NFL Week 4 | Pigskin Parlay: Predictions & Analysis

Jason Paglia

Friday, September 27, 2019 7:08 AM UTC

Friday, Sep. 27, 2019 7:08 AM UTC

The Patriots defense should swallow Bills' offense all day long

<div><p>Each week of the NFL season the Odds Market NFL team will release a Pigskin Parlay article. They may differ from week to week. One week it could be a Teaser, the next week it could be a spread or money line parlay. The goal, to finish the season with more units than we started with.</p><p>Through 3 weeks, we are (1-2) and down 1 unit. I think we get back on track here with a two-team money line parlay. We were dead on last week with the Rams, but fell one possession short with Seattle laying an egg at home against a backup quarterback. Onward and Upward. Let’s get after it.</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Week 4: 2 TEAM MONEY LINE ACCUMULATOR</strong></h2><div style="text-align:center"><strong><img alt src="https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/104985962-Tom_Brady.jpg?v=1532563690&amp;w=1400&amp;h=950" style="width:700px;height:475px" /></strong></div><h2 style="text-align:center"><b>New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills</b></h2><p>To me this game comes down to one question. Can the Buffalo Bills offense score on the number one defense in the league. To me the answer is simple, no. The Buffalo Bills have started the season 3-0 for the first time in a long time. It is not because the offense has looked spectacular, it’s because the defense has played well. Even though they are 3-0, who have they beat? The Giants, Jets and Bengals are not exactly 2019 juggernauts. In fact they are 3 of the worst 5 teams in the league. Bills QB Josh Allen has looked better to start the year than last season, but he still has a lot to prove before I can say he is a franchise quarterback in the NFL. The only chance that the Bills have to win this game at home is incredible play by this Bills defense. According to the analytics the Bills have the 6<sup>th</sup> best defense in the league, and that sounds about right to me. Can the Bills stop the Brady led offense from scoring on Sunday? I think the Bills will give the Pats trouble initially, but one thing we know about Tom Brady is he makes adjustments as good as anyone in the league.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=162&amp;a=ec641d03-1e6d-4096-9f5f-d2a6939022d0&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0005/1349915/Biggest-Ever-Bet-Boost-1280x480-English-UK.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Brady will eventually break through against this Bills defense and if that is the case, it comes down to to Josh Allen. Will Allen be able to keep with Brady and score on this Pats defense. In my opinion, not a chance. The Patriots defense should swallow this Bills offense all day long. Do I think the Pats are a touchdown better than Buffalo no matter where they play? I think so, but to be safe and get that unit back from last week, we are taking the Patriots on the moneyline. Do the Patriots lose the game outright? I would be stunned. Lay the money!</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=dcba5f2b-1dd5-4c29-82c4-99531abcc5db&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>Leg ONE – New England Patriots to win on money line at 10/31 (1.32) with Matchbook</em></strong></a></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong><em><img alt src="https://www.oddsshark.com/sites/default/files/styles/default/public/sb_news/2019/09/24/mahomes.jpg?itok=TeDxqvHo" style="width:700px;height:431px" /></em></strong><br /><b>Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lons</b></h2><div><p>This might sound ridiculous, but I think Patrick Mahomes throws a football better than anyone in the history od the sport. Don’t @ me. Is he the best quarterback right now, does he run a game the best right now? Probably not, but if we are talking about pure talent at the position, in my opinion the kid is the best to ever put a jersey on.</p><p>It was another winning week for KC last weekend, against a game Baltimore squad that has a bright future ahead of them. These stats are starting to become mundane, but they shouldn’t. The box scores that this kid puts up are ridiculous. Mahomes threw for 375 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. His decision making gets better every week, and this week he takes on a Detroit Lions team that will have a hard time keeping up. The market right now has the Chiefs as a 6.5 point favorite. We are staying away from the line and betting the money line again.</p><p>I was higher than most on the Detroit Lions coming into the season. In fact, in an earlier Odds Market article I picked the Lions to go over their season win total of 6.5 games. I like this Detroit team. I think they have shown improvement on the offensive side of the ball and I think they play much better at home than the road. The problem they will have this weekend is I don’t think the defense has a chance in hell at containing this juggernaut of a Chiefs offense. That will be their undoing in most games, especially this one.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="NFL Betting Odds"><strong><em>Leg TWO – Kansas City Chiefs moneyline at 20/61 (1.32) with Bet 365</em></strong></a></p><h2 align="center"><strong>Pigskin Parlay Wrap Up</strong></h2><p align="center"><strong>NFL Week 3: 2 TEAM ACCUMULATOR</strong><br /><strong><em>Leg ONE – New England Patriots money line at (1.32)</em></strong><br /><strong><em>Leg TWO Kansas City Chiefs moneyline at (1.32)</em></strong><br /><strong><em>TOTAL STAKE – (1.3 unit) TO WIN (1.00)</em></strong><br /><strong><em>PARLAY BANK – (9 Units to start.)</em></strong><br /><strong><em>TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS – (-1.00u)</em></strong><br /><strong><em>CURRENT BANK – (9 UNITS)</em></strong></p></div></div>
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