QB Josh Allen is playing better than he did last season, so I guess he has taken a step forward. The problem is he needed to take 5 steps forward to make this Buffalo offense a consistent scoring threat. I am still not sold on Josh Allen being a franchise QB. He has struggled against subpar defenses this year, and this week he has an impossible task in front of him. Beat the New England Patriots.</p><p>It’s scary to say this, but this year the New England Patriots have the best team they have had in a decade. It’s amazing, but they just keep getting better and better. The 42-year old Tom Brady gets the ball out of his hands fast enough to last another couple years. The Patriots still have the best coach to ever live, and it seems the championship train is going to keep moving forward.</p><p>The difference in this game for me, and the reason why the Pats are so good this year, the Patriots defense. In recent years the defense has been lacking but this season they have the best defense in football. The analytics LOVE this Patriots defense and the eye test agrees completely.</p><p>Both defenses will play well enough to contain these offenses. Bills QB Josh Allen is going to have an awful day Sunday against this defense. At the same time, the Bills and their top 6 defense should be able to somewhat contain this Patriots offense for a while. I do think the Patriots will eventually break through but even so I think it will be too late. Give me the under!</p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>Patriots / Bills under 42.5 at 11/10 (1.91) with Bet365 </em></strong></a></p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2><strong>Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans</strong></h2><p>I love this Houston Texans team. They are a last second field goal away from a perfect 3-0 start to the season. This is a team that is ascending. The defense is rock solid, and the offense has a stud quarterback, and the best trio of wide receivers in the league. The only unit that is below average for the Texans is the offensive line. They are really subpar and the reason why Deshaun Watson has been sacked a million times this season. All in all they have looked great.</p><p>On the other sideline, the Carolina Panthers are an average football team at best. The backup quarterback appears to have the entire world fooled by his solid QB play in Kyle Allen. He has taken over the offense due to an injured Cam Newton, and while he has looked good, last week it was against the worst defense in football. Will he be able to do that against a team that has 10 sacks in 3 games this season? Allen will feel the pressure this week for the first time this season.</p><p>What sealed the deal for me was the look ahead line from months ago. That line had the Texans as a 4-point favorite, and that was with a healthy former MVP in Cam Newton as the starting quarterback. With the line currently at 4, the betting market is trying to tell us that Kyle Allen is worth the same to the betting line as Cam Newton and I am not buying it. The recency bias has taken over in this situation. My power rating graded this game out at Houston -6.5 point which mean we have about 2.5 points of an edge. If that is the case, I am all over it.</p><p><a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>Houston Texans to win at 10/11 (1.91) with Unibet</em></strong></a></p></div>
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